What happens if One DnD fails?

[Frozen_Heart]

So the worst (for WotC and Hasbro) happens. One DnD launches and instantly makes 4e look like a record success. Meanwhile all the players just continue quietly playing 5e instead.

This is a question which has been on my mind since before the OGL disaster, as pretty much every single person I've talked to plans to just keep on playing 5e rather than switching to One DnD.

Do WotC/Hasbro double down on it and keep pushing it hoping for it to eventually become popular? Do they do a 4e and try to push out a replacement edition as fast as possible? Do they try to force people to switch by removing all the 5e tools from DnD Beyond?

Or do the higher ups at Hasbro just decide the brand isn't possible anymore, and throw the entire thing into the bin of dead IPs?

 

[GMforPowergamers]

So the worst (for WotC and Hasbro) happens. One DnD launches and instantly makes 4e look like a record success. Meanwhile all the players just continue quietly playing 5e instead.

is there a reason to take a pot shot at 4e (all we know is it was the 2nd best selling version of the game, and that it ALSO was teh only time that a trusted (by community) partner put out a continueation of the most resent edition...

now for the main question, nothing.

Nothing happens if it fails, not that I am even sure what failure means... it's the 50th anniversary they could sell us anything and make a profit.

D&D movies, TV shows, Coloring Books and Video games go on. We, the community lose.

maybe we see 6e/7e/19e a bit sooner (and hopefully is based on a fixed 4e with way less hp)

 

[Composer99]

I don't think OneD&D will fail.

I hope (though I cannot be too optimistic) that OneD&D doesn't do as well as WotC/Hasbro wanted it to do, and that this under-performance can be traced back to their shenanigans.

Edit: To engage with the premise of the thread, though, I think if OneD&D were to crash and burn - not merely "disappoint shareholders", but actually bomb, game line, merchandising, subscription service, and all - then I think that would lead to Hasbro killing support for the game line (if not wider merchandising) until they felt brand nostalgia had grown enough to make a reentry into the market worthwhile.

 

[Frozen_Heart]

Nothing happens if it fails, not that I am even sure what failure means... it's the 50th anniversary they could sell us anything and make a profit.

'Failure' here just means most players choosing to stick on the prior edition rather than moving to the new one.

And what do you mean 'nothing' happens. 'Something' happens even if the edition is a record success with 100% of all DnD players migrating over. That 'something' being they continue to put out OneDnD products and stop printing new 5e products.

 

[aco175]

If the roll out is a 3.0 to 3.5 and not a 4e to Essentials it will flip the players over time. The players will want the new options and the DMs may want the corrected rules and the nerfs on certain things. If it is a 6e and not a 5.simething, then who knows.

 

[Scribe]

So the worst (for WotC and Hasbro) happens. One DnD launches and instantly makes 4e look like a record success. Meanwhile all the players just continue quietly playing 5e instead.

This is a question which has been on my mind since before the OGL disaster, as pretty much every single person I've talked to plans to just keep on playing 5e rather than switching to One DnD.

Do WotC/Hasbro double down on it and keep pushing it hoping for it to eventually become popular? Do they do a 4e and try to push out a replacement edition as fast as possible? Do they try to force people to switch by removing all the 5e tools from DnD Beyond?

Or do the higher ups at Hasbro just decide the brand isn't possible anymore, and throw the entire thing into the bin of dead IPs?

They carry on with the new generation of players.

Their profit margins now, are grossly higher than they ever have been. They can absorb this blow to their reputation and integrity.

There are enough people who will buy anything they put out, will cheer loudly for anything they do, and will consume anything and everything while asking for the next helping before they swallow what they have.

This isnt an edition issue, its their rep that's been destroyed thats all, and as we have seen on this forum alone, there are many who do not care, as long as they get their D&D fix.

 

[Malmuria]

A different question might be: what happens if “dnd” as an IP and lifestyle brand fails? As in the movies, tv shows etc are not as popular as they expect? They may find out soon that dnd is not marvel or lord of the rings.

 

[GMforPowergamers]

'Failure' here just means most players choosing to stick on the prior edition rather than moving to the new one.

every edition change some change early, some come around later and some never update.

And what do you mean 'nothing' happens. 'Something' happens even if the edition is a record success with 100% of all DnD players migrating over. That 'something' being they continue to put out OneDnD products and stop printing new 5e products.

I can only think of 1 example of a system going back... new world of darkness going back for the V20/V5
so what happens is the same thing that always happens... new D*D books come out... the speed and what t hey are may change, but no there is not "OMG" levewl of fail

 

[delericho]

OneD&D doesn't really matter. What matters are the movie (and, to a much lesser extent the TV show) and D&D Beyond subscriptions. Hasbro are betting big on both of these, so if they bomb...

I think the answer is that they'll put D&D into their Vault of Dead IP, where it will be forever studied by Top Men.

(And since this would be the second time they've tried to make D&D huge, and the second time it's blown up in their faces, I doubt we'd see a third chance.)

 

[Lanefan]

OneD&D doesn't really matter. What matters are the movie (and, to a much lesser extent the TV show) and D&D Beyond subscriptions. Hasbro are betting big on both of these, so if they bomb...

This is my current theory. 5.5e in itself is almost irrelevant. They're betting big - way too big, IMO - on the movie, and maybe the TV series.

I think the answer is that they'll put D&D into their Vault of Dead IP, where it will be forever studied by Top Men.

Would they? Dead IP doesn't make anyone any money.

Or would they sell the franchise, and at least make some money on it that way as a one-shot?

(And since this would be the second time they've tried to make D&D huge, and the second time it's blown up in their faces, I doubt we'd see a third chance.)

Is it ironic that the one time it did get huge under their stewardship wasn't really because of anything they did?

 

[Greg Benage]

Is it ironic that the one time it did get huge under their stewardship wasn't really because of anything they did?

More than that -- it got huge when they were actively ignoring it for once.

 

[Weiley31]

Then WoTC rolls their third Death Saving Throw.

 

[Psikosis]

So the worst (for WotC and Hasbro) happens. One DnD launches and instantly makes 4e look like a record success. Meanwhile all the players just continue quietly playing 5e instead.

This is a question which has been on my mind since before the OGL disaster, as pretty much every single person I've talked to plans to just keep on playing 5e rather than switching to One DnD.

Do WotC/Hasbro double down on it and keep pushing it hoping for it to eventually become popular? Do they do a 4e and try to push out a replacement edition as fast as possible? Do they try to force people to switch by removing all the 5e tools from DnD Beyond?

Or do the higher ups at Hasbro just decide the brand isn't possible anymore, and throw the entire thing into the bin of dead IPs?

I think they've substantively hurt themselves, including OneD&D and maybe even the upcoming movie. They won't throw the IP in the trash, but if OneD&D fails to achieve commercial success, they will have confirmation they've created a problem for themselves. I'm already not at all interested in OneD&D. Nothing is nearly "broken" enough in 5e to make spend money to fix it. I'm happy with my paper books, resin dice, and in-person gamers. There's nothing in OneD&D I need or want. After this debacle, I'm even less interested because how can I trust them with my data and that my digital purchases will not be taken away at some point?

 

[Shiroiken]

If the roll out is a 3.0 to 3.5 and not a 4e to Essentials it will flip the players over time. The players will want the new options and the DMs may want the corrected rules and the nerfs on certain things. If it is a 6e and not a 5.simething, then who knows.

I think this is the $1B question. Based on what we've see so far, this is very much a Revised 5E/5.5E than a 6E, so I think that regardless of the nonsense concerning the OGL, it will be at the very least a moderate success. If it were to completely fail, I think this would be because of the OGL battle and not because of 1D&D itself.

 

[THEMNGMNT]

This whole situation bums me out. 5E is my favorite version of D&D. This is an exciting time to be a fan. OneD&D is built on the same chassis. The future was looking really bright. Now the whole viability of the brand is at risk because of unnecessary corporate overreach. Dumb, Wizards. Dumb.

 

[kenada]

If 6e fails, we can wait six years for 7e, and it’ll probably do okay.

 

[FallenRX]

It will likely be fine, because unless 4e, they are making a actual dnd game, that is also compatible with the previous edition.

We dont even know if its 6E yet.

 

[UngainlyTitan]

Define failure: I do not think that there is enough difference between 5e and One for a real likelihood of failure as a ttrpg even by historical standards. Now WotC and Hasbro's ambitions for D&D, is a different matter. I think that that is vested in the VTT and the monetisation strategy. This could fail, it is a real risk. Particularity if they cannot stop existing IP issued under the OGL from continuing. Mostly becuse that muddies the waters with regard to automation support on non WoTC VTT. If I were a VTT maker that does not have a secure licence situation extening over the next 5 years or so I would be looking at how to make rules automation easy for DMs and players while also being agnostic as to the ruleset.
Mind you, I think that, that risk is small. Still the VTT would want to be a very compelling package to draw people in. It needs to really add value to DMs in the first instance.
The other thing is the patience of management and investors. I think that WoTC has the resources to make that VTT a success in the long run but has the investors the patience to throw that much money at it.

 

[mamba]

OneD&D doesn't really matter. What matters are the movie (and, to a much lesser extent the TV show) and D&D Beyond subscriptions. Hasbro are betting big on both of these, so if they bomb...

agreed, and I for one have lost all interest in their movie, shows or a DDB subscription (didn't have one, but this essentially ensures I will never have one...)

If D&D shrinks back into something that Hasbro lets live on the side, I am perfectly fine with that, seems a much better position to be in anyway. They Eye of Sauron can search for things to extort elsewhere

 

[Reynard]

Assuming actual backward compatibility, the new core set could "fail" while the first big adventure or monster book made for it could still sell well.

In that case, I think it would be a clear signal to WotC that 5E is fine the way it is and they would probably just keep serving it up that way and quietly ignore the new Core rules.
But I don't think that's likely. Grousing to the contrary, I think anyone still playing 5E when the 1D&D core set comes out will switch over sooner rather than later. I'm guessing the PHB wil be the best seller by far, though, and the DMG the worst. The Monster Manual's sales will depend on the art, mostly, I think.