The real future of D&D

[hailstop]

A very interesting blog post:

The Inevitable Future of Tabletop Gaming | SquareMans

 

[Cadfan]

Meh. I agree that "selling content" rather than "selling books" is the way that IP sales are going, but that's been evident for some time (see DDI, iTunes, etc). And giving away rules for free because you make more money on supplementary material is not an uncommon strategy in the gaming world (many miniature games use it, etc).

But the augmented reality junk? I can't say it will NEVER happen. But the technological hurdles are enormous. Not the technological hurdles of making augmented reality as he describes it in general, but rather the technological hurdles of making an RPG that works well with it. There are hurdles in terms of purchasing cost, in terms of interface, in terms of scope of game, in terms of development cost (imagine trying to do graphics for everything in D&D, ever), in terms of the compromises you'd have to make to bring those earlier points into a scope you could achieve, and so on. I feel pretty confident that we're far, far away from augmented reality gaming as anything other than really really fancy MMORPGs. Which is cool and all, but I think most of us recognize that, while MMORPGs and RPGs overlap, they are not coterminous.

Once upon a time, if you were a scifi/fantasy/gaming nerd, D&D was about your only choice. So in that time period D&D was very strong. Now there are lots of choices, not only of tabletop RPGs, but of entirely new areas of hobby gaming: the board game revolution has occurred, computerized gaming has arisen (and includes several of its own subgenres), CCGs have been invented, and so on. So naturally D&D has become less prominent. Of course it has, its no longer a monopoly. But that doesn't mean that tabletop gaming will inevitably die as the new kids on the block take its customers. If you think that tabletop rpgs have some characteristics that, at least as of yet, have not been well mimicked by other gaming options, then that just means that tabletop rpgs will reach their equilibrium in the market.

I think that there are certain advantages to a tabletop RPG that are not well emulated by other genres, particularly gaming with significant computer aids. Specifically, tabletop RPGs allow you to diverge beyond what someone else thought up when they wrote the game, and they allow you to easily create your own content with almost no preset boundaries. These are not trivial technological hurdles for a game that operates through a graphics viewer.

That being said, bring on the RPGs with computer supplemented combat resolution. There will be some early adopter issues there with regards to cost, but it could be quite cool.

 

[malraux]

First, anyone who cites Who Moved My Cheese as anything other than a faux-motivational book for business people who want to pretend that they are too busy being businessy to read real books loses several credibility points, imo.

Next, for all the talk of micro-payments, he's missed the other big change in customer-company relations: subscriptions. Micro-payments are great for some things, subscriptions are great for others. I really don't know that micro-payments make more sense than a subscription model for a game like DnD. WoW tends to work on the subscription model, DDi obviously works on the subscription model. I can't say for sure that the future of TTG will be subscriptions but I'd certainly prefer the author address why he doesn't think it is.

I'm not sure I buy the augmented reality deal either. The idea of looking through an iphone screen to see the game board seems.... odd. 3d visual worlds are awesome. But they take forever to build and the mouse and keyboard interfaces just aren't adequate to manipulate them with anything like the ease with which we manipulate physical things.

 

[malraux]

Second, do whatever it takes to get people playing your game. The old model was Selling More Books = Making More Money. That’s gone. Already gone. The future is more people playing = making more money. This is scary for some people, but it’s working. It’s the “Our business model is no business model” model and the fact is, scary as it is to people used to traditional planning and cashflow, it’s the future. KCRW instincted their way to success by just giving their content away. At a time when no one knew how to make the internet make money for them, they just went with their instincts. Give it away. You can listen to all their shows online. So far everyone who’s worried about the money first, has lost. KCRW got people listening first and worried about the money second. One of the most influential stations in the country, and they’re more successful now because people listen online all over the world–rather than just Ad Execs in L.A. who put the songs they hear on Morning Becomes Eclectic into their commercials–and become ’subscribers,’ which is to say they DONATE money for content they were getting free anyway. Now, the future of the hobby isn’t donations, I’m not saying that, I’m just saying you can start with “get everyone onboard” and worry about monetizing later.

I also think this is insane. I won't deny that occasionally some business models work on the not making money plan. A lot more work on the actually making money plan though. Especially when you are in a content production role instead of a content dispersal role. Yes youtube and twitter are very successful even though they don't make money. But for them to survive, they need a route to making money or to latch onto a company that is willing to take the losses. If you don't have a plan for making money, you aren't guaranteed that you'll eventual make money (not that having a plan guarantees money, but it helps).

That whole paragraph is like the guy missed the 90s tech bubble or time warped from just before it burst.

 

[Mark]

I like the Circus Maximus header image.

 

[WayneLigon]

That whole paragraph is like the guy missed the 90s tech bubble or time warped from just before it burst.

Same here. His entire screed reminds me of how people used to talk about 'counting eyeballs' and how people would pay a penny every time they'd load a page and how the cash would roll in. All those people are flipping burgers now, or gone into furniture sales.

 

[Mark]

I can see how this might be a possible future technology of tabletop miniatures wargames but RPGs are a different animal, though the author of the article doesn't seem to quite get that (or believe it, anyway).

 

[Rechan]

Once upon a time, if you were a scifi/fantasy/gaming nerd, D&D was about your only choice. So in that time period D&D was very strong. Now there are lots of choices, not only of tabletop RPGs, but of entirely new areas of hobby gaming: the board game revolution has occurred, computerized gaming has arisen (and includes several of its own subgenres), CCGs have been invented, and so on. So naturally D&D has become less prominent. Of course it has, its no longer a monopoly. But that doesn't mean that tabletop gaming will inevitably die as the new kids on the block take its customers. If you think that tabletop rpgs have some characteristics that, at least as of yet, have not been well mimicked by other gaming options, then that just means that tabletop rpgs will reach their equilibrium in the market.

To make a different point, let's compare RPGs to other hobbies:

Renfaires
SCA/certain kinds of LARPing (dressing up and swinging swords at dudes)
Civil War/Revolutionary War Reinactments

These are certainly different (all involve some level of costuming, certainly), but you know what? They're still going. They're never going to peak, never going to get huge, but they continue to plod along. Nothing can replace the community/togetherness/wackiness of the event.

Same with tabletop RPGs. Even using a virtual tabletop, the RPG itself continues. They're just going to become a little more niche than they are now, just like the SCA/Civil War Reinactments.

 

[Ariosto]

There is a reason that computerized games have not eliminated face-to-face, human-moderated role-playing games:

They meet different needs.

Despite the Internet, men and women still meet physically to do what we have ever done.

It is only by cutting down the RPG to fit the limited capabilities of silicon chips and software that the replacement would be possible any time soon. Maybe some designers and marketers are going that way; maybe they have even made some headway in getting people to forget what it's all about.

The future? Sure, for most it may be "wonder if it's" bread and pasteurized process cheese product and high fructose corn syrup. It may be television and top 40 pop radio. Is this a change? Have role-playing games ever been as big a business as video games?

 

[Mark]

Have role-playing games ever been as big a business as video games?

The Seventies?