What Happens If CODENAME: MORNINGSTAR Doesn't Fund?

With 2 weeks to go, and only 13% of the $425,000 raised, and those two weeks being Christmas, the odds are that Codename: Morningstar won't fund. There might be a last-minute turnaround, of course, but the prognosis right now does not look hopeful. Trapdoor Technologies leader Chris Matney addressed the possibility, saying that "not pledging is telling the industry that you are happy with the status quo."
[lq]...if there does not appear to be a sufficient market interest our continued investment in the gaming industry is not assured.[/lq]

Below is what Chris Matney said on the subject. You can find the Kickstarter here.

What If We Don't Fund?

Yesterday, I addressed the question about why Trapdoor needs $425,000 to fund the completion of Morningstar. Today, I want to chat briefly about what happens if we don't fund via our Kickstarter campaign. The answer is somewhat more complex than you might imagine, so please bear with me.

First, we need to assess whether the gaming community has a real interest in our technology. The response to our Kickstarter is part of that answer - and I won't deny that the role player in me will be disappointed if we don't fund.

Our decision to jump into the gaming market was not made lightly. Trapdoor is a software company that builds interactive publishing applications. This technology is at work in commerce, education, and other fields. Role-playing games are complex and thus a perfect showcase for our interactive technology which simplifies prep and play. This is a greenfield opportunity for us and the industry. No other gaming company provides digital distribution beyond PDFs.

Your pledge to our Kickstarter campaign is the best way to express interest in bringing a remarkable, captivating and new experience to our hobby. It is the only way to 100% guarantee the success of Morningstar.

If we don't fund (and assuming there is demonstrable interest in the technology), we will need to reevaluate the current gaming ecosystem: looking for publishers who are interested in leveraging Morningstar into their gaming system, assessing the OGL for D&D 5e (if any), combing the feature set in Morningstar to see what can be pushed back, etc. With $1.2M invested in the project to date, we would obviously like to see Morningstar launch. However, as with any business if there does not appear to be a sufficient market interest our continued investment in the gaming industry is not assured.

The community and you have some decisions to make in the next two weeks. If you share our vision, pledge. Even if you don't think we will fund - throw your support behind our cause. Kickstarter collects pledges only if the funding is successful. It's a no risk proposition - at worst, you will show your support. Not pledging is telling the industry that you are happy with the status quo. Hopefully, you elect to be on the ground floor of a truly remarkable journey.

Respectfully submitted.
Chris Matney
Managing Director
Trapdoor Technologies
​

[lq]...not pledging is telling the industry that you are happy with the status quo.[/lq]

​

 

[turkeygiant]

It's not my analysis.

Also, it's a sample.

And, as a counterpoint, you can look at what games are being talked about.

http://www.enworld.org/forum/hotgames.php

(though if you exclude the official sites, D&D is ahead there)

I mean, you can cite anecdotes and opinions, but we go with what data we have. It may be imperfect, but it's an order of magnitude better than "there are no Chinese people in my street, therefore Chinese people do not exist".

That's pretty cool Iv'e never seen that before! I definitely think that's way more representative of how "popular" a RPG is, at least among the people who lurk online talking about them (like me...). I wonder if it would be possible to use the Google trending to find broader references and search requests to the different categories across the entire internet? I messed around with it a bit and Pathfinder and Dungeons and Dragons were the only systems that had any search traffic, at least as far as I could tell in 5 min.

 

[Morrus]

That's pretty cool Iv'e never seen that before! I definitely think that's way more representative of how "popular" a RPG is, at least among the people who lurk online taking about them (like me...). I wonder if it would be possible to use the Google trending to find broader references and search requests to the different categories across the entire internet? I messed around with it a bit and Pathfinder and Dungeons and Dragons were the only systems that had any search traffic, at least as far as I could tell in 5 min.

The word Pathfinder is primarily associated with a car. That makes Google search comparisons difficult.

 

[InexplicableVic]

Erik Tenkar has a pretty good take on this: http://www.tenkarstavern.com/2014/12/wayward-kickstarter-codename.html

 

[turkeygiant]

The word Pathfinder is primarily associated with a car. That makes Google search comparisons difficult.

Google can usually differentiate between different uses of the same word, as you enter in the search term you need to make sure you choose the right sub heading.

Edit: Yeah like this:
http://www.google.ca/trends/explore#q=/m/04dzk1_, /m/026q9&cmpt=q

 

[Nikosandros]

You're right. You're not even a customer. But, importantly to the post we're discussing, you're definitely not an investor!

You're right that a KS backer is not an investor, but - as you say - he's not a standard customer. This means that it's normal for a backer to be more concerned about the viability of the project. If I buy a book from Paizo, that book has already been published. If I pledge for KS, I take the chance that the product will never be created or be substantially different from the original description. It's not so strange then that potential backers take a long hard look at the broader picture, taking into consideration things such as the credibility of the business plan or the long term viability of a subscription based project.

That said, and reiterating my reservations about this project, I'm still very surprised about the amount of venom that I've seen about Morningstar.

 

[InexplicableVic]

That said, and reiterating my reservations about this project, I'm still very surprised about the amount of venom that I've seen about Morningstar.

I think the displeasure with Trapdoor Technologies' position is valid, based upon the history of how we got here and the hubris embodied in the response.

I tried the beta for their D&D character generation product, and thought, after several character creation attempts, "Wow, this has a LOT of bugs...it was probably not even ready for beta-testing." WOTC then pulls the plug on it, for undisclosed reasons. I can understand Trapdoor's frustration, and how it wants to recover its investment. So it comes up with a somewhat new idea that hopefully will work with WOTC's competitor, but needs $425k to finish the project. Instead of funding it itself and selling a good product to consumers, it's asking the consumers to pay up front for basically an IDEA. That's asking a lot, but fine...until Trapdoor resorts to the "guilt trip" approach to begging for funding that makes assumptions that simply aren't true, insinuating that consumers who don't fund this idea are somehow complicit in the status quo (which is perceived as bad). That's akin to someone at a farmers' market yelling, "If you don't buy my organic broccoli, you're a jerk and supporting the evil efforts of huge agriculture companies that are destroying our society." Only there's no actual broccoli, but a promise that I'm going to grow some and possibly give it to you later.

Part of the problem is the Kickstarter funding approach in general when it comes to ideas as opposed to finished products. Dungeon Tiles, Reaper Bones -- those Kickstarters (2 highly successful ones for each company) were done because the companies had a track record of producing...not the idea of minis or resin tiles. Sure, that's different from software to an extent, but...

Take the example of id software and Doom. They released the first 10 levels for free. After just about everybody played that, they couldn't resist paying $40 for the rest of the game. It's the drug distribution model: give it to them for free, get them hooked, and then they'll buy your product. It has been used successfully in the video game industry time and time again, with the release of free demos (of course, those demos have to be good). That COULD be done here. But Trapdoor is doing the reverse: consumers tried its D&D product, and it was not something that we felt compelled to buy, by any means--it was buggy and unfinished, but to the extent that it was confidence-shaking. On the heels of that, it now asks for a huge amount of funding...but the users have little faith in Trapdoor's skills.

Trapdoor seemingly doesn't realize that the beta testers who are interested in playing D&D 5e are probably not at all that interested in Pathfinder. Let's also not forget all the D&D players hoping for digital tools that are now going to wait even longer--and the perception is because Trapdoor was not competent enough to get that job done. I'd say they would be frustrated, annoyed, and having no faith in Trapdoor.

So, that brings us to the thread's title and Trapdoor's hubris: Against that backdrop, a little humility would have served Trapdoor better. But more importantly, it could have released some type of free demo--to whatever limited extent--that was bug-free, and would entice people to fund a new project (to unlock features not yet developed). It didn't do that, and now it is effectively trying to guilt trip people into donating money for a concept with no proof that it will actually work. It's no surprise that people would find this completely off-putting.

 

[Lord Rasputin]

Forgive my ignorance, but does an akin app exist for Pathfinder? If not, then it makes sense to develop the tech for it, and later apply it to the newer 5e. (It also makes sense to go iOS first. It has the bigger installed tablet base and the iPad sales issues are exaggerated since the tablets rushing into its place are cheap ones aimed at folks who don't buy many apps and don't update their copies of Android.) I share everyone's indignance at Trapdoor's pitch, since it makes no sense to insult those whose money you want, but it needs to get something out the door and fast.

 

[nerfherder]

I'm almost tempted to back it because it looks like a win-win:
a) if it doesn't reach its goal, I get my money back;
b) in order to reach their goal, they will have to demonstrate that this is the best thing for gaming since sliced bread - and I'd like some of that!

 

[DMZ2112]

I'm almost tempted to back it because it looks like a win-win:
a) if it doesn't reach its goal, I get my money back;
b) in order to reach their goal, they will have to demonstrate that this is the best thing for gaming since sliced bread - and I'd like some of that!

That's how Kickstarter gets you, Nerfherder. Unfortunately there are dozens if not hundreds of ways for a company to demonstrate that their product is the best thing since sliced bread and then mysteriously not deliver that product.

Back if you want to back, but don't do it because it is a win/win. That's a damn clever illusion.

 

[Hollow Man]

Back if you want to back, but don't do it because it is a win/win. That's a damn clever illusion.

Yes, I personally only back projects I'm convinced will deliver a product. If one isn't convinced, then back if you truly believe in what the project is trying to accomplish, because if you don't get your reward, there's no guarantee you'll get your money back.

-HM