Surprise or no surprise?

I would say bluff. Disguise isnt really relevent here unless you know this particular assassin and would recognize him. Otherwise he is just dressed like everyone else on the street. Even daggers and small swords were common on normal people in many socieities. The trick for the assassin is disguising his intention not his indentity. So it smells like bluff to me.
 

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I would use Bluff vs. Sense Motive if the would be assassin is in plain sight. I would presume there is no surprise unless the assassin succeeds with some means of throwing the victim(s) off guard. If you can see them, my presumption would be you are aware of them.

A successful Disguise might be good reason to give a circumstance modifier to the Bluff check, but blending in alone should not be sufficient IMO.

Casually strolling into a set ambush is quite a different thing.
 

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