What can Google Insight tell us about RPGs?

[malkav666]

It would be interesting to look at this data with the Y axis values in place. I have to assume that those values are not absolute and rather different for each group of searches.

love,

malkav

 

[Jürgen Hubert]

You have to be very careful when you attribute causes to trends. Remember that your cause is speculation, not necessarily truth.

What you know is that the number of searches dropped. That the gaming population dropped is one possible explanation, but not the only one.

For example: Consider that most of us who are well-entrenched in the online gaming community don't do Google searches on our games often. We tend to have our sources bookmarked! Searching is for those who don't yet have sources they like.

How is this any different from 2004, though?

Maybe you are right and the number of gamers has not declined significantly since then because more of them are using bookmarks instead of searches (though personally, I doubt it). But to my mind, this would imply that there are fewer new gamers, who after all would use searches to find the good sites since their bookmark lists aren't so long yet. This still sounds like a decline to me.

Google has processed a very large number of data points, which ensures a fairly high statistical significance. It worked when they are tracking the outbreaks of diseases, after all...

 

[kitsune9]

I just found out about Google Insight, which tracks the number of searches for specific terms over time. This might help us track the general state of various RPG lines.

Here are various trends I found for the period on display (starting with 2004):

Call of Cthulhu: About the same, with the exception of a peak in April 2006 (coinciding with the "Dark Corners of the Earth" computer game). The search term is also very popular in Russia, for some reason.
D&D: Down by half
Exalted: Up by 25%
GURPS: Down to a third
RIFTS: Down by half
Savage Worlds: Up by 50%
Shadowrun: Down by half
World of Darkness: Slightly lower than it started, but now about constant

So it does seem that the gaming industry and community is no longer as large as it used to be. But what else can be learned from this tool?

This tool also allows comparisons by country, as well as some other nifty options. So make your own armchair analysis of gaming trends!

That's pretty cool. I did some of the same stuff you did with this. It's interesting to see trends.

 

[ggroy]

It would be interesting to look at this data with the Y axis values in place. I have to assume that those values are not absolute and rather different for each group of searches.

Maybe they can make the Y axis into a logarithmic scale, as an option.

For graphs which have huge spikes in them, a log scale on the Y axis would be a lot easier to look at. A recent example of this, would be a Google Insights search for "Michael Jackson".

 

[RandomCitizenX]

How is this any different from 2004, though?

Maybe you are right and the number of gamers has not declined significantly since then because more of them are using bookmarks instead of searches (though personally, I doubt it). But to my mind, this would imply that there are fewer new gamers, who after all would use searches to find the good sites since their bookmark lists aren't so long yet. This still sounds like a decline to me.

Google has processed a very large number of data points, which ensures a fairly high statistical significance. It worked when they are tracking the outbreaks of diseases, after all...

I'm pretty sure that the bit about a decline in new gamers was exactly what Umbran was talking about in the very last point of his post.

 

[xechnao]

So it does seem that the gaming industry and community is no longer as large as it used to be.

Or that the expectations of the internet destinations relative to people's curiosities has been stabilizing in the online population. Moreover, people day by the day get more accustomed to the possibilities of the era of information and general interest or curiosity gows down. The internet has had a boom and now we are in the cool down phase. I believe the entertainment market is changing. No more fads, no more wild or crazy money. Things will fall and stabilize to a level representative to their quality. Marketing will not have the power it used to have. Where the future of the market stands? Clearly not on targeting the individual consumer but rather on more social or group movements or trends that lie on the pgysical and real world. This is why Paizo for example seems to have given a lot of effort to organize Paizocon. And D&D's future heavily depends on its expansion or stabilization in the realm of local social activities and events. This certainly takes a lot of more effort than making a web site but what did you expect? Internet to generate enough money by itself so to feed the industries? Not gonna happen, at least IMO.

Or perhaps I am totally wrong. This may just be a problem of lack of growth or change of internet sites, internet events and what have you.

 

[Bumbles]

I bet everybody is just using Bing! instead.

 

[ThirdWizard]

How is this any different from 2004, though?

In 2004, you got your D&D goodness from all over, thanks to the OGL! I can certainly see a search for D&D in 2004 being much more productive than a search today. Back then, I would occasionally scour the net for a new OGL website, product, or whatever. There was tons out there for free that I could and did use in my 3e games. And, I wasn't even one of the people who was heavily into d20 products.

I hate to say it, but OGL has been in somewhat of a decline since 2004. I know people might jump on me for saying it, but what I mean is that there were less products and less 3rd party developers publishing and releasing rules as time went on. 2004 marked the release of 3.5, I believe, which is when this trend began. Also, many established parties went on to create their own IPs, which a search for D&D would not turn up. Simply put, searching for D&D on Google was less and less productive as time went on.

Now with 4e and the DDI, everything is pretty well consolidated in WotC. The GSL was pretty much a flop (and despite The Rouse's attempts to resurrect it, I don't think we'll be seeing much use out of it). If you want to find something about D&D, you go to wizards.com, you go to ENWorld, you go to RPG.NET or whatever. You don't do random Google searches. There simply isn't that much out there. And, if you're not playing 4e, you aren't doing searches for D&D either. You're searching Pathfinder or OGL or M&M or the myriad of other, very specific, things you are looking for.

So, I think it is quite easily explained why searches for D&D would be in decline.

 

[Umbran]

How is this any different from 2004, though?

We can only speculate. That's kind of my point.

But to my mind, this would imply that there are fewer new gamers, who after all would use searches to find the good sites since their bookmark lists aren't so long yet. This still sounds like a decline to me.

Yes, this is exactly what I mean. It is a decline, but not necessarily in the outright size of the gaming population. There is a big difference between "shrinking" and "growing more slowly".

Google has processed a very large number of data points, which ensures a fairly high statistical significance. It worked when they are tracking the outbreaks of diseases, after all...

I am not disputing the statistical significance of the data. I am reasonably convinced that a beast as big as Google has some clue about statistics.

I am saying we have to be very careful about the conclusions we draw from the data. Raw data tells you what, it doesn't tell you why. It is very easy to come up with several stories - both of ours are quite plausible. But which is accurate? Neither of us can say with any confidence.

 

[fba827]

bah, some of us don't bother searching for 'd&d" or other variationsbecause we already found the websites we're comfortable with (*cough*EnWorld*cough*), therefore I would be one person whose interest has not diminished yet I don't search for it.