I see relying on the Starter Box for those not 100% into the game a bit of a problem actually. Levels 1-5 are not going to cut it for long term campaigns, meaning that at the very least the PHB + a lot of very, very good adventures is going to be needed to take the place of the full set of core books for those not wanting to devote themselves entirely to the new edition as their primary go to game. This is not impossible, and WotC adventures are gaining a better reputation than what they once had, but it's still a stretch to automatically assume it's going to happen. Even if an individual gamer might get a bit more from just the Starter Box, I don't see WotC wanting people to get too much out of the Starter Box because they want people to buy product, so I don't really expect a particularly robust box; enough for a couple of basic, low-level adventures beyond the one provided, and that's probably about it. Still worth the cost for most who buy it, but not a long term product that replaces the core books or DDI.
The biggest problem I see is that it prices out those groups that may enjoy playing it occasionally, but not enough to justify that high of a cost for the core books and/or a constant DDI subscription, which, long term, are going to be what is needed to run a campaign unless WotC drastically changes their business model. There will probably be temporary tools off of DDI to help a campaign along until the full set of books is out, but I wouldn't expect much more than that. Even a limited permanent SRD off of DDI would go a long way, but I'm not convinced that WotC willl do it because at least right now I don't see them doing anything that even hints of detracting from a DDI subscription. That means that most groups that might be willing to play it as a secondary campaign are basically forced to invest in it at a cost that they probably won't find to be worth it for a non-primary game; this is the market that WotC failed to catch with 4E, and unless their adventures are suddenly through the roof in quality, I don't see them catching it again this time, and that's going to hurt them as much this time as it did with 4E.
That being said, the problem isn't the price itself, but rather what people will get for the price. For those who make it their primary game, it's a fair price, and it's still possible, though unlikely, that the core 3 books will be high enough in both quality and content that even those who don't make it their primary game will find enough value to eventually plunk down that much money, though I would not expect that crowd to do so immediately or ever if the initial reviews are anything short of absolutely glowing. There will also certainly be a large spike at first as collectors and the merely curious buy at least the PHB; whether those people keep buying the books down the road is going to be the big test for WotC. It's not a lot of money relatively speaking, but it's still a pretty hefty chunk of change in a world with a lot of other options for people to spend it on, so perceived value to the individual buyer is going to be a large factor that WotC cannot afford to overlook. Catering only to those that are willing to fully invest in the system as their primary game didn't work for them with 4E, and it won't work for this edition either. With the core books priced that high, they are going to have to work hard to hook in the sometimes crowd, whether that be really, really high quality books, PDFs, adventures that allow people to bypass the MM and DMG for a good long time, a change in the structure of the DDI subscription, or something else.
