Shane Hensley comments on the RPG industry

[sunstaff]

I just want to start off by saying this has been an awesome thread to read with some real insight.

I am not a publisher, just a long time consumer.

I have one question: What does WoTC define as being a "good seller" 1000 units? 10,000 units? 100,000 units, or 1,000,000 units? or somewhere inbetween.

I always hear WoTC execs saying we sold "lots" of such and such, but what is "lots?"

Is everything compared to the PHB? or is it compared to last year or the pervious product in a line? Or is it compared to 3 years ago or what?

I have yet to see anyone ( a gaming industry exec)give some hard numbers on what defines a "good" seller?

Secondly, As far as d20/OGL or whatever. I see it as the best marketing i've ever seen in the industry. I do think it has accomplished "exactly" what WoTC wanted it to.

I look it as a Beta vs VHS example. Was Beta better?, some STILL say yes. Why did it die, because it was held out to be exclusive to sony. Other makers could make a VHS which could do exactly the same thing at 2/3 the cost. Soon there was 100 makers of VHS glunting the market, and only 1 Beta, which no one with the VHS could use. Hence, beta died.

Same goes for Apple Mac, there was a 1000 IBM comps out there, and only 1 Mac. The only reason Apple is still alive today is because they made the MAC IBM comp (PowerMac), and then made it look cool, ala IMAC

Where am I going with this? well easy. Will D20 be the only player in the ball game 5 years from now. Probably not.

Will d20 Die off, certainly not. Its here to stay and maybe even has a bit more growth left in it. The cool thing about it is that it lets the little guy publish something, and actually get it into the marketplace.

But, What I will say Is I think there will be alot of "PowerMacs" of the RPG world out there. Alot of systems will become Dual-Stat.
Why, because D20 has a Mass Appeal, its easy to learn, and Easy to Use. PLus its now compatible with about 100 other games.

There was nothing cooler then having Darth Vader fight my friend's PC D&D Elven warrior.

Thirdly, If a player DOES'T like d20 for all of the above reasons, and gets into a "dual-Stat" game, and likes that alternative system, then bingo, he goes what he wants BOTH ways,.

Lastly If you don't want to pay $50 for an WotC book, fine there are about 30 other Pubs out there who you can get "basically" the same stuff, at about the same quality, at 2/3 to 1/2 the price. Thats the power of d20/OGL

Will games like Gurps, Hero, etc still exist in 10 years time, yes, but unless they can present a clear alternative from d20 (alternative doesn't mean Better quality or usablity, but usally better MARKETING [VHS vs Beta example]) They likely (but maybe won't) will die out.

The RPG industry marketing is the same as all the rest, you have to market to the retailer to get him to carry the stock, and then market to the cumsumer to actually get him to pick it up of the store self. d20 does that the "best" of any system. Its a hard sell, and my hat is off to all that a "successful" at it.

Matt

 

[mythusmage]

Continuing This Topic Drift

Then you start using some form of "Massive Damage" rule.

The Man in White draws first (gains initiative) and plugs the Man in Black between the eyes (confirmed crit with a total of 21 points of damage on the 4d8 (2d8 base damage for an 1880 model .44 doubled for the crit)). The Man in Black falls to the ground, and rapidly expires. (Failed Fort Save followed by the ever popular bleeding to death.)

Or, you could freeze hit points. Make them equal to Con. Only by taking the appropriate Feat (learning the right skill) and improving Con. can the character get more hit points. Instead, he becomes harder to hit, since his defense improves along with everything else.

It's a rare problem that doesn't have a fix.

For instance. I have a big problem with the d20 System's Feats. The typical Feat is about as extraordinary an accomplishment as getting dressed in the morning. So I'm going to change them into skills for my Alan's Very Own Version of the d20 SRD along with a few other modifications. (An example on its way to the House Rules forum someday.)

The trick is not to say, "This can't be done." The trick is to find a way to make it work.

 

[hellbender]

Thorin pretty much got my point out there. I also meant that, in my experience, there are always more d20 products on shelves nowadays over non-d20. The support is there for most any genre you want to play d20. And that is fine, to a point. I feel that many retailers keep a heavy stock of d20 because it sells, due to the support and the innovation. It is a good system, and the d20/OGL license has created a lot of very good companies to spring up and provide excellent products. This has taken a lot of physical space and I see the glut as some so-so d20 products (all a matter of taste and perception) are taking room that other systems could use. For example; in my village, you have a choice: d20, Hackmaster, Hero, or White Wolf. There are a few Palladium books, but they are being rapidly phased out. I special order Deadlands (original system) books because I know the quality is there. I have a 30 mile drive to a town with most everything, which is odd, as it is an obscure semi-shop in the basement of a pharmacy which has the best selection.

D20 has years of life ahead, I just hope that many fine non-D20 companies out there are also kicking years from now, and that their quality isn't being overlooked now due to their incompatibility with the d20 sytem.

hellbender

 

[Michael Tree]

Um... i don't know, but maybe beacause they might have a MONTETARY INCENTIVE to do so knowing that investing in playtesting will show up in future sales through the credibility of the company.

You're being inconsistent. First you assert that the difference between good books and crap ones is overemphasized and sentimental on the part of game designers. Then you assert that the difference between good and bad products is sufficiently large that a designer would spend more time and effort on it.

Besides, people aren't as logical and foresighted as you assert. People spend more time doing things they like.

 

[Michael Tree]

Re: Continuing This Topic Drift

The trick is not to say, "This can't be done." The trick is to find a way to make it work.

It's because of this that more and more non-D20 OGL books will probably be published. The D20 mechanics are very flexible, and if the classes, levels, and ever-expanding hit points are removed, most of the major criticisms of the game are too. All these are possible. The OGL Mutants and Masterminds doesn't have any of them, except for a very loose 'level' mechanic.

 

[Ssendam]

I think that because of the open nature of d20 that we will never truly see an end to products that suck. Even as those products are weeded out, new publishers will fill in the ranks. I do think that it will be harder and harder for products (and companies) that are both NEW and GOOD to stand out and get attention. Hopefully that's where sites like EN World can play an important role.

Even if there was no Open Gaming Licence you would STILL get products that suck. Well, we did in the 90's didn't we? I stopped buying D&D stuff because it was so bad, expensive with little content. I'm sure there were some good things but I became quite negative after seeing some dreadful products.

At least now we have a market that anyone can enter and thus ,theoretically at least, we have access to many different ideas. In addition, on places like EN World you can find reviews to just about every product so the information on what is good or not is out there.

 

[Ssendam]

Strangely, CRPGs and "Pen and Paper" RPGs really don't appear to alter each other's sales. While some people do play both, a vast majority of computer gamers/console gamers do not bother with DnD. Could the millions of sales of the Baldur's Gate CRPG have driven a few sales of DnD material? Probably, but not enough to really raise eyebrows.

Patrick Lawinger

WARNING: There are, (IMHO), good reasons that until now the crossover is small:

1) For a long time to come computer AI will not be able to replace the challenge of playing the game with "real" people. The only way to get this experience is to go online which until quite recently was not satisfactory due to speed issues. Now that internet speeds are up, and access to these speeds is more affordable, (a trend that I'm sure will continue), the online experience will be more ... enjoyable.

2) Again, "until recently" RPG computer games online have not provided the right experience that would equate to a P&P session. I think this is down to game developers not producing the right sort of game and that is probably further linked to internet speeds. With the release of Neverwinter Nights a huge advance has been made. DM's can create online dungeons / stories and run them to a group with out needing the Books. OK, I exaggerate a bit, and no it's not perfect BUT, (and this is the telling comment), a freind of mine asked recently if he could borrow my NWN world builder handbook as he wanted to see about creating a dungeon online. As people invest time in looking at the system, and like what they see they will invest more time in it and less cash in P&P systems.

In short: in the past Computer Games have been a world apart from P&P RPGS, but the gap is closing.

 

[Umbran]

In short: in the past Computer Games have been a world apart from P&P RPGS, but the gap is closing.

As if sitting down at one's computer will ever seriously challenge sitting down at a table with actual people? Good gods! If it ever reaches a point where gamers start preferring interaction via a computer over face-to-face, we'll prove we're geeks far and above what the stereotypes say.

 

[Jürgen Hubert]

Hopefully, when ELH hits the SRD we will see some truely epic adventures.

Are there actually any plans for putting the ELH into the SRD?

 

[Buttercup]

Are there actually any plans for putting the ELH into the SRD?

Yes, according to Anthony Valterra. D20 Modern too, and something else that I can't recall...Manual of the Planes? Deities & Demigods? One of those.