The future of RPGs

[Guilt Puppy]

Three years really ain't that long. I definitely think the "comic books to movies" analogy is good -- that is, pen-and-paper systems (and modules) will be translated more and more to point-and-click... It's been a clunky transition thus far, but there are two things working in its favor: Technology is catching up with the complexity of pen and paper mechanics (specifically, the ability to track large numbers of objects, allowing "full interactivity"), and likewise RPG systems are moving toward a more algorithmic apparatus (which is to say, requiring fewer ad hoc rules decisions, and a more elegant, open-ended approach to task resolution -- ie, d20 rolls for everything, rather than Tables for everything) which is more easily fit into a video game.

Possibly rumors of an update to D&D at that point, but I doubt it. I think it will have slowed down, and I think the Splat sensibility will have died down significantly -- I expect to see some really, really good modules written over the course of the next three years.

I think d20 will still be the dominant system, and vanilla D&D will still be the flagship, but I think the satellite d20s will be much closer contenders. Alternative systems will be hurt by this, in terms of market share (I'm guessing), but I think their player base will still be larger than it is now, so no complaining

Meanwhile, the new OCD fad will be collectible, I don't know, robots or something... We went from 2d cards, to 3d minis, now we need need that fourth dimension of motion, you know? After that, it will require major advances in string theory before a new fad is introduced.

 

[s/LaSH]

What's MTG?

Magic: the Gathering. Little collectable card game, got some company called Wizards Of The Coast a chunk of money, enabling them to rescue D&D from economic death. Still going strong, last I heard. It's not exactly an RPG, but it hits most of the same geek buttons.

Now, things I'd predict for the future:

- MMORPGs improve incrementally, until someone comes up with something revolutionary that people don't deride as a grieferhavenlevelgrindingtoomuchortoolittleinteractionfest. Of all things, I'm considering algorithms from The Sims or Lionhead, who seem to be making better artificial societies than real people online.

- A trend of easy-to-learn, quick-to-play systems springs up. (I'm working on something as we speak with a scaling-complexity resolution system - but enough about my hopes and dreams, it's somewhere between easy and hard and that's all that matters.)

- Second generation d20 market culture. Difficult concept, but a resurgent market with slightly different assumptions honed by the previous few years could be strangely cool.

 

[BiggusGeekus]

Uh, which is what?

(Not trying to be snarky...I'm honestly not sure what comic books are to movies...)

No problem.

A lot of movie guys like looking at comic books because they are pre-storyboarded. Storyboarding is an early step in movie-making (albiet a small one). So they can test out their storyboard on an audience, which is to say comic book guys. "From Hell", "Ghost World", "The Road to Perdition", and "The Leage of Extrodinary Gentlemen" were all comics that gathered an audience and from that the attention of a movie producer. Obviously, some of these movies were bombs, but that isn't the real issue. The important thing is that the movie producer got to see a test run of the story before any real money was spent.

The difference in the movie world is a no-brainer. The cost of a comic run is absolutely trivial compared to the cost of a movie. RPGs are slightly more expensive to produce and video games cost a lot less to make, so the difference isn't as extreme. However, if a gaming company wants to see how their rules will fly, they can compare to some RPGs on the market and see the pros and cons without spending much money.

There are still some problems with that. For instance, D&D/d20 makes for crummy MMORPG or even CRPG games because of the experience system alone. That's easy enough to modify, but right away you can spot some problems. Math is much easier for a computer to perform, adjudication of divinations is much harder, and 20 levels really isn't enough for the computer gaming culture.

Personally, if WotC were to hand me the keys to the company, I'd sit down with JE Sawyer or a couple of other RPG enthusiasts in the computer gaming world and release a variant D&D ruleset that would be shipped out on all D&D games as a PDF. But that's just me.

 

[Scribble]

Three years really ain't that long.

Yeah, I did that on purpose, because really, the next game to shake up the market could come out tomorrow for all we know, and you can sort of look at trends right now to get answers to the other questions...

Yes, and it came out last year: the D&D Miniatures game.

Hrmm... I don't know if I agree with this one. I mean if you think about Magic the Gathering, that had a HUUUGE impact on the industry. And while I know it's not actually an RPG (as someone pointed out) it still shook up the rpg market. I remember when it came out it was MTG everywhere you went. People were actually getting scared that it would drive the RPG industry under because soooo many people were switching to Magic. How ironic that the game people thought would kill the industry helped create a resurgance of the market with the d20 system. Another concept that changed the industry a lot. Suddenly D&D was open to alll sorts of things.

The D&D minis game, while inovative, really hasn't had as big of an impact. And if you think about it, Mageknight was doing the plastic pre painted mini thingie long before the D&D minis game. I don't think I'd even consider mage knight to be a groundbreaker either though, because it's sort of a variation of what Magic started. The merging of collectible, random, and game.

 

[MerricB]

Although the effects of the D&D Miniatures game hasn't been immediate, I think they've significantly changed the way the Wizards designers approach D&D.

Cheers!

 

[Saqhara]

Having never read the rules for or played D&D Miniatures I can't really comment on its impact but I can say that I don't like the idea of pre-painted minis. Painting them like my characters and NPCs has always been part of the fun of the whole game for me.

As to what changes I see for the future I would say that there will probably be more crossover from P&P to PC (computers, not characters ) as well as more web based content for supplements and rules systems. When your toaster can show you your email you know that everything else isn't too far behind....

 

[johnsemlak]

Although the effects of the D&D Miniatures game hasn't been immediate, I think they've significantly changed the way the Wizards designers approach D&D.

Cheers!

Explain please

 

[Varianor Abroad]

D&D will still be really popular, be it via 3.5 or via Miniatures rules. But something will come along that will grab the market segment that responds to "cool" games. No idea what it will be.

 

[Steel_Wind]

I think MerricB is absolutely right. The "next big thing" in the three year horizon is pre-painted miniatures and those effects are just starting to be felt.

It's been 10 months since they were first released. Quality has increased greatly since the first release. They've sold 8 million of these already. 8 *million* At their retail prices, that's the equivalent of 200,000 $40 hardcovers in less than one year. And they are just getting **started**

Those minis are not available in mainstream toy stores...yet. WotC has its CCGs in Toys R Us. Make no mistake - getting their minis in a mass market dept store is their end and aim.

Compared to the sales for D&D minis, the sales of all non-wotc gaming products - put together - don't touch the economic impact of these minis.

Quality has already increased massively over the past 10 months and the new Star Wars minis are extremely impressive. And I expect they will get better as time goes on.

MerricB is right. The "next big thing" in pre-painted collectable miniatures.

 

[Scribble]

I'm still putting the minis in the same area as Magic The Gathering. Inovative yes, but it's still a collectible random game. Just replace cards with minis. (please don't take this as a knock on the D&D minis btw. I think the system is great and love the prepainted minis.)

What I'm talking about is something that dramatically changes the way people view the industry. Something that creates an entirely new "meta" concept if you will.

MTG created a whole new concept. The collectible random game.

The d20 system created a whole new concept. The open game concept. Suddenly anyone could be a publisher for an already monstrously successfull system...

It's fine if you want to say the minis fall into the preexisting game with new products, or even hot new game that everyone wants to play.

But I'm personally not going to place it in the groundbreaking category. But then again that's just my opinion.