(technical) How much energy would it take to warm the oceans by 1 degree Fahrenheit?

[Umbran]

Oh, yeah, those bombs.

Detonating one ton of TNT releases approximately 4x10^9 joules of energy. A one megaton explosion is one million times greater, thus 4x10^15 joules. Thus, the heat required is equivalent to that released by 6,450,000 one megaton bombs...

Now, let's talk calories.

2.58x10^22 joules is equivalent to 6.16x10^21 calories. That's 6.16x10^18 kcal, otherwise known as dietary calories.

This is roughly equivalent to the dietary energy in one teraton (1000 gigatons) of cheese...

 

[Crothian]

This is roughly equivalent to the dietary energy in one teraton (1000 gigatons) of cheese...

Wow, now someone needs to look up the individual type of cheeses and tell us how big a slice of swiss that's going to be!!

 

[DanMcS]

Spengler: Well, let's say this Twinkie represents the normal amount of psychokinetic energy in the New York area. Based on this morning's reading, it would be a Twinkie thirty-five feet long, weighing approximately six hundred pounds.

Zeddemore: That's a big Twinkie.

Teraton of cheese. Hah.

 

[Umbran]

Zeddemore: That's a big Twinkie.

A Twinkie has 150 dietary calories. It's got a volume of approximately 100 cubic centimeters, and is about 9.9cm long.

The Twinkie we'd need to eat would be... approaching half a light year long. That's a big Twinkie.

Or, if we want to keep the Twinkie with normal proportions... A Twinkie 34 kilometers long, 9 km wide, and 13 km high.

 

[Edena_of_Neith]

I asked because of this chart, which shows a warmup of this magnitude in the oceans of the world.

This chart shows anomalies from the average, ocean-wide, for each month of the year, from January 1880 though August of this year.
Anomalies are projected in degrees Fahrenheit, so - 0.36 (the first number on the chart) means 0.36 degrees Fahrenheit below the average.

It would appear that the oceans are running 3/4 of 1 degree Fahrenheit above the average, this year.
Back in the 1880, the oceans were running about about 1/4 of a degree Fahrenheit below the average.
Or, a change of 1 degree Fahrenheit, in the world's oceans.

The 5 year running averages also bear out this change of 1 degree Fahrenheit.

So, I know the rough magnitude of the increase in heat energy stored in the oceans.
6,500,000 hydrogen bombs worth, or thousands of years worth of the entire energy output of man, or 40 minutes of the entire output of the sun's energy on the Earth (assuming all of it was stored in the water of the oceans.)
Or, the caloric equivalent of a twinkie half a light year long.

1880 -0.36 -0.25 -0.10 -0.15 -0.40 -0.38 -0.30 -0.16 -0.32 -0.26 -0.19 -0.07
1881 -0.09 -0.10 0.01 0.01 0.03 -0.10 -0.06 -0.09 -0.35 -0.33 -0.48 -0.26
1882 -0.15 -0.16 -0.06 -0.17 -0.15 -0.24 -0.12 -0.27 -0.14 -0.35 -0.22 -0.43
1883 -0.17 -0.10 -0.06 -0.29 -0.22 -0.10 -0.17 -0.18 -0.26 -0.42 -0.24 -0.34
1884 -0.31 -0.19 -0.15 -0.19 -0.27 -0.24 -0.30 -0.25 -0.17 -0.28 -0.53 -0.39
1885 -0.27 -0.41 -0.30 -0.31 -0.27 -0.46 -0.26 -0.20 -0.14 -0.13 0.03 -0.01
1886 0.01 -0.17 -0.05 -0.04 0.03 -0.10 -0.12 -0.06 -0.17 -0.22 -0.28 -0.34
1887 -0.31 -0.48 -0.30 -0.42 -0.35 -0.33 -0.14 -0.27 -0.33 -0.31 -0.31 -0.30
1888 -0.47 -0.34 -0.15 -0.24 -0.13 -0.13 -0.26 -0.18 -0.10 0.15 0.12 0.06
1889 0.21 0.20 0.24 0.07 0.05 -0.02 -0.10 -0.16 -0.21 -0.13 -0.08 -0.25
1890 -0.31 -0.25 -0.23 -0.35 -0.35 -0.28 -0.35 -0.49 -0.60 -0.58 -0.58 -0.35
1891 -0.45 -0.26 -0.23 -0.19 -0.02 -0.22 -0.10 -0.09 -0.17 -0.12 -0.30 -0.21
1892 -0.22 -0.03 -0.17 -0.26 -0.35 -0.40 -0.59 -0.43 -0.32 -0.49 -0.55 -0.53
1893 -0.51 -0.34 -0.23 -0.51 -0.44 -0.26 -0.21 -0.27 -0.37 -0.26 -0.46 -0.32
1894 -0.42 -0.34 -0.41 -0.38 -0.44 -0.33 -0.33 -0.38 -0.42 -0.42 -0.44 -0.37
1895 -0.17 -0.23 -0.39 -0.33 -0.36 -0.28 -0.26 -0.16 -0.19 -0.17 -0.01 -0.25
1896 -0.13 -0.08 -0.05 -0.04 -0.08 0.03 -0.03 0.05 0.17 -0.04 0.26 0.17
1897 0.12 0.13 0.30 0.14 0.03 0.03 -0.03 -0.07 -0.10 -0.12 -0.33 -0.08
1898 -0.18 -0.25 -0.39 -0.42 -0.35 -0.15 -0.23 -0.25 -0.28 -0.39 -0.42 -0.35
1899 -0.29 -0.25 -0.24 -0.19 -0.15 -0.19 -0.14 0.00 -0.08 -0.06 -0.01 -0.07
1900 0.00 0.11 -0.06 0.05 -0.11 -0.04 -0.01 -0.07 -0.08 -0.06 -0.19 -0.07
1901 -0.02 -0.08 -0.17 -0.13 -0.13 -0.24 -0.24 -0.20 -0.42 -0.33 -0.62 -0.39
1902 -0.44 -0.32 -0.39 -0.37 -0.35 -0.37 -0.33 -0.38 -0.33 -0.39 -0.33 -0.25
1903 -0.27 -0.26 -0.30 -0.51 -0.45 -0.53 -0.50 -0.69 -0.77 -0.71 -0.67 -0.77
1904 -0.71 -0.57 -0.55 -0.56 -0.60 -0.49 -0.48 -0.54 -0.55 -0.48 -0.53 -0.37
1905 -0.45 -0.46 -0.42 -0.44 -0.26 -0.29 -0.24 -0.34 -0.42 -0.53 -0.48 -0.23
1906 -0.15 -0.14 -0.21 -0.20 -0.42 -0.24 -0.35 -0.33 -0.42 -0.53 -0.66 -0.53
1907 -0.45 -0.52 -0.42 -0.44 -0.45 -0.47 -0.50 -0.51 -0.55 -0.49 -0.51 -0.50
1908 -0.62 -0.48 -0.57 -0.56 -0.56 -0.49 -0.53 -0.58 -0.64 -0.62 -0.75 -0.73
1909 -0.58 -0.62 -0.66 -0.53 -0.56 -0.55 -0.62 -0.45 -0.39 -0.48 -0.66 -0.71
1910 -0.53 -0.53 -0.55 -0.55 -0.62 -0.56 -0.53 -0.56 -0.51 -0.60 -0.67 -0.71
1911 -0.54 -0.68 -0.62 -0.74 -0.67 -0.58 -0.53 -0.49 -0.50 -0.48 -0.42 -0.25
1912 -0.31 -0.25 -0.17 -0.17 -0.35 -0.29 -0.37 -0.54 -0.62 -0.58 -0.57 -0.50
1913 -0.53 -0.32 -0.48 -0.62 -0.54 -0.46 -0.51 -0.54 -0.53 -0.51 -0.51 -0.34
1914 -0.44 -0.34 -0.24 -0.26 -0.27 -0.28 -0.32 -0.20 -0.37 -0.01 -0.08 -0.21
1915 -0.18 -0.25 -0.10 -0.06 0.05 0.25 -0.01 0.05 -0.03 -0.17 -0.12 -0.52
1916 -0.42 -0.32 -0.24 -0.29 -0.42 -0.44 -0.39 -0.27 -0.24 -0.24 -0.66 -0.37
1917 -0.65 -0.57 -0.69 -0.49 -0.49 -0.33 -0.24 -0.22 -0.24 -0.37 -0.55 -0.57
1918 -0.20 -0.59 -0.37 -0.56 -0.35 -0.46 -0.42 -0.51 -0.53 -0.40 -0.13 -0.30
1919 -0.13 0.13 -0.15 0.07 -0.20 -0.24 -0.41 -0.42 -0.39 -0.33 -0.57 -0.50
1920 -0.31 -0.44 -0.05 -0.01 0.00 -0.04 -0.21 -0.06 -0.30 -0.06 -0.33 -0.32
1921 -0.44 -0.25 -0.32 -0.24 -0.31 -0.19 -0.15 -0.25 -0.15 -0.15 -0.39 -0.25
1922 -0.29 -0.14 -0.37 -0.51 -0.53 -0.38 -0.30 -0.34 -0.42 -0.42 -0.48 -0.43
1923 -0.33 -0.32 -0.30 -0.24 -0.26 -0.22 -0.42 -0.49 -0.57 -0.55 -0.12 -0.12
1924 -0.26 -0.10 -0.24 -0.19 -0.22 -0.24 -0.24 -0.25 -0.42 -0.48 -0.84 -0.70
1925 -0.62 -0.50 -0.35 -0.31 -0.29 -0.24 -0.17 -0.22 -0.30 -0.28 -0.17 -0.14
1926 -0.17 -0.05 0.06 0.05 0.05 -0.06 -0.08 0.05 -0.10 -0.01 -0.17 0.08
1927 -0.09 -0.07 -0.10 -0.06 -0.13 -0.15 -0.08 0.02 -0.10 -0.17 -0.22 -0.19
1928 -0.24 -0.23 -0.23 -0.19 -0.22 -0.15 -0.14 -0.16 -0.21 -0.30 -0.24 -0.35
1929 -0.31 -0.41 -0.42 -0.35 -0.42 -0.29 -0.30 -0.27 -0.33 -0.24 -0.17 -0.34
1930 -0.20 -0.17 -0.23 -0.11 -0.09 -0.15 -0.06 -0.06 0.03 0.12 0.21 0.11
1931 0.19 0.02 0.15 0.07 0.09 0.14 0.10 0.03 -0.03 -0.17 -0.17 -0.08
1932 -0.20 -0.08 -0.06 -0.13 -0.08 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 0.03 -0.04 -0.10 -0.14
1933 -0.02 0.01 -0.17 -0.10 -0.09 -0.06 -0.12 -0.11 -0.26 -0.12 -0.31 -0.39
1934 -0.33 -0.35 -0.32 -0.13 -0.15 0.10 0.03 0.07 0.08 0.01 -0.08 -0.12
1935 -0.11 -0.14 -0.26 -0.11 -0.15 -0.06 -0.08 -0.06 -0.08 0.01 -0.04 -0.08
1936 -0.15 -0.07 -0.06 -0.10 -0.04 0.01 0.12 0.09 0.03 0.03 -0.03 -0.03
1937 0.01 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.10 0.14 0.28 0.20 0.33 0.14 0.15 0.08
1938 0.12 0.10 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.23 0.24 0.20 0.15 0.21 0.19 -0.03
1939 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.12 0.05 0.21 0.22 0.20 0.22 0.01 0.05 -0.07
1940 0.01 -0.26 -0.21 0.05 0.14 -0.02 0.21 -0.06 0.01 0.06 -0.08 0.10
1941 0.34 0.19 0.12 0.30 0.05 0.07 0.01 0.11 0.12 0.64 0.89 0.89
1942 0.66 0.49 0.37 0.28 0.45 0.26 0.21 0.11 0.19 0.17 0.12 -0.01
1943 0.21 0.06 -0.01 0.03 0.27 0.21 0.21 0.30 0.22 0.42 0.53 0.47
1944 0.34 0.44 0.39 0.43 0.54 0.52 0.48 0.54 0.49 0.48 0.50 0.67
1945 0.55 0.62 0.35 0.41 0.32 0.43 0.33 0.34 0.44 0.51 0.62 0.60
1946 0.45 0.20 0.06 0.07 -0.13 -0.26 -0.10 -0.27 0.01 0.05 -0.15 -0.16
1947 -0.02 -0.14 -0.10 0.01 -0.13 -0.02 0.01 -0.09 -0.15 -0.22 -0.04 -0.08
1948 -0.20 -0.14 0.04 -0.11 0.01 0.05 -0.15 0.00 -0.17 -0.15 -0.10 -0.08
1949 0.10 0.10 -0.08 0.10 0.01 -0.02 -0.03 0.05 -0.01 -0.04 -0.04 0.01
1950 0.01 -0.10 -0.03 -0.04 0.00 -0.02 0.10 0.05 0.04 0.03 -0.08 -0.16
1951 -0.09 -0.16 -0.14 -0.02 0.05 0.26 0.21 0.23 0.21 0.32 0.19 0.22
1952 0.30 0.37 0.30 0.28 0.23 0.25 0.12 0.25 0.26 0.30 0.21 0.19
1953 0.19 0.31 0.19 0.34 0.37 0.25 0.22 0.16 0.26 0.21 0.28 0.24
1954 0.18 0.13 0.08 -0.06 -0.09 -0.06 -0.17 -0.09 -0.06 -0.08 -0.04 -0.12
1955 0.00 -0.05 -0.01 -0.13 -0.17 -0.11 -0.05 -0.04 -0.05 -0.17 -0.08 -0.16
1956 -0.02 -0.07 -0.03 -0.10 -0.11 -0.15 -0.12 -0.07 -0.12 0.01 0.05 0.13
1957 0.09 0.15 0.22 0.25 0.43 0.34 0.42 0.39 0.33 0.28 0.41 0.37
1958 0.41 0.42 0.31 0.37 0.32 0.30 0.26 0.30 0.35 0.32 0.30 0.47
1959 0.30 0.28 0.24 0.25 0.32 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.33 0.28 0.24 0.17
1960 0.18 0.15 0.17 0.14 0.27 0.16 0.24 0.25 0.30 0.23 0.28 0.31
1961 0.16 0.28 0.24 0.25 0.28 0.25 0.15 0.14 0.06 0.12 0.19 0.15
1962 0.12 0.13 0.10 0.16 0.16 0.10 0.21 0.18 0.22 0.24 0.17 0.11
1963 0.12 0.06 0.15 0.25 0.27 0.16 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.23 0.30 0.26
1964 0.14 0.10 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 0.03 -0.06 -0.22 -0.26 -0.17 -0.30 -0.32
1965 -0.17 -0.14 -0.17 -0.10 -0.08 -0.08 -0.10 -0.02 0.04 0.05 0.08 0.11
1966 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.17 0.03 0.12 0.17 0.11 0.17 0.14 0.23 0.19
1967 0.00 -0.01 0.04 0.07 0.16 0.12 0.10 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.10 -0.05
1968 -0.18 -0.16 -0.10 -0.06 0.00 0.16 0.13 0.14 0.22 0.23 0.32 0.40
1969 0.39 0.42 0.40 0.37 0.41 0.25 0.21 0.20 0.30 0.28 0.28 0.38
1970 0.36 0.26 0.24 0.23 0.16 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.06 0.06 0.17 -0.03
1971 -0.08 -0.19 -0.17 -0.15 -0.09 -0.15 -0.06 -0.09 -0.17 -0.10 -0.15 -0.21
1972 0.01 0.08 0.04 0.12 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.18 0.22 0.32 0.42 0.55
1973 0.41 0.33 0.28 0.23 0.27 0.19 0.24 0.20 0.13 0.12 0.10 0.01
1974 -0.08 -0.07 -0.08 -0.06 0.00 0.03 -0.01 0.09 0.06 0.06 0.05 -0.05
1975 -0.04 -0.03 -0.01 -0.06 -0.02 -0.10 -0.03 -0.02 -0.05 -0.15 -0.19 -0.30
1976 -0.31 -0.25 -0.06 -0.11 -0.17 -0.01 0.01 -0.06 -0.06 0.08 0.19 0.22
1977 0.30 0.24 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.16 0.19 0.14 0.30 0.24 0.24 0.19
1978 0.23 0.13 0.15 0.08 0.05 0.03 0.13 0.05 0.12 0.01 0.15 0.19
1979 0.23 0.15 0.17 0.19 0.14 0.25 0.15 0.18 0.31 0.33 0.46 0.49
1980 0.46 0.37 0.39 0.26 0.32 0.30 0.21 0.16 0.17 0.14 0.28 0.20
1981 0.18 0.06 0.17 0.21 0.16 0.19 0.15 0.11 0.22 0.23 0.21 0.29
1982 0.34 0.17 0.19 0.19 0.32 0.26 0.19 0.14 0.28 0.33 0.41 0.53
1983 0.63 0.65 0.60 0.50 0.45 0.48 0.35 0.36 0.42 0.35 0.39 0.42
1984 0.37 0.38 0.30 0.30 0.19 0.16 0.19 0.23 0.42 0.19 0.23 0.17
1985 0.21 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.18 0.07 0.10 0.09 0.17 0.23 0.28 0.29
1986 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.23 0.24 0.21 0.35 0.41 0.41 0.35
1987 0.36 0.35 0.39 0.43 0.48 0.43 0.55 0.63 0.78 0.71 0.86 0.78
1988 0.81 0.73 0.62 0.55 0.45 0.37 0.35 0.34 0.39 0.35 0.26 0.20
1989 0.30 0.24 0.21 0.25 0.30 0.25 0.40 0.39 0.49 0.42 0.53 0.46
1990 0.43 0.51 0.46 0.52 0.55 0.44 0.51 0.57 0.58 0.64 0.66 0.65
1991 0.57 0.51 0.48 0.57 0.61 0.55 0.60 0.54 0.53 0.41 0.39 0.44
1992 0.43 0.46 0.44 0.48 0.52 0.37 0.24 0.16 0.26 0.14 0.21 0.26
1993 0.36 0.33 0.31 0.35 0.39 0.28 0.21 0.23 0.33 0.33 0.46 0.44
1994 0.39 0.24 0.37 0.32 0.37 0.25 0.30 0.41 0.46 0.62 0.68 0.62
1995 0.57 0.58 0.58 0.48 0.45 0.50 0.62 0.52 0.51 0.50 0.57 0.49
1996 0.46 0.51 0.49 0.44 0.41 0.41 0.40 0.47 0.51 0.44 0.46 0.47
1997 0.43 0.47 0.55 0.55 0.66 0.71 0.76 0.79 0.96 0.96 1.05 1.12
1998 0.99 0.96 0.89 0.93 0.97 0.86 0.94 0.92 0.78 0.71 0.80 0.64
1999 0.54 0.49 0.55 0.46 0.37 0.37 0.33 0.38 0.46 0.44 0.46 0.42
2000 0.46 0.46 0.42 0.48 0.45 0.35 0.42 0.57 0.62 0.59 0.62 0.56
2001 0.59 0.56 0.71 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.67 0.74 0.84 0.82 0.86 0.82
2002 0.79 0.74 0.82 0.77 0.73 0.70 0.64 0.66 ? ? ? ?

 

[Prince Atom]

So the seas aren't warming very fast, yet the polar ice caps are melting. The atmosphere must then be the cause of the melt at the poles.

We need electric cars. The only problem is, the cheapest electricity comes from burning fossil fuels....

Dang, but I hate these situations.

TWK

 

[Umbran]

So the seas aren't warming very fast, yet the polar ice caps are melting. The atmosphere must then be the cause of the melt at the poles.

If only it were that simple.

Well, what counts as "very fast" is a matter for debate. In one sense, it is "only one degree". In another sense, it's a notable percentage of the range of temperatures that most critters find acceptable for living.

Next, let's not that we are talking about averages - over space and time. By looking at a global, year long average, you really cannot say the atmosphere is a fault. The melting of ice is a local phenomenon (it happens only at the poles), and it doesn't happen all year long. These numbers clearly don't give us the information necessary to come to a conclusion.

Lastly - you'd be really, really surprised at what kind of effects a mere 1 degree average change can have. The most recent ice age was characterized by (iirc) a 3 or 4 degree average change in global atmospheric temperature. That was enough to cover much of the northern hemisphere of the planet with ice. It stands to reason that a 1 degree change in the other direction should cause significant melting, no?

We need electric cars. The only problem is, the cheapest electricity comes from burning fossil fuels....

Last I saw, electric cars were perhaps not the best solution available. Aside from the usual limits of the technology, there's the simple matter that chemical storage batteries are nasty, chemically speaking. We may not dump as much heat into the atmosphere, but disposing of the batteries may be a severe long-term problem.

Hydrogen fuel-cell cars may be a far better solution. Check out the October Issue of Scientific American.

 

[Edena_of_Neith]

I am not going to take sides on the Greenhouse Effect issue - that issue, which had been strictly scientific, has become intensely political.
And political discussions, aren't allowed here on the ENBoards.
I will stay strictly on the scientific aspect of the issue.

I cannot say, of course, whether this particular dataset is accurate, more than any other person can.
There are other datasets - I have another at hand, which pretty much correlates with the dataset I gave above.
I have a third dataset, but it dates only from 1980 and I need datasets that start from the same time (1880.)

Anyways ...

According to current scientific thinking, a warming of 1 degree over all the oceans in a mere century is considered an astounding rate of warming.
Sorta the equivalent of a major geographic event, as it were (such as the quick plunge back into ice age conditions after Lake Agazzis broke through the ice dam and flowed down into the Atlantic, ten thousand years ago.)

The arctic icecap is thought to have thinned (during the summer) by 40 percent compared to what it was in the 1950s (data prior to that is not available.)
This represents, however, a more intense summer melt.
What is more interesting, perhaps, is that the subsurface water below the ice has warmed, mostly eliminating the cold (28 degree Fahrenheit) layer of water that insulated the icecap from the warmth further down. This phonomenon has occurred arctic-wide.

Scientific projections show the Northwest Passage will be usable for 2 months out of the year, starting in 10 years.
The Northeast Passage will be usable for 3 months out of the year, in 10 years.
Somewhere between 30 and 100 years from now, the Arctic Ocean will be free of ice in the summer.

Scientific projections show a warming of about 8 degrees Fahrenheit worldwide over the next 100 years.
Since nearly all of the heat stored on Earth is stored in the oceans, this means the oceans must warm that 8 degrees Fahrenheit.
Thus, the oceans are projected to warm at nearly the rate of 1 degree per decade, from now on.
This, is a colossally fast rate of warming, by geological time frames.

Assuming this is a natural event, it is akin to the world coming suddenly out of the ice age in terms of magnitude (and, the Earth did suddenly come out of the ice age, did suddenly warm up.)

The big thing about water is that, as it warms up, it warms up the air above it.
As air warms, the amount of moisture it can hold increases exponentially.
Thus, if a large area of the equatorial Atlantic goes from 84 degrees on average to 87 degrees, the result will be far greater humidity.
If the equatorial Atlantic goes from 84 degrees to 92 degrees on average ... I think I will let someone else describe just what will happen, as a result of such a warming ...

Heh. When I am elderly, I will be able to swim in the cool waters of Hudson Bay, during the summer.
I would not advise anyone to try that stunt today (except for the Polar Bear club people)

 

[Umbran]

Scientific projections show a warming of about 8 degrees Fahrenheit worldwide over the next 100 years.
Since nearly all of the heat stored on Earth is stored in the oceans, this means the oceans must warm that 8 degrees Fahrenheit.

That's not necessarily true.

When scientists talk about global warming, they usually (but not always) are talking about atmospheric warming. We do not yet thoroughly understand how heat moves from air to sea and back again. However, it's pretty clear that a rise in the temperature of one does not necessarily equate to an equal rise in the other.

 

[GreyShadow]

Interesting

I know I've learnt something reading this. I'm not quite sure what that is yet, but I do know it's something.

The bigger question is how long would it take the average immortal mouse to eat that teraton of cheese.