What can Google Insight tell us about RPGs?

[ggroy]

Yes, this is exactly what I mean. It is a decline, but not necessarily in the outright size of the gaming population. There is a big difference between "shrinking" and "growing more slowly".

There's also the possibility of the population being flat, with the data fluctuating around a horizontal line.

 

[xechnao]

On a side note check the keyword wow. It seems to make up for all the decline of d&d in google traffic from 2004 till now.

 

[Mark]

Just some thoughts . . .

I wonder how many people who have lost their jobs in the last few years used to use the Internet at work but cannot or don't have it at home?

I wonder how many people who would have done such searching from work, and never had time at home (or couldn't) are so in fear of losing their jobs that they no longer spend their work time in that manner?

I wonder how many people forego general searching to instead take advantage of direct links from trusted sources, such as the EN World News Page?

I wonder how many new search engines have sprung up in this above period, cutting into the data points being tracked by Google?

I wonder how many companies are so much better at not hiding their URL on packaging and advertising that it is less often that general searching through Google is less necessary?

 

[Umbran]

Just some thoughts . . .

Yah. Mark gets the idea. There's so many possible contributors to so simple a measure that it is hard to draw clear conclusions.

 

[ScottS]

...Since someone asked but no one answered the question: the "d&d 4e"-type searches start off slow in June 2007, reach a huge (relative) peak at the release date in June 08, drop to around 25-30% of peak by September, and have stayed pretty much constant since then. "d&d insider"-type searches follow the same trend except they blip up a bit in Feb/Mar 09 and level off at 35-40% of the Jun08 peak. (I don't follow DDI news so I have no idea what product date that corresponds to.)

 

[Starglim]

I think you'd have to interpret those numbers with some caution. edit: As various other people have said, I'd most often search for games that I'm not playing.

 

[ScottS]

...People shop on the Internet. People use Google searches for shopping. Hence, there's some positive correlation between Google hits and "consumer interest" in a product, yes?

What are we supposed to be cautious about: assuming that the Insights numbers don't represent exact sales figures? (e.g. that people are buying 65% less D&D product now than at the start of 2004, that new 4e releases are selling at a flat 25-30% volume of the gift set, etc.) Even if the correlation were perfect, the numbers wouldn't have to be one-to-one, so I don't see the point in dismissing the Google data entirely...

 

[Charwoman Gene]

Hence, there's some positive correlation between Google hits and "consumer interest" in a product, yes?

Not necessarily

 

[Umbran]

People use Google searches for shopping. Hence, there's some positive correlation between Google hits and "consumer interest" in a product, yes?

Probably, but that's just my opinion. In any case, "some positive correlation" really doesn't allow you to go very far in analysis.

What are we supposed to be cautious about: assuming that the Insights numbers don't represent exact sales figures?

Well, the OP wasn't about sales at all, but general statements about the size of the gaming community, and whether it has been shrinking.

Even if the correlation were perfect, the numbers wouldn't have to be one-to-one, so I don't see the point in dismissing the Google data entirely...

You seem to be overstating. I don't recall anyone in this discussion coming anywhere near suggesting we dismiss the Google data entirely.

I have said that we need to be very careful about drawing conclusions from the data. The data itself is probably pretty accurate, but out thoughts about what the data means are apt to leave out lots of possibly major factors.

 

[samursus]

Anecdotally, I haven't typed in just "D&D" in google ever.... I have always known it was to be found at the easily remembered wizards.com. I have put in D&D with other qualifiers however (eg with Eberron Players Guide) ...as well as using "Dungeons and Dragons".

In regards to shopping, even when I do so online (rarely) i go directly to amazon or ebay...especially for an WOTC product...its known fact that nobody beats amazon for WOTC books. All other RPG browsing for me, comes from links in WOTC boards, ENWorld, /tg/ etc...rarely do I ever have to google for something RPG related.