D&D 5E What if the D&D Core outsells the revised D&D Core?

[Parmandur]

Yes, but all of that is true right now.
New audience.
Hit trailer and looks like a hit franchise. (OK that's still on the bubble, maybe, but it's gone from "unsure" to "well maybe"). The D&D franchise was a hit for Magic, selling a ton of Magic. (which frankly I'd never have guessed).

The only surprise about D&D plus Magic selling so well was that they waited 20 years to pull the trigger.

My point is, in terms of the lightning in a bottle, the conditions seem to be improving. New iterations of Monopoly or Settlers of Catan donslow down sales any, and D&D is entering that territory rather than a niche hobby hanging in for dear life.

 

[Umbran]

Sure yea. But what if the new core tanks? Regardless?

Then they'll make business decisions. We, not being on the inside of the business, can only make guesses.

Uninformed guesses are a dime a dozen, and worth what you pay for 'em.

 

[darjr]

Then they'll make business decisions. We, not being on the inside of the business, can only make guesses.

Uninformed guesses are a dime a dozen, and worth what you pay for 'em.

I haven't paid anything yet.

 

[MGibster]

While I have no doubt WotC does a much better job of gathering data and using it to make business decisions than TSR ever did, I don't know if the entirety of 5th edition's successes are a result of their decisions. And in regards to any market studies they do, even big companies read the data wrong and make decisons that seemed right at the time but in hindsight were wrong. How many people here remember when Coca-Cola's market research led them to New Coke in 1985?

 

[overgeeked]

Reverse coarse and put the original print core back into print?

Go back to the 3rd edition/4th edition and cycle the core rules again?

Never happen.

I'm looking for what you'd do in that situation?

If D&D were mine what would I do? I'd put the main rule books/boxed sets of every edition into print and/or POD. Leave the various supplements as POD options. Let people play what they want. Put out evergreen campaign settings with just the lore. Put out setting anthology books with the rules for every edition, POD. Make each setting's edition specific rules a PDF that people can purchase. Make all the books PDFs that people can purchase. And spend some of that Hasboro money re-typesetting the old main books/boxed sets instead of leaving them as terrible scans.

The only surprise about D&D plus Magic selling so well was that they waited 20 years to pull the trigger.

My point is, in terms of the lightning in a bottle, the conditions seem to be improving. New iterations of Monopoly or Settlers of Catan donslow down sales any, and D&D is entering that territory rather than a niche hobby hanging in for dear life.

Ugh. I hope not. I can't imagine a more bland edition of D&D to take properly mainstream.

I haven't paid anything yet.

Exactly the point.

 

[Parmandur]

Ugh. I hope not. I can't imagine a more bland edition of D&D to take properly mainstream.

Too late, this is the Forever version of D&D already, from here on out it's just variations that stay compatible.

 

[Umbran]

I haven't paid anything yet.

So you're getting bargain-bin uninformed opinions!

Be really sure to check the expiration dates before opening them, because an opinion gone bad will really stink up the place.

 

[UngainlyTitan]

What if the new books tank then? I wonder if they'll just be called the PHB DMG and MM?

They almost certainly will just be called that

 

[Parmandur]

They almost certainly will just be called that

Alternatively, they could do something like a"Rules Cyclopedia" that effectively replaces the PHB amd DMG while providing plausible deniavility if it doesn't take off.

 

[overgeeked]

Too late, this is the Forever version of D&D already, from here on out it's just variations that stay compatible.

Doubt it. Once the new fad wave dies they'll redesign again. It might take awhile, but once sales have peaked and start declining, they'll put out a properly new and different edition again.

 

[Parmandur]

Doubt it. Once the new fad wave dies they'll redesign again. It might take awhile, but once sales have peaked and start declining, they'll put out a properly new and different edition again.

The major assumption here is that D&D's current popularity falls under the rubric of "fad." Not everything that is popular is a fad. Look at, say, Chess, or Monopoly, or Settlers of Catan, or Magic the Gathering. Some things just stay popular.

 

[UngainlyTitan]

Doubt it. Once the new fad wave dies they'll redesign again. It might take awhile, but once sales have peaked and start declining, they'll put out a properly new and different edition again.

That really depends on where the profit is coming from, at that time. If it is the game then yes. If movies, TV or video games then maybe not.

 

[darjr]

So you're getting bargain-bin uninformed opinions!

Be really sure to check the expiration dates before opening them, because an opinion gone bad will really stink up the place.

It’s why I keep coming back here.

 

[darjr]

The only surprise about D&D plus Magic selling so well was that they waited 20 years to pull the trigger.

It took so long because they weren’t shure. It was attempted several times and was dumped each time until that free experiment on the DMSGUILD and even that was almost nixed.

 

[bedir than]

It's going to die at some point, right? I like that D&D is very popular, but I don't think it's going to last forever.

It's not going to die when we are at peak fantasy tv and movies though.

 

[Stormonu]

If it tanks, WotC will pack the entire game up and put it in storage for 15 years down the road, realizing the game's heyday has come to a close. Or issue new core books in 2 years if they're desperate for cash.

Either way, I don't expect I'll be picking up new core books, I've already got 5+ editions as it is.

 

[Parmandur]

It took so long because they weren’t shure. It was attempted several times and was dumped each time until that free experiment on the DMSGUILD and even that was almost nixed.

Yeah, but it always seemed like a surefire hit to me. I understand their caution, but I don't think thst it was well founded.

 

[bloodtide]

Well, maybe you might think that Wizards would think they "changed too much" with the new core rules and maybe come out with the new new Core rules that go back to basics.

But I'm pretty sure they would go the other way: release 6E with even MORE changes, as 5.5E did not change enough.

 

[MGibster]

It's not going to die when we are at peak fantasy tv and movies though.

Probably not. But then I think of Masters of the Universe which generated nearly $40,000,000 in sales for Mattel in 1986 and only $7,000,000 in 1987. Once we get over the peak, sales might tank and they might tank hard.

If it tanks, WotC will pack the entire game up and put it in storage for 15 years down the road, realizing the game's heyday has come to a close. Or issue new core books in 2 years if they're desperate for cash.

I'm thinking D&D would continue to be published albeit on a much smaller scale. Depending on how hard it crashed I guess.

 

[Parmandur]

So, out of curiosity, I looked upmwhat defines a "fad" exactly, and it turns out that D&D right now doesn't qualify as a fad at all. It has been growing too hard for too long now to fit under the rubric, though it can vary between fields. Apparently in fashion, a fad is defined as anything that is only fashionable for a single season or less. Anything more is a fashion trend, and that can last decades.