D&D (2024) Speculation Welcome: What's Next for D&D?

[UngeheuerLich]

Perhaps. But D&D has been enjoying an unprecedented moment of cultural relevance for almost 10 years now, and it surely has to end some time. A good candidate for that would seem to be the moment when WotC try to get lots of people to replace their $150 core rulebooks with some mechanically-similar $180+ rulebooks.

And with them betting big on D&D (with huge print runs and all the investment in Beyond) and with Hasbro relatively struggling and thus depending on them... I hope it works out for them, I really do. But this is also a moment of not inconsiderable risk.

I really don't think so. At some point you replace your old things anyway. After 10 years spending another few bucks is reasonable and it pales compared to the maintanance cost of other hobbies.

A better way to kill ot off is forcing new people to buy 10 year old books that are a bit outdated if you look closer (with tasha's guide's optional class features and xanathar's new encounter building rules and downtime activities).

At some point you have to face it. You are not the prime target audience anymore. If you actually replace your books, it is a nice bonus. Most money comes from people getting into the hobby.

 

[ART!]

It will be very interesting to see what kind of release schedule WOTC goes with for this 2024 edition, once the core books are out, and how that balances with digital releases.

 

[Micah Sweet]

Which will never happen. If D&D falters, it will go into the vault and will be used to brand cheap mobile games and coffee mugs.

Oh, well. We'll always have Paris...

 

[Micah Sweet]

I really don't think so. At some point you replace your old things anyway. After 10 years spending another few bucks is reasonable and it pales compared to the maintanance cost of other hobbies.

A better way to kill ot off is forcing new people to buy 10 year old books that are a bit outdated if you look closer (with tasha's guide's optional class features and xanathar's new encounter building rules and downtime activities).

At some point you have to face it. You are not the prime target audience anymore. If you actually replace your books, it is a nice bonus. Most money comes from people getting into the hobby.

Reasonable if you get something worthwhile for it. We don't owe WotC anything; they still have to release something worth buying, and what that is varies. A lot.

 

[Micah Sweet]

"Indie" is a great term. It would clearly differentiate what we're talking about -- and as @SlyFlourish has argued, now that 5E's SRD is in Creative Commons, "third party" makes a lot less sense now -- and frankly, indie bands are cooler than the big corporate label bands and that's often true in the RPG space as well.

I play a lot more indy computer games than I do anything from the so-called "AAA" companies.

 

[Micah Sweet]

I think it would be exceptionally hard for new core books published during the 50th anniversary year of Dungeons & Dragons to not sell like crazy. WotC has a knack for stepping on all the rakes they can find, but it would be really hard to screw this one up.

I have faith in them to find a way.

 

[Micah Sweet]

Perhaps. But D&D has been enjoying an unprecedented moment of cultural relevance for almost 10 years now, and it surely has to end some time. A good candidate for that would seem to be the moment when WotC try to get lots of people to replace their $150 core rulebooks with some mechanically-similar $180+ rulebooks.

And with them betting big on D&D (with huge print runs and all the investment in Beyond) and with Hasbro relatively struggling and thus depending on them... I hope it works out for them, I really do. But this is also a moment of not inconsiderable risk.

Yup. There are more people (a lot more people) than ever before that are now in the position we were in back in 2014, or 2008, or 2000, or 1989, where the company expects folks to just replace their core books. How many of those people are just going to throw that cash down and ditch the books for a game that got so many more people than ever into D&D?

 

[Micah Sweet]

You really wanting WotC to fail bad huh?

I would be fine if they did.

 

[Micah Sweet]

I absolutely believe Crawford, Perkins etc deeply care about RPGs the same amount as Corvelle, Baur, or Mona. There is a desire to hate WotC because it is so successful now and people will root for the successful people to fail for no other reason than spite.

You know what happens when WotC fails? RPGs go underground again. WotC has PHBs in Walmart and Target, not Paizo or Kobold. Game stores close without Magic support. You get small pockets from around fantasy heartbreakers and the hobby slides back to being in the back of hobby stores and comic shops. People drop out of the hobby. People never join it. We go back to the 90s.

D&D is the gateway to many RPGs, and losing that gate hurts all of them. Maybe Paizo or someone carries that banner until they too are acquired and the cycle repeats, but I'd rather not chance it.

To be fair, I feel the 90s was the golden age of gaming for me. Most of the product lines I enjoyed the most started back then.

 

[Yaarel]

To be fair, I feel the 90s was the golden age of gaming for me. Most of the product lines I enjoyed the most started back then.

Speaking "objectively":

1e Golden Age
2e Silver Age
3e Bronze Age
4e Iron Age
5e Classical Age

Note that "Gold" and "Silver" correspond to the Stone Age, with its simpler lower-heat metallurgies and lesser frequency of conflict before the Neolithic Revolution when groups fought over "territory".

What comes after the Classical Age, is Post-Classical (either an intensification of Classical or a disruptive mass-migrating Dark Age), then Medieval, then Modern. I expect this Modern to be a seemless virtual reality D&D.