D&D (2024) What happens if One DnD fails?

[Umbran]

(And since this would be the second time they've tried to make D&D huge...

I don't see as OneD&D is an attempt to make it bigger than it already is - it is already bigger than it has ever been. 5e made it huge.

All this license nonsense was to make it exclusive.

 

[Umbran]

Do WotC/Hasbro double down on it and keep pushing it hoping for it to eventually become popular?

So, if what they've been saying about backwards compatibility is true, they don't have to push OneD&D. They'd sure like everyone to buy new rulebooks, but if we don't... there's going to generally be compatibility anyway. They can keep publishing D&D books, and not care so much if folks are using One or 5e.

Maybe they sort of treat OneD&D as a collector's game, and slowly elide back to 5e, as if none of this ever happened. OneD&D becomes the New Coke of RPGs, that in 10 years folks chuckle over, and study in marketing classes, but isn't a big deal.

 

[payn]

I dont think the failure (if it happens) would be due to people not switching over or buying the books, it will be because the VTT and online tools are not good. In this event, 5.5E oneddd or whatever, still sells well like 4E did but wont be as successful as anticipated. Probably launching a real 6E.

 

[FormerLurker]

It won't.

40% of their fanbase is under 25 and likely wasn't able to read during the OGL boom of the 2000s. And many of the remaining 60% won't give a toss over losing 3PP which they didn't allow at their table anyway...

They'll take a hit but the game will still likely be better than 5e was at launch, and they can replace lost players with newcomers over the next decade.

 

[Matt Thomason]

I think the worst that could potentially happen is a repeat of Pathfinder being spawned by Paizo at the release of 4e. Lets remember that did not kill D&D either.

From WotCs perspective, worst case scenario is a 5e clone hits the shelves and they have more competition than they did before the OGL 1.1 hit. Then VTT people come up with tools that work even better with that than WotCs in-house thing does with OneDND.

From the perspective of the rest of us, all things considered, that's not a bad "worst case" to have at all.

But even if that happens, D&D will continue in some shape or form. They may scale back even more on the studio itself and produce only a handful of books, they may knock their VTT idea on the head (once again - anyone remember the previous times it was going to happen?), but the license is bound to be used in other ways that bring money in even if the RPG itself doesn't do well, even if it's just licensed properties.

Possibly, they'll put in extra effort to regain any lost market share, and customers everywhere win.

 

[Umbran]

I think the worst that could potentially happen is a repeat of Pathfinder being spawned by Paizo at the release of 4e. Lets remember that did not kill D&D either.

Indeed. Some of the lessons learned may have helped in the development of the best selling game product ever!

The most self-fulfilling prophecy we ever commit is to consider a failure as a failure, rather than as a learning opportunity. Take a risk, if it doesn't work, you learned things, and can do better next try.

 

[Lanefan]

Define failure: I do not think that there is enough difference between 5e and One for a real likelihood of failure as a ttrpg even by historical standards.

Depends how many people are willing to stick with 5e as is (or go to an adjacent version e.g. LevelUp).

Also depends on what Critical Role does; if they leave and can pull most of their fandom with them WotC's in a world o' hurt.

Mind you, I think that, that risk is small. Still the VTT would want to be a very compelling package to draw people in. It needs to really add value to DMs in the first instance.
The other thing is the patience of management and investors. I think that WoTC has the resources to make that VTT a success in the long run but has the investors the patience to throw that much money at it.

The VTT is only any use to them if people move to 5.5e, as I can't for a second imagine WotC supporting legacy editions on it.

 

[UngainlyTitan]

....

The VTT is only any use to them if people move to 5.5e, as I can't for a second imagine WotC supporting legacy editions on it.

I agree with you but if the VTT is half as good as they think it is they should support everyone, that way they can sell the little quality of life addons (art, maps and character/npc minis ) to everyone and monetise all fans.

 

[UngainlyTitan]

Depends how many people are willing to stick with 5e as is (or go to an adjacent version e.g. LevelUp).

Shrug, 5e is a decent game, I expect the network effect, that most of the players know it will pull them through.

Also depends on what Critical Role does; if they leave and can pull most of their fandom with them WotC's in a world o' hurt.

Yeah that could hurt. I am not sure that CR wants to burn any bridges they do not have to.

The VTT is only any use to them if people move to 5.5e, as I can't for a second imagine WotC supporting legacy editions on it.

You are probably right but I think that WoTC are missing an amazing opportunity if the VTT is closed.

 

[Aldarc]

I am skeptical that it will fail based on this alone. The outrage cycle tends to be relatively brief, especially when consumers are eager to find excuses to consume.