Just for sake of argument, let's assume 15th level characters. I want to spitball ideas on what the adventure looks like in the lead up.
Background
The Realm where the adventure takes place is a remote, small kingdom nestled in some mountains far enough away from the Center of Civilization that it has relatively rare contact but not so remost or small that no one knows about it. As stated in the OP, a dragon in the region recently awoke and set to burning fields, eating livestock and terrorizing peasants. The dragon was an Ancient that has been slumbering for centuries as it became a Great Wyrm. The kingdom is young enough that no one even knew the dragon existed -- except the xenophobic wood elves living in some of the forest lands on the edge of the Realm. The King rides out with a retinue intent upon destroying the dragon but is not up to the task and ends up killed and eaten, with his armor, weapons, crown and scepter all added to the dragon's hoard. Since then, the dragon has been attacking even more often, including emptying the tombs of the former kings of the Realm and the barrows of the people that lived here before, amassing an even greater hoard. The Queen and the Heir realize that the whole Realm will fall if someone does not stop the dragon, so she puts out a plea for aid and the PCs are the group that answers the call.
Outline
The PCs arrive and go see the Queen and Heir and get the whole story. The rest is literally up to them, regarding how they find the dragon and its lair.
Knowing where and when various attacks have taken place will get the PCs close -- within a few dozen square miles. There are no witnesses that can lead them all the back to the alir though. The lair is a remote mountaintop cave, inaccessible except by flight.
The PCs can get more precise information by visiting the Wood Elves. The wood elves are no friends of the Realm and aren't terribly sad it is being destroyed, but they also aren't allies of the dragon and expect they could ultimately end up its victims. i like the idea that the elves are the remnants of an ancient elven civilization like Rivendell that the dragon destroyed centuries ago and the elves have resorted to a more naturalistic lifestyle to avoid notice of the dragon.
There are a few villages and tombs/barrows that have not yet been attacked, and the dragon attacks around once a week. They could make an informed decision about one to wait in, and then when the dragon attacks attempt to kill it or maybe just track it from there to its lair.
Thinking About PC Abilities
All that said, 15th level characters will have lots of tools up their sleeve. I am sure there is plenty of magic that could potentially be used to locate the dragon and bamf into its lair, and I would like to make that harder. The dragon slept for half a millenia and had to be secure from dragon slayers and (more importantly) other dragons hoping to take its lair and hoard for their own. So the lair should be protected against scrying at least, if not also teleportation.
I think Legend Lore would really only provide the same information the elves could give, because it has to be lore someone knew at some time. Players would argue that it should reveal the location of the lair, which it might. It couldn't be used to tell where the dragon would strike next, though. That is future knowledge, not lore. I don't think they could use Find the Path to locate the lair because you have to already be familiar with the location. Locate Creature or Object doesn't seem to be a big concern because they have to get within 1000 feet to use it. Those would be more like final confirmation and triangulation spells.
What am I forgetting about?