Alright, so here is my takeaway of your above:
* Regardless of game, GMs are always oriented toward unraveling and discovering (this is a large area of disagreement).
So I don't agree with either of the above bullet-points and I folded that lack of agreement into my Starting Point > Obstacles Array > Endpoint model above. Some games and techniques require a GM be oriented toward unraveling and discovering. Some are absolutely the inverse (the GMs aren't discovering or unraveling...if play is, in any quantity outside of extreme exception, unmoored from what the GM already knows, then something has gone wrong).
I can clarify my meaning here. When I say "always oriented toward unraveling and discovering" I don't mean anything beyond those words, and I do mean what is contained in those words. First, I don't mean that the GM is doing nothing but unraveling and discovering: they are doing those things, and other things at the same time, or interleaved. Secondly, I mean both words fairly literally.
What does a GM always discover?
- What players say
- What the say in response to what players say, that they would not have said otherwise
- What the dice say (the outcomes of any random processes in the game)
- What happens, were it not for what the players said, they said, and the dice said
- What we hold true now over and above what we held true prior to those sort of events
Nothing about being moored to something you know necessarily gets in the way of the above discovering. What might GM unravel? I mean unravel in the following (actually quite literal) senses
- Untangling, e.g. when helping the group say who is doing what / is capable of what
- Straightening out, e.g. when properly applying the game text
- Clearing up, e.g. helping the group get clearer on how things stand in their game (fiction + system)
- Resolving, e.g. guiding the group to use the mechanics, and helping interpret / narrate the results
- Working out, e.g. helping understand puzzling elements, and their implications for play
Again, I think nothing about being moored to something you know gets in the way of the above.
Arbitrary fiat doesn't have to be "harmful" (in fact, it might be necessary for some forms of play) and the orientation of player :
* (I already talked about the value judgement above, but I'm going to talk about the actual process of play here) GM Fiat that is systemically and principally unconstrained (whenever you see me use "arbitrary", this is how I mean it...unbounded by narrowing game text constraints, driven by personal whim) is necessarily harmful to play.
I think - and please correct me if I am mistaken - that when you write "arbitrary GM-fiat" you mean in the case where it is
not constrained by system or principles. Where that trips me up is that when I think about the similar practice, I am in fact assuming the case where it is constrained. Something I probably see differently from others is that I count an agent as having "fiat" even if they exercise it within boundaries, provided that
within those boundaries they are unconstrained. Anyway, it turns out we're not applying the term to the the same behaviour or practice.
I also get tripped up on phrases like "necessarily harmful to play", but I think that can be easily untangled. As you know, I see freeform play as holding high virtue - fast-flowing, intensely engaging, highly responsive to player choices. Therefore I'm backed into a corner if one is going to say that...
"unbounded by narrowing game text constraints, driven by personal whim) is necessarily harmful to play."
Fortunately, that's not all you say!
Some games and techniques require a GM be systemically and principally constrained such that their decision-making cannot be mistaken for unbounded, personal whim (while in the middle of play or upon review or even in their own head!).
This I can get onboard with. Some "games and techniques" - indeed yes! Some very fruitful and enjoyable games and techniques, well worth playing. If that is the "play" we're saying is harmed, then okay!
At every moment their thinking is anchored to/captured by multiple constraining parameters (along multiple, often converging, axes). Whereas other games and techniques rely upon the GM being unconstrained and work their way artfully through play by feel and whim. They aren't incorporating various parameters of constraint in their cognitive workspace. They're just "doing their thing."
Would you agree that there are unfruitful limits in both directions. I feel like overly-constraining play can be harmful to it, just as much as going so far freeform that there is no purchase for players in the fiction.
The Conflict Matrix model I composed above relies upon agreeing with my directly above paragraph and disagreeing with the two bullet points above (which was my takeaway of your position).
To sum up, I think my argument in the first bullet does no harm to the matrix. Really, the matrix requires and produces very much the discovering and unravelling that I am picturing. The second bullet then seems like a case of meaning different things by the same term, with probably a touch of reflex on my side born out of my love of freeform RPG.