Theories/Opinions on WotC's Plan

[mhensley]

I have an easier time believing this is just orders from on-high to maximize revenue, though. MtG alone guarantees WotC a safe place at Hasbro, I'd think.

Does anyone know how well Magic is doing these days? I haven't played in years and don't know anyone who does anymore. I thought all the kids were playing yugioh or some other nonsense these days.

 

[Desdichado]

I have an easier time believing this is just orders from on-high to maximize revenue, though. MtG alone guarantees WotC a safe place at Hasbro, I'd think.

Unless they're looking to be bought, which is just insane.

Well, yeah--Hasbro is also notorious for camping on licenses for years and years until they can find a way to get some more money out of them. Look at the treatment of GI Joe, for example.

But to clarify; my wild speculation of the day wasn't that WotC was going up for sale, just D&D specifically.

 

[ashockney]

If we can accept these as the basic facts, I make the following predictions:

1) We will soon see free content at wizards.com decrease to nearly none.

2) In fact, free content may soon only be previews of the digital initiative materials.

3) In addition to subscription, WotC may have some individual pdfs of digital initiative game content available, but only at a very high price relative to how much one would get from just subscribing for, say, a year at a time-- or perhaps no set time, with one only being able to cancel by going through process as difficult as, say, getting rid of AOL.

4) Wizards will soon (if they don't already) see third-party publishers as real competitors taking money out of their pockets, and will market and publish accordingly.

5) While I do not think 4th Edition is imminent-- I believe it will appear summer 2010, maintaining a (rough) 10 year pattern between Editions-- nor am I one of these "sky-is-falling/WotC-is-evil" types, I guarantee you "4E" will not be OGL in any form.

6) 4th Edition, while not OGL, will be just different enough from 3rd to make non-WotC products hard to convert to 4E. This will be designed to eliminate third party competition-- and will likely succeed to a great extent.

7) Whatever version of the RPGA exists for 4th Edition will be subscriber only.

I could speculate a bit more, but the above seems like the stuff people I talk to sort of agree on. So I expect a lot of people to respond with "Well, duh."

But what I want to see is who disagrees or has a different slant.

And whatever the consensus, the larger reason I am compiling these theories is to see who thinks WotC's future plans are a good thing, who thinks they are bad, and how people around here think the RPG community will respond; further, to see how people wish the community would respond.

Because, one way or another, WotC is trying to change the way you and I experience role-playing games-- the question is, for the better or for the worse?

Assuming the basic facts you've listed, I would predict:
MORE free online content - marketing costs reduced, expenses cut, enhance gameplay for players with new tools, enhance gameplay with better DM'ing tools

PDF's won't be the primary tool for distribution. For this to work, they need people to subscribe. They need to offer content that requires you to be "hooked into" the game system. The issue here will be exclusive content and exclusive access.

Third party publishers will continue to build the overall tabletop rpg market by capitalizing on popular sword and sorcery brands, and will not provide a significant threat to the core game.
The OGL will not change significantly. The d20 license will be altered, and reduced, to provide WOTC with the abililty to provide exclusive content.

4th edition will be announced at Winter Fantasy in 2008, and released at Gen Con.

RPGA will absolutely be part of the exclusive/portable content, which will be part of the subscription service. If they nail it, this content will also be portable into some kind of online MMORPG system.

These changes are a good thing, they will make the game play experience better.

If not, things will get very interesting.

 

[buzz]

But to clarify; my wild speculation of the day wasn't that WotC was going up for sale, just D&D specifically.

That I'd find doubtful.

 

[Desdichado]

Just out of curiousity--for GreatLemur and Raven Crowking--I'm a fan of the OGL too, but why would you have no interest in a non-OGL D&D? In your home games, it hardly matters where alternate material comes from anyway.

 

[Desdichado]

That I'd find doubtful.

Why? It shouldn't be too hard to find a buyer for it, it's arguably "tapped out" for the time being in terms of what Hasbro can do significantly with the brand to generate big revenue. The movies have been tried, and they flopped. The MMORG has been tried and it flopped.

I can certainly see some guy at Hasbro thinking that "hey, someone else can have a go at this D&D business; we haven't been able to make it make any big money."

 

[Raven Crowking]

Just out of curiousity--for GreatLemur and Raven Crowking--I'm a fan of the OGL too, but why would you have no interest in a non-OGL D&D? In your home games, it hardly matters where alternate material comes from anyway.

Because I do think it matters where alternate material comes from. My home campaign uses materials from many 3rd-party sources that wouldn't be available if there was no OGL. Things like From Stone to Steel and The Complete Guide to the Fey. I like a grittier game with a more folkloric feel that what WotC seems interested in producing. Therefore, cutting the OGL is removing a major source of inspiration for me. For my money, the Tome of Horrors books are more useful than the later WotC monster books. Removing the OGL would remove these sorts of products, too. Frost and Fur is, IMHO, a better product than Frostburn.

If I buy into a new edition, I want to be able to buy adventures as well. I might not run them, but I enjoy gleaning ideas from them. I recently purchased a new WotC module, and I absolutely hate the format. The module breaks the encounters into areas and tactical encounters, and essentially wants you to flip the pages back & forth to use the sections as needed. Horrible. They assume the use of a map for every combat encounter.....and the tactical parts read like you're playing DDM instead of D&D. Blech. Nice map, though.

So, without the OGL, who do I go to for adventures? Right now, my main choices are Dungeon, Necromancer Games, and Goodman Games. Dungeon will soon be gone, and without the OGL, neither Necromancer or Goodman are likely to support a new edition.

When 3.X came out, WotC got my money mainly through the Core Books and the other early releases. When 3.5 came out, I saw no incentive whatsoever to switch over; you can run 3.5 adventures perfectly well using the 3.0 ruleset. I don't like the weapon size rules (Monte Cook's AE does it better), the minis-centric combat system, or the changes to cover & concealment from 3.0. Now, I'm playing a hybrid, using the rules from each edition that I like, plus house rules (including many 3rd-party sourcebook rules). I like minis, and WotC certainly got some cash off me there, but I don't care to have them mandated by the rules....and certainly not by adventure modules!

WotC seems utterly uninterested in producing the type of content that I enjoy, and a non-OGL game means that no one will produce that content. So, what is my incentive to switch to 4e?

Finally, in a free market economy, the only way that a consumer can show his displeasure is by not buying. I think that the OGL is the best thing that happened to D&D since Gygax took paper to pen. I think it is the polar opposite to the policies that T$R took on to counter personal D&D websites back in the day. I think that, while the brand name belongs to WotC, the game itself is larger than that, and is best when the creative efforts of many, many people hear voice....even that initial glut of d20 products contained gems. Even some of the stinkers had a few really good ideas in them.

The essence of what makes D&D worth playing is that we view it as our collective sandbox. That disappears without the OGL.

Therefore, if 4e is non-OGL, I will not buy it.

 

[Set]

The OGL has brought me the two settings / rule-sets I find most compelling for d20 fantasy gaming. White Wolf's Scarred Lands setting, and Monte Cook's Arcana Unearthed.

It also led to Mutants & Masterminds, a d20 superhero game that completely rocks.

While I make heavy use of WotC content, like the Complete series or the environment books (Stormwrack, Sandstorm, etc), I also make equal use of Malhavoc, Green Ronin and Sword & Sorcery books.

Some of my favorite mechanisms from recent WotC products are directly inspired from 3rd party works, such as Sorcerer 'Heritage feats' and Reserve feats (both originally from White Wolf products, refined and made stronger than the original WW versions). I'd hate to see WotC shoot themselves in the foot by denying themselves the chance to take advantage of 3rd party publishers as a 'brainstorming laboratory' of sorts, as they are doing now.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

Totally anecdotal, but I asked my FLGS owner about it yesterday when we were talking about the future of gaming in general, and he said that he orders 1 -- count em, 1 -- copy of each nWoD book at a time. That's as opposed to the 6 Exalted copies of a new Exalted 2e book (down 50% from 1e, btw) and the 12-24(!!!!) he used to order of WoD books.

Go by the book store in the mall. White Wolf has a huge portion of every Borders and Barnes & Noble roleplaying section I've ever seen, each of which sees more customers in a month than most game stores do in a year.

WWGS ain't going anywhere.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

This thread is full of people trying to turn their own gaming preferences into industry trends.