The 4e Distribution Model has Failed...

[Remathilis]

NOTICE: This is not a commentary on 4e or its rules, merely on how the rules were dolled out.

When 4e came out, a new system of content distribution was discussed. Previously, D&D was released in three books (or five box sets, but lets leave them out for a minute) and a metric ton of supplements. 4e promised a new system; core books every year, player supplements to grant new powers and such, DM books focused on a theme or monster, and a setting divided into DM and player's guides and a module. They had the first two years planned and it showed: PHB, DMG, and MM1 were followed by the Adventurer's Vault, Martial Power, and the Forgotten Realms Trilogy. A few DM guides focusing on undead and dragons rounded out the first releases. The second came and went on the same schedule: Another round of core books, more Power books for Divine, Arcane and Primals, another AV, Eberron Trilogy, DM guides to the Planes, and another Dragon Book.

However, something went off the rails in year three.

Sure, PHB3 came out, as did MM3, but DMG3 was nowhere to be seen. Psionic Power came, but soon the announcement that the further powersystems (ki, elemental, and shadow) were shelved for now. AV3 was renamed Mordenkainen's Magical Emporium with greater emphasis on story-elements to there magic items. Martial Power 2 came, which most thought would usher in a second round of the other Power books. Lastly, Dark Sun broke the Trilogy model by replacing the rather-crappy module with the much more useful Monster book.

Then, it stopped...

Essentials came out, hogging the last quarter of '10. It re-released the PHB (as two player books), the DMG (as a boxset) and the MM (ditto) along with a core rulebook. '11 has seen a further shift from the 08/09 model; there will be PHB/DMG/MM4, no AP/DP/PP/PsP 2s, no AV3 (as MME was canceled), the Shadow classes will appear in a supplement, not in a PHB with a Shadow Power augment book, no campaign setting (as Ravenloft appears geared toward the Gamma World model of self-contained game rather than D&D expansion.) DM supplements remain thin (the Shadowfell boxset is all that appears) and the next Monster book does not appear to be MM but another MV.

After two years, the 4e model of content distribution went off the tracks. We can speculate why. Supplement treadmill? Lack of sales? Lack of ideas? We don't know. It doesn't even appear WotC knows: Threats of the Nentir Vale will be a Essential-like boxset, while the Shadow books has moves from softcover "essential" form to traditional hardcover. WotC probably saw diminishing returns on PHB3 and MP2 (among others) and opted for a new content method; problem is they don't know what that is yet...

And that doesn't EVEN begin to address the content issues in DDi!

I don't know if/when the next edition of D&D will come, but I am sure of one thing; it will NOT feature a book titled "Players Handbook 3" in it...

 

[Nagol]

Anything with a '3' in the title is fighting against sequel fatigue at the best of times.

It does seem that WotC is having trouble competing for capital against other projects. They kept the projects capable of being funded and cut those that forecast a worse return.

The one oddity in this explanation is converting the softcover to hardback. Could softcover sales be that much worse to warrant the extra cost?

 

[DEFCON 1]

I think that at the time they developed this release schedule plan (before even the first PH, DMG and MM were released) they didn't realize just how big DDI was going to be for them. And as a consequence of its success... just how big of a bite it was going to take out of their book sales.

I know for me... I haven't bought PHIII or Psionic Power because I get all the information in them via DDI. I really didn't have to buy Primal Power (although I did) for exactly the same reason (and truth be told I've probably only opened that book maybe three or four times). My Adventurer's Vault? Read a few times just because the alchemy section was easier/faster to get the rules out that way... but I never look at it for magic items anymore.

So WotC has had to evolve their design plans because they realize they just don't get the same return on investment with their old paradigm anymore.

 

[kitsune9]

I think we're seeing WotC switching gears in mid-stride which always makes people a little nervous given that it's the 800 lb gorilla that is slamming the brakes.

 

[Nemesis Destiny]

I think we're seeing WotC switching gears in mid-stride which always makes people a little nervous given that it's the 800 lb gorilla that is slamming the brakes.

I see how this sort of thing makes people nervous, but to carry your analogy and run with it, are they gearing up, or down?

If they're gearing up, yeah maybe their engine is turning slower (less frequent content), but the vehicle (D&D) will be moving faster.

Gearing down could indicate a burst of rapid acceleration, but that would also indicate a busy release schedule. Granted we have no idea what will be announced at D&DXP, so it's anyone's guess.

Gearing down could also, as you imply with your 'hitting the brakes' comment, mean decelerating the brand (hopefully not to a stop). If this is the case, they could be doing it to adjust to changing markets (avoid an obstacle) or because they're running short on ideas. I find the latter very unlikely.

I can only carry on this car analogy so far.

 

[Alzrius]

I see how this sort of thing makes people nervous, but to carry your analogy and run with it, are they gearing up, or down?

If they're gearing up, yeah maybe their engine is turning slower (less frequent content), but the vehicle (D&D) will be moving faster.

Gearing down could indicate a burst of rapid acceleration, but that would also indicate a busy release schedule. Granted we have no idea what will be announced at D&DXP, so it's anyone's guess.

Gearing down could also, as you imply with your 'hitting the brakes' comment, mean decelerating the brand (hopefully not to a stop). If this is the case, they could be doing it to adjust to changing markets (avoid an obstacle) or because they're running short on ideas. I find the latter very unlikely.

I can only carry on this car analogy so far.

Well, it can be taken a bit further...

For example, if they're slamming on the jet-engine boost, then we'll all likely feel some disorientation from the massive acceleration.

If they've put the shields up, then we're going to have a hard time seeing what's going on inside.

If they've fired the missiles, then we're going to see a big, destructive explosion going on around them.

From these analogies, we can clearly deduce one thing: that WotC is driving the Batmobile.

 

[TerraDave]

[MENTION=7635]Remathilis[/MENTION]: Sure. Like I have said elsewere: "when everything is core, nothing is".

The story with essentials is that the marketing people actually pointed out this problem, and then R&D decided to fix some other issues along the way.

I think the question now is, has it been fixed? Essentials, more boxed stuff...these were supposed to fix it. But they are still dropping products. Maybe its fixed now.

 

[shadzar]

I think the failure was inevitable. You set forth to create a new copy of the game each year with the PHB cycle, but neglect to include the previous ones, as you only included the newest info, and update the rules. So to have the "errata" in place, you have to buy the newest books. People don't all want to buy the game again every year.

DDi should give you the errata right away, but you have to pay for it to be in place in the rules.

You can get the errata as a download to hunt through when you come to something, if you remember it while playing.

This has been the case with errata all along to fix mistakes of "we screwed up and meant to write something else." The problem lies in the buying the game every year then to get it.

Failing #1.

Settings, cute and novel approach, but you don't get many people to buy later settings, when they will not be supported is you get a settings once and only once, then it stops. People will start buying the newest settings to try, because they know it has a short lifecycle and then products end for it. Also someone cannot buy the setting from 2 years ago, if it isn't avilable to be bought.

That is failing #2.

DDI. Failing #3.

People don't want to rent the game, nor have to play it with a computer or always have to be around internet access to be able to play it.

I can pull out the books during a power outages, light some candles, and get new people to try the game. Playing pass the laptop around to try to play while it still has battery charge isnt any way to try to play.

On to Failing #4, board games.

They can be a boon to get people interested in the game, but D&D hasnt ever been a board game, even if it has recently required more board game type of play with focus on grids and maps and tiles. Board games are in no way shape or form D&D or roleplaying games, they are board games. Ravenloft might be a fun board game, but it is still a board game set in the Ravenloft setting as a background, and is not going to be a roleplay game.

HeroQuest is loosely a roleplaying game, but is still just a board game. One that very well introduces MANY roleplaying game elements that can get people into roleplaying, but it is still jsut a board game with the same limitations, unlike an RPG.

Your model needs something that everyone will want to buy to try the game, and those that get hooked will want to buy more things after that. Red Box, I wont get started on what I dislike about this, might have been a good idea, had it not came out years too late. It should have been there right when the PHB DMG and MM came out for those wanting to try it, and telling those that liked it if they want more levels, classes, races to get the PHB, DMG and MM, otherwise it was a complete mini-version of D&D.

So failing #5....

...was lack of introductory product and relying on existing customers/players to support the entire new product, that was nothing like had ever existed before which means existing customer/players were not really the target for it and there was nothing in the world to get new people to want to try it at an affordable and non-overwhelming manner.

D&D was all about having something small you could build on, while 4th edition started out big to build onto. AD&D was the product without much introductory level products for those that already played, and also created introductory product as an afterthought. That is what caused AD&D to not grow as good as D&D originally did, and what hampers growth potential for 4th and what caused the business model to fail because it lacked a place to start with a new game.

 

[ArcaneSpringboard]

@Remathilis: Sure. Like I have said elsewere: "when everything is core, nothing is".

The story with essentials is that the marketing people actually pointed out this problem, and then R&D decided to fix some other issues along the way.

I think the question now is, has it been fixed? Essentials, more boxed stuff...these were supposed to fix it. But they are still dropping products. Maybe its fixed now.

One thing that seems to have been lost in all this is that despite the fact that three of the books were cancelled, there are two that haven't been:

Heroes of Shadow
Players Handbook: Champions of the Heroic Tier.

Perhaps when Heroes of Shadow comes out, we'll have a better idea why not.

 

[UngainlyTitan]

My tuppence worth, I think that DDI did eat in to the crunch heavy books like the PHB X line and the powerbooks. I have pretty limited money these days for gaming so DDI plus books that inspire me as a DM is more my speed. So Monster manuals, campaign guides and location books (Plane above/below etc)

I also expect that from the comments relating to essentials the numbered player books caused brand confusion at the player entry level. Hense, Essentials.

There is also the possibity that the whole PHB 1,2 and 3 thing was an emergency response to the failure of Gleemax. Gleemax was such a steaming pile that we really do not know what it was really supposed to be going forward. It was a disaster going out the door. We can surmise with the aim of the digital efforts since and the fact that they are persevering inspite of all the setbacks that the untimate strategic goal is pretty compelling to the senior management of WoTC and perhaps to Hasbro.

I agree that we are looking at a change of direction but we don't have the roadmap and are guessing the route by watching the vehicle ramble about the countryside.