Well, IMHO...
I think the "next big thing" would be a set of new things/ideas for the game. As it is, I don't think it'd be a good time to jump to 4E, since Neverwinter Nights 2 and the Eberron MMORPG are still kinda new in comparison. They're not WoW, but they're an electronic option that can get people interested in the game.
I think a
big thing that could help D&D is a good, viable Basic game set. One which easily allows characters from that game jump into a mainstream game (and vice-versa). Things that, IMHO, would be
critical for this Basic game set would be:
- A set of starter minis--it's a good move used with the sets they have now, & it should be continued.
- A reduced selection of classes, though it should still provide a decent variety. I'd recommend one core class per attribute: Fighters (Str), Rogues (Dex), Barbarians (Con), Wizards (Int), Clerics (Wis), and Bards (Cha). To simplify the classes somewhat, make some of the feat or bonus feat selections pre-selected for the Basic game. For example, have all 1st-level Fighters get Weapon Focus as their bonus fighter feat, then get Weapon Specialization as their 4th-level bonus fighter feat, etc. Or, only list 5-9 deities for clerics to choose from (one per AL with 9; or either LG-CG-N-LE-CE or NG-LN-N-CN-NE with 5), and have fixed domains for each deity (reusing some domains when possible), to keep the number of domains listed low. Have higher-level rogues get set special abilities at 10th+ level. And, don't include familiar rules for wizards. The characters would be just as viable in a "mainstream" game as in a basic game. These pre-selected bonus feats shouldn't have skill rank or ability score prereqs, in order for any sort of character to follow its progression.
- No Prestige Classes (at least for the Basic Game).
- A limited selection of Feats, though they operate just the same as the feats in the core game. Ideally, the PHB feats should be enough, maybe sans some feats for unavailable classes (like Druid) or some slightly more complicated selections not as viable with the reduced options (like Wizard Specialization with the shortened spell list).
- Allow for 1st-10th (if not 1st-20th) level progression.
- To keep things easy, maybe trim down the spell list to the "tried & true" spell selections: magic missile, sleep, fireball, lightning bolt, invisibility, fly, cure light wounds, etc.
- A reduced list of monsters. Keep some of the more iconic monsters (orcs, dragons, ogres, oozes, etc.), but not many (if any) of the "unconventional" ones (like the yrthak, xill, or the like). Include generic NPCs of particular races or classes not normally available for the Basic game (e.g., like an assassin, dwarven defender, or gnome).
- A somewhat reduced equipment list: only include a few "common" exotic weapons (like bastard sword, net, whip, etc.) along with the usual simple & martial weapons; just have light & heavy shields; etc. Also have characters with starting packages plus a set amount of money (basic equipment & a dagger, class-related gear, and money for armor & weapons, instead of X amount of gp per class). Don't give all fighters a longsword and scale mail, in case a player wants to start off with a bow instead, and rolled a high Dex that could be hampered by wearing scale mail.
- A reduced list of magic items: e.g., for armor & weapons, either a straight-up bonus, or a specific armor or weapon. Of course, drop magic items allowed only for classes or races not available in the Basic game.
- A seperate module, like the bonus B2 module in the Moldvay set, rather than having a starter in the "core" rulebook.
- At least 1 set (but preferably 2-3 sets) of dice included (color-coded for convienience).
There still should be some degree of selection available, but not as much as in the standard game. However, everything should work out rules-wise in D&D, so a Basic player can easily use his/her character in a typical D&D game.
How about more affordable paperback copies of the 3 core books--may be a nice way for the cash-strapped beginner to get a set of books, esp. if they want to move on from the Basic game set. Maybe even have a packaged set of the 3 core books in paperback, along with a set of dice to go with it.
And, maybe seriously consider developing a Magic: The Gathering campaign setting for D&D. Or, conversely, perhaps develop a CCG based around D&D magic, which could be used in an actual D&D to represent duelling wizards (or dueling spellcasters in general).
Finally, how about something really good to promote D&D to the public, like a
good D&D movie, or a D&D cartoon that can appeal to both kids & adults (hey, if Batman: TAS, Superman, and JL can do it...). Have promotional material to along with it--a special D&D minis set featuring characters from the movie/cartoon, a sourcebook for the movie/cartoon, etc. And (though this may be unpopular with some), definitely have it all set in Greyhawk--that way, the default D&D materials can easily work for new players who're drawn in by the movie/cartoon.