Sense Motive vs a written lie

Phlebas said:
true, but when I DM i quite like these little one off rolls where i can't quite decide what outcome will work best with the plot (or it doesn't make that much difference) and let the dice decide

Yeah, in my case its not simply a matter of plot convenience. I know that sooner or later the players will be found out in their lie. It is the 'sooner vs later' that this sense motive / bluff thing will determine. I am running Red hand of Doom, and the adventure is time sensitive. The fight that brought this about already cost the players most of a day. More delays can really cause them problems later on.

They at least bought them selves 3 days with no interference. If the villain is convinced by the message, the players can get another week without this villain getting in their way. If he is not convinced, then the players may only get say, 4 days before agents of this villain cause them more problems.

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If anything, this would just be a straight DC 20 Sense Motive check to make a make a Hunch to see if something is "off".

Hunch: This use of the skill involves making a gut assessment of the social situation. You can get the feeling from another’s behavior that something is wrong, such as when you’re talking to an impostor. Alternatively, you can get the feeling that someone is trustworthy.

How is he getting the letter? Who is delivering it to him? His 'charmed' minion? One or more of the PCs somehow 'disguised' as his leutenants? They sending it via snail mail?
 

The letter is being delivered by a Herald of Illien, which is basically a very well trusted messenger service often used for diplomatic communication.

Anyway, thanks. I think i have enough to go with here.

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