What happened to that plane that vanished in flight?

[Olgar Shiverstone]

Almost no military tracks commercial flights in that way when the flight is leaving territory and heading out to sea. Just not a concern. Even today NORAD doesn't say anything about a flight heading to say the UK if it alters course on a more Southerly track out of D.C. rather than a Great Circle route.

Well, then what's the Vietnamese military's excuse? The flight was headed into their airspace and dropped off the transponder right before crossing into their airspace. Or Thailand? (I'll neglect the Cambodians -- they don't have a lot of capability). There's a number of countries whose interests overlap in the area where the aircraft disappeared.

I admit I don't know the specific early warning ranges in that part of SE Asia. Ironically we recently completed an exercise focused on the South China Sea and I was looking at radar coverage, but it was in a different part of SCS.

 

[Scott DeWar]

As a military guy it makes me wonder a bit about the air defense proficiency in the region. An airborne track that ceases to squawk, especially if it changes course shortly thereafter, is highly suspicious even if it appears to be a civilian flight on a normal air route. Once it deviates, it should at a minimum set off alarm bells that cause increased vigilance and closer tracking even if no intercept action is taken -- those could be indications of a disguised smuggling flight, a hijacking, or other cause for security concern.

Former US Air Force here. There are navigational transponders that constantly bark out an identifying code. One way for that code could disappear is if it were suddenly destroyed/malfunctioned. another way is if the particular code were changed by the pilots of someone else through the avionics bay.

Now I don't normally like to feed the conspiracy theorists, but if the two passport thieves were on board to do just that, that is steal the aircraft by changing the transponder code, here is my theory:

With pilot/ crew in on it, they have the passports stolen as a red herring. Then one of the crew goes down to change the code and the whole aircraft the veers off on another course.

why do that?
To kidnapp for ransom - air piracy
something/someone on board worth a lot of money/has information
seems like I saw something like my scenario in a Tom Clancy novel.
something else that is too ugly for me to imagine

I realize this post is a bit disjointed, I just can't wrap my mind around this.

 

[Janx]

Wrong

double wrong back at ya. So I named the wrong agency. The DOD and Norad are tracking every object in space they can find.

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/news/orbital_debris.html#.UyDKmPldX6U

Don't be such a quibbler. The US tracks a lot of stuff. I don't expect them to track asian stuff headed for asian places, and I implied as much in the logic of my statement.

I do posit, as Olgar stated, that the countries in that area have their own interests in tracking stuff around their countries. Just as the US does for its own.

 

[Olgar Shiverstone]

why do that?
To kidnapp for ransom - air piracy
something/someone on board worth a lot of money/has information
seems like I saw something like my scenario in a Tom Clancy novel.
something else that is too ugly for me to imagine

Certainly feasible, but the thing that argues against the conspiracy theories to me at this point is the lack of communication. If this was a terrorist act, or hostage-taking, or something, you'd expect demands/threats/taunts by now.

That suggests to me that the in-flight disaster, significant crew error, or bizarre action on part of the pilots is more likely. If I had to bet at this point, I'd bet "exploded or crashed into the sea, just not quite where we think."

But still ... really insufficient evidence to form more than a broad set of hypotheses and try to gather information to try and narrow them down.

 

[Scott DeWar]

On the hostage theory, how often do we here of the piracy/kidnapping in places like the Gulf of Aden?

 

[Kramodlog]

Some guy working on a oil rig saw a plane in fire crash near the original search zone.

The Chinese guberment just released some sat pics of what could be reckage in the same zone.

Seems the wormhole damaged the damaged the plane and didn't swallow it.

 

[Scott DeWar]

Some guy working on a oil rig saw a plane in fire crash near the original search zone.

The Chinese government just released some sat pics of what could be wreckage in the same zone.

Seems the wormhole damaged the plane and didn't swallow it.

But what set it on fire?

And China is just now creating via photo shop disclosing the sat fotos? GAH!

Ah ha! so there WAS a wormhole!!!

 

[Arduin's]

Well, then what's the Vietnamese military's excuse?

Excuse for what? A visible commercial flight not yet over their legal territory but is over the ocean stops squawking and drops off of ATC radar. What do they need an excuse for?

 

[Olgar Shiverstone]

On the hostage theory, how often do we here of the piracy/kidnapping in places like the Gulf of Aden?

Lots, and usually pretty quickly after a ship is captured (though the capture rate has been falling due to the EU-led naval policing effort).

 

[Scott DeWar]

Lots, and usually pretty quickly after a ship is captured (though the capture rate has been falling due to the EU-led naval policing effort).

Our ships are there too, such as the USS Boxer. I don't watch much TV so I guess I don't hear much about the piracy.