What Happens If CODENAME: MORNINGSTAR Doesn't Fund?

With 2 weeks to go, and only 13% of the $425,000 raised, and those two weeks being Christmas, the odds are that Codename: Morningstar won't fund. There might be a last-minute turnaround, of course, but the prognosis right now does not look hopeful. Trapdoor Technologies leader Chris Matney addressed the possibility, saying that "not pledging is telling the industry that you are happy with the status quo."
[lq]...if there does not appear to be a sufficient market interest our continued investment in the gaming industry is not assured.[/lq]

Below is what Chris Matney said on the subject. You can find the Kickstarter here.

What If We Don't Fund?

Yesterday, I addressed the question about why Trapdoor needs $425,000 to fund the completion of Morningstar. Today, I want to chat briefly about what happens if we don't fund via our Kickstarter campaign. The answer is somewhat more complex than you might imagine, so please bear with me.

First, we need to assess whether the gaming community has a real interest in our technology. The response to our Kickstarter is part of that answer - and I won't deny that the role player in me will be disappointed if we don't fund.

Our decision to jump into the gaming market was not made lightly. Trapdoor is a software company that builds interactive publishing applications. This technology is at work in commerce, education, and other fields. Role-playing games are complex and thus a perfect showcase for our interactive technology which simplifies prep and play. This is a greenfield opportunity for us and the industry. No other gaming company provides digital distribution beyond PDFs.

Your pledge to our Kickstarter campaign is the best way to express interest in bringing a remarkable, captivating and new experience to our hobby. It is the only way to 100% guarantee the success of Morningstar.

If we don't fund (and assuming there is demonstrable interest in the technology), we will need to reevaluate the current gaming ecosystem: looking for publishers who are interested in leveraging Morningstar into their gaming system, assessing the OGL for D&D 5e (if any), combing the feature set in Morningstar to see what can be pushed back, etc. With $1.2M invested in the project to date, we would obviously like to see Morningstar launch. However, as with any business if there does not appear to be a sufficient market interest our continued investment in the gaming industry is not assured.

The community and you have some decisions to make in the next two weeks. If you share our vision, pledge. Even if you don't think we will fund - throw your support behind our cause. Kickstarter collects pledges only if the funding is successful. It's a no risk proposition - at worst, you will show your support. Not pledging is telling the industry that you are happy with the status quo. Hopefully, you elect to be on the ground floor of a truly remarkable journey.

Respectfully submitted.
Chris Matney
Managing Director
Trapdoor Technologies
​

[lq]...not pledging is telling the industry that you are happy with the status quo.[/lq]

​

 

[Morrus]

Actually you are a "Backer", there is a reason kickstarter uses that word, It's very clear in their fine print that you don't have any of the protections/rights of a Investor or a Customer. The well run Kickstarters that gain positive community following more often than not will treat you as a Investor or Customer anyways despite not being obligated to, they know goodwill goes a very long way!

You're right. You're not even a customer. But, importantly to the post we're discussing, you're definitely not an investor!

 

[Hollow Man]

You're right. You're not even a customer. But, importantly to the post we're discussing, you're definitely not an investor!

I was really trying to say one is invested in the product. Point is that Kickstarter backers have more interest in the products and companies then the average consumer, which is why they want to know where the money is going. Which is why Matney bringing up that no one cares how much Apple spent on iPad development isn't a fair comparison. Kickstarter backers are a different breed than normal consumers and buyers.

But my point isn't worth arguing about.

-HM

 

[Morrus]

I was really trying to say one is invested in the product.

Sure. That means something very differently to what the word "investor" is understood to mean, though. I took away a different post to the one you thought you typed I know. Intrawebs. Language.

Interest is a product is not the same as being an investor. An investor buys shares and the associate risk or gain. A Kickstarter backer doesn't do that.

Which is why Matney bringing up that no one cares how much Apple spent on iPad development isn't a fair comparison.

I disagree. If the popular backer level gave a clear immediate (beta) reward and kept growing with stretch goals, the funding total would be far higher than it is. That $425K is your personal whipping boy that you can't stop going on about, but it's not so egregious. If it were a stretch goal in an differently structured Kickstarter, it might even have been reached by now. The total is a perspective Pr problem, but it's not the fundamental problem (I know it's your fundamental problem, though).

 

[Hollow Man]

The total is a perspective Pr problem, but it's not the fundamental problem (I know it's your fundamental problem, though).

It's one problem, and the one that astonished me when I first saw the Kickstarter. But it's not my main problem. My first main problem is that right now I don't have faith they can deliver a product, even if they raised the money they want.

My second main problem is that they lost the 5e license, and so even if they prove me wrong and can actually release a product that works as advertised, it's unclear to me what they'll be able to do to support it fully in the future, even if WotC releases a new SRD. This is what saddens me the most. The day that DungeonScape got cancelled, man, I was disappointed.

Trust me, I'd rather they succeed. I was a big fan when this was announced by WotC, and that's why I continue to follow it. 5e needs this sort of thing so I'd be happy to be proven wrong by them.

-HM

 

[Morrus]

It's one problem, and the one that astonished me when I first saw the Kickstarter. But it's not my main problem.

Really? Man, in that case you need a better PR guy!

 

[Hollow Man]

Really? Man, in that case you need a better PR guy!

Now you know why I'm an IT guy, and not a business kinda guy! I never said I could do better than them, heh.

EDIT: Although I suppose I may have implied it! But yeah, trust me, there's a reason I'm not in business...I wouldn't ever want to have the responsibilities Matney has.

-HM

 

[DMZ2112]

...I agree with that statement. IME, a significant portion of the gaming community is simply not that tech savvy. They cherish their books, print out pdfs from desktop computers and are more than content with using pencils to update their paper character sheets.

I'm not sure 'tech savvy' is the right phrase here. For me, at least, the issue is that books, paper, and pencils are still the most efficient means of indexing and modifying the information necessary for tabletop in real time. I'm plenty tech savvy -- tech savvy enough to know that the best tech for this job is still made of wood. When I'm shopping for a new application, requirement A-1 is that it does the job more efficiently than the one I already have. Hero Lab and Realm Works are great for prep, but at the table even they are just too slow. My session notes still consist of a sheet of chaotic looseleaf.

Oh, s**t, that's totally my alignment. Chaotic Looseleaf.

an on-line service

AND EVEN IF THE TOOL WAS EFFICIENT, this would make it a great big nope for me. I strenuously object to the idea of subscription software. Ten years ago I would have said it was a necessary evil, but the last decade has conclusively proven that a quality evolving experience can be funded by at-will in-app purchases. I don't need to pay you every month for the digital version of a new book a few times a year!

So, yeah, the status quo is okay by me.

 

[turkeygiant]

Meh. We use the most recent figures. We'll use the new ones next quarter. If you want to get into the "my personal guess about the figures in-between quarters is more accurate than the figures at the end of the most recent quarter" game, that's fine.

I predict D&D will have the #1 spot next quarter (I may be wrong but that's my bet), but the data we have so far has Pathfinder up until now.

I prefer tea-leaves myself. What measure do you prefer?

Haha, I mean sales have a part to play, but a really accurate measure would consider brick and mortar sales, plus direct/amazon/drivethrurpg sales, and then balancing that against polling on what games people are actually sitting at the table and playing (which frankly should be the most heavily weighted factor in determining popularity). The sales numbers you use are never going to perfectly match up what people are actually playing, Just because 4e slowed down on their sales didn't mean that people suddenly stopped playing D&D, hell people still play D&D with editions that have been out of print for decades.

I'm sure your analysis is pretty good for the sales numbers, but it shouldn't necessarily be confused as an accurate representation of how popular and embraced the systems are.

I would love to see a Poll: What rpg systems and editions have you played in the last year, with the option to pick more than one because my group has played at least three.

 

[Morrus]

Haha, I mean sales have a part to play, but a really accurate measure would consider brick and mortar sales, plus direct/amazon/drivethrurpg sales, and then balancing that against polling on what games people are actually sitting at the table and playing (which frankly should be the most heavily weighted factor in determining popularity). The sales numbers you use are never going to perfectly match up what people are actually playing, Just because 4e slowed down on their sales didn't mean that people suddenly stopped playing D&D, hell people still play D&D with editions that have been out of print for decades.

I'm sure your analysis is pretty good for the sales numbers, but it shouldn't necessarily be confused as an accurate representation of how popular and embraced the systems are.

I would love to see a Poll: What rpg systems and editions have you played in the last year, with the option to pick more than one because my group has played at least three.

It's not my analysis.

Also, it's a sample.

And, as a counterpoint, you can look at what games are being talked about.

http://www.enworld.org/forum/hotgames.php

(though if you exclude the official sites, D&D is ahead there)

I mean, you can cite anecdotes and opinions, but we go with what data we have. It may be imperfect, but it's an order of magnitude better than "there are no Chinese people in my street, therefore Chinese people do not exist".

 

[was]

Oh, s**t, that's totally my alignment. Chaotic Looseleaf.

Ahem...now that I have wiped off all the soda I just snorted onto the screen I can say that totally describes most of the folks I have gamed with.