I'm somewhat disappointed - not despondent, but getting there - about the current state of our beloved hobby. It seems to me that we're watching the customer base of D&D fracture into so many smaller parts. This belief stems from the numerous D&D derivatives and editions that are being played - 1E, 2E, 3E, 3.5E, 3.75E, True20, Microlite d20, D6, Conan, Black Company, Iron Heroes, Arcana Unearthed, etc. More distressing, of course, is the acrimony that seems to be accompanying the splintering.
On the surface, a list of similar but diversified products may appear appealing to the end consumer. It gives everyone options.
Likewise, on the surface, it shouldn't matter to me what the gaming group down the street is playing. Let them play whatever they enjoy. If that's a move to 4E, great! If that's sticking with 3.0E, great!
But I think both of those thoughts are myopic. I don't think our industry has the clout to withstand so many derivatives. As someone posted in another thread, these games - regardless of the edition/type - are games you play with other people. There needs to be some shared understandings, some norms, between us gamers. Further, the end consumer gains his power via numbers - companies that produce the material we use to game listen to us because we (supposedly) vote with our dollars. Each time our base breaks into a splinter group, we lessen our ability to propel the game forward in a manner that pleases the majority.
There will always be splinter groups. I understand it. I get it. There are people that play oD&D and 1E like their lives depend on it. I think that's fascinating and extremely cool. But the types of divisions we're discussing now seem to be much more far-reaching than iconoclast groups that stick with an older edition irrespective of the marketplace.
I vividly remember the unfortunate era of D&D when everything was collapsing. I skipped 2E all together, as did many, many others. WotC saved our game. 3E saved our game. We were very close to having our hobby become a punchline for a 1980s Trival Pursuit game. I don't want to go back into such a dark age in the hopes we get another miracle.
So, those are the reasons I'm worried and the reasons why I feel such worries are pertinent to everyone who picks up a d20. I wish I could convey my sentiments better but I'm not finding it too easy to do so.
I do, however, have some things that keep me hopeful.
First, I think many of the splintered groups will eventually return home (in this case - return to 4E), much as has occurred in the past whenever we've entered the Time of Troubles.
Second, I think the acrimony and declarations for different systems is a natural response to change - especially when that change is not properly marketed, explained, and demonstrated prior to its implementation.
Third, I believe enough of the core base will move to 4E - weakened through defections certainly - that, when coupled with new players, will ensure our hobby maintains its forward progress. Getting new players is extremely important to us - or it should be. We're a dying breed. If 4E had a mentality to "get new players, even at the risk of alienating some long time fans" then...that's unfortunate, but - if successful - it's also justified.
Fourth, I think we - meaning those of us that come to this messageboard and others like it - are a very, very small fraction of the base. I have two different groups of eight players, and not one of them - not one - visits EN World. (Their loss, I know.) They only know about it because of me. Nor do they know about Green Ronin, Necromancer, Paizo, etc. Hell, I bet some think D&D is still under TSR. And these aren't stupid people; they have wives and kids and jobs, and they're only concerned with the game itself and having fun. In many ways, I envy them.
Fifth, I think the most vocal of us who declare our undying loyalty to one game system or one edition are a fraction of the above fraction. I think our best and brightest are those lurkers who casually review the boards, but refrain from engaging in the often antagonistic and unwinnable verbal sparring that occurs. More power to them.
I guess what I'm saying is I want this all to pass. I want the new edition to succeed. We should all want this new edition to succeed. I know that's hard to say if you dislike what you've seen of 4E, but - for the hobby as a whole - it must be a success, for all those reasons I outlined above.
W.P.