Correct; because all of those examples of fancy things my character might do (pick a lock, etc.) come with a built-in chance of failure.
Character (and player) memory isn't perfect either.
So why not have the coupon have a
chance of success?
You're just giving it a 100% chance of failure, as it were.
For my money, someone who has a PC with say, 18 INT and 16 WIS and the Survival skill shouldn't be on a level playing field with someone with INT 8 and WIS 8 (I am thinking of real characters here lol) who has no such proficiency.
But by relying 100% on the human, real-world player's ability to plan, and 0% on the character, you're putting them as exactly equal.
To me that's very similar to if you had a STR 18 character and a STR 8 character, giving them an equal chance to kick down a door, because IRL both their players are equally bad at kicking down doors.
I mean, just off the top of my head, maybe you should get on "equipment token" for having Survival, and then another for each +1 INT or WIS or something. And to cash the token, you make a Survival check (I'm assuming for Survival gear in this case). If you fail, not only did you forget, but so did your PC. Fair enough. If you succeed, sure, you're a scatterbrain, but your PC isn't, good thing too!
In the scenario I noted, the Survival-oriented PC would have, say, 5 tokens (maybe too many, I dunno), and the non-survival one would have 0 (well -1 one but it seems mean to take away his equipment just because his PC is dumb lol).