Parmandur
Book-Friend, he/him
You make some vslid points, in a somewhat familiar style, but a couple counterpoints:Your right and they are wrong, here is why:
Their arguements rely on the faulty premise that the Draconic Subclasses, Feywild Folk, and Draconic Options UAs don't feel Forgotten Realmsy enough.
This is flawed because:
1) The Forgotten Realms has more Dragon lore then any other setting, period. In 3e for example had an entire infinite plane devouted to nothing but Dragon Gods, Dragons, Draconic Creatures, Dragon God Worshippers (who if remember correctly became Dragons when their soul reached the plane) called Dragon Eyrie. Dragon Eyrie
Also there is some much Dragon Lore in the Forgotten Realms it got its on setting specific version of a Draconomicon type book call Dragons of Faerun.
There are main trilogies of FR novels where Dragons play the central role in the story, examples include Rage of Dragons and part of the Griffin Brotherhood.
Gem Dragons are major players only in the Forgotten Realms and Mystara settings (they are mentioned in a Planescape product), and these Gem Dragonborn take after the Psionic Forgotten Realms type of Gem Dragons NOT the Mystara Gem Dragons who had very different types like Jade, who weren't psionic and who weren't tied to the Gem Dragon God Saridor, the Ruby Dragon, FR Gem Dragons are. The only setting mentioned or hinted at in the Draconic UAs was the Forgotten Realms except for Fizban, who I will later show proves my point BECAUSE he's a wizard from Kyrnn (Dragonlance).
2) in the case of the Feywild Folk no other D&D setting has as much Feywild Lore as the Forgotten Realms. For example Nachtur a Feywild Gobliniod Kingdom currently invading the Moonshae Isles Nachtur and what setting is most likely to have new races like Owlfolk and Rabbitfolk dropped into it without angering fans (because it happens in every single edition its appeared in including 5e already, Chultan Tortles), the Forgotten Realms. The only setting mentioned in the Folks of the Feywild UA was the Forgotten Realms. Faerun is literally named after Faerie (Feywild) by the Elves see link below Faerûn .
One of the creator races of FR is Fey.
3) We know there is an MtG set coming out in the Summer called Dungeons & DRAGONS: Adventures in the Forgotten Realms. The symbol for the set is a Dragon's head, the way Strixhaven has an Owl as its symbol (Foreshadowing the magic owl subtheme were Owlin are found in most of the Colleges and Kasmina creates Fractal Owls to serve her). This suggests a major Dragons theme to the set and cards like Draconic Intervention, Magda, Dragon's Approach in previous sets foreshadow this as when Standard rotates, these cards will become too unsupported without more Dragons (including Dragonborn). So since AFR is likely to have a Dragon theme, that ties it into the rescent UAs as well. Also Commander Legends had two legendary creatures both from the same unknown setting, one was Turtlefolk (aka Tortles) and the other was Rabbitfolk. FR looks like it will be the only setting in MtG with both Rabbitfolk and Tortles suggesting they might be from the Forgotten Realms as new characters. It also occurs to me that if a Strixhaven Setting book got aborted, they could have decided to recycle the Owlin for the Forgotten Realms if they really loved the race, but decided that Arcavios wasn't ready for a setting book yet (its a new plane with 1 set).
Also AFR can't use MtG planeswalkers because for now they decided not to merge the multiverses, but WotC policy is at least some of the Planeswalkers have to come from a setting other then the one in which the set is based in. None of the Strixhaven Planeswalkers comes from Strixhaven's Plane of Arcavios for example. That is where Fizban comes in, he's likely a Planeswalker in AFR set visiting the Forgotten Realms from Krynn (remember that spell Dreams of a Blue Veil from TCoE, this is why this spell was there and why it specifically mentions Toril, Krynn, and Oerth in the spell). Even his spell Fizban's Platanium Shield is likely a card in AFR (Instant or Sorcery, maybe even an enchantment Aura), as they like a tie in card or two to the Planeswalkers that appear in a set.
4) They are spending way to much money on art, advertising, ect... on this AFR set not to milk it with max synergy, that means a Faerun Setting Book.
5) The SCAG is dead, WotC already largely picked over the choicest pieces of its corpse, although some of the fixed stuff could get reprinted, along updated Tasha style versions of Orcs, Aasimar, Genasi, ect... in a Faerun Setting Book.
6) Not one, but 2 AAA Forgotten Realms RPG games synergy.
So the question really isn't is a Faerun Setting Book coming, its when is it coming. Is it in the July slot, late summer September slot, fall/winter slot, or maybe early next year (one of the VRGtR writers said he was working on more South Asian D&D setting lore for WotC for 2022, and Forgotten Realms is one of the only D&D settings to have a fantasy South Asian cultures like Durpur.
1. The July books has been tipped to be the Adventure storyline for the year, which will probably tie in to the Magic Set.
2. SCAG is not dead, it's still in the top 20 selling RPG games on Amazon on a daily basis.