D&D 4E What was Paizo thinking? 3.75 the 4E clone?

[Psion]

I've been saying this all along and totally agree with you. Are we the only two members on this board that have a degree in economics and management that can see this and know the science.

Well, I gotta say that I find it less than convincing that supposed experts come here forecasting doom for Paizo when Paizo has something you don't: actual sales figures. No credible economist I know of would make a forecast without historical data.

Sounds to me like you are appealing to your authority, not making any actual well founded conclusion.

 

[Wulf Ratbane]

Sounds to me like you are appealing to your authority, not making any actual well founded conclusion.

It was a flagrant appeal to authority. 15 yard penalty at least.

 

[Nikosandros]

First of all...here's another lost charter subscriber.

I had already decided to keep my Pathfinder sub through the end of Crimson Throne whether they went with 3.5 or 4. What I wasn't prepared for was a 3.75. And after further thought, I find "3.75" to be an incredibly bad idea...and so, since it became clear that Paizo wasn't a company I'd be doing business with in the long term, I cancelled my subscriptions (4 of them, to be exact).

If they clue in and pull Pathfinder back toward 3.5 compatibility, I might come back...but a system that isn't really 3.5 compatible? No chance. This mainly serves to cement my resolve to move forward to 4E.

Pathfinder will use the 3.5 rules until August 2009. This means the current (just begun) AP and the next two.

Now, if you only intend to play 4e, I understand the decision not buy any more 3.5 material, but if you desire 3.5 compatibility, you have it in full for a year and a half. Why cancel now?

 

[Rauol_Duke]

It was a flagrant appeal to authority. 15 yard penalty at least.

... with no loss of downs

 

[Firevalkyrie]

After all, without the Microsoft of some 20 years ago, we might be doing this chat on a IBM mainframe now.

That is a bad, bad example. Microsoft had more capital at that point than anybody else in the business bar IBM. They also had their OS and office software installed on 80% or more of every IBM/compatible installation, and a wide reputation for quality software (scoff if you like, it's true). Microsoft also had a handshake agreement not to compete with IBM (under that agreement, OS/2 was to be the business OS for IBM compatible machines, while Windows 95 would be the consumer OS), which they promptly reneged upon. Outside of the small core of internet-savvy gamers who are committed enough to post on the internet about gaming, Paizo's reputation dwindles to "Who's that?" really fast.

I am going Paizo and not looking back.

By the time Pathfinder is actually released (GenCon 2009 in its "final" form, discounting the free PDF-distributed betas and the necessarily limited supply of for-cost print betas to be distributed at Gen Con 2008), the train will have left the station without them. People aren't going to wait for (debatably) perfect when they can have good-enough right now.

If Pathfinder was ready to go NOW, there would be a market for it at least until 4E hits, and it would have a chance of surviving. As is, because of the awful timing, its probably going to sink without a trace. They're going to be asking - with a straight face - for people to pony up money for last year's fashions, and that's never a winning strategy.

 

[Haffrung Helleyes]

That is a bad, bad example. Microsoft had more capital at that point than anybody else in the business bar IBM. They also had their OS and office software installed on 80% or more of every IBM/compatible installation, and a wide reputation for quality software (scoff if you like, it's true). Microsoft also had a handshake agreement not to compete with IBM (under that agreement, OS/2 was to be the business OS for IBM compatible machines, while Windows 95 would be the consumer OS), which they promptly reneged upon. Outside of the small core of internet-savvy gamers who are committed enough to post on the internet about gaming, Paizo's reputation dwindles to "Who's that?" really fast.

Umm.. I was working at IBM, on OS/2 in fact, at the time. Now granted, I was just one of the peons, but no one I knew at IBM thought we had a handshake agreement with Microsoft over Windows 95!

If this was true, it was a big, big secret at the time, because IBM professed , both internally and externally, to be going after both consumer and business customers with OS/2. What is your source?

Ken

 

[Imaro]

By the time Pathfinder is actually released (GenCon 2009 in its "final" form, discounting the free PDF-distributed betas and the necessarily limited supply of for-cost print betas to be distributed at Gen Con 2008), the train will have left the station without them. People aren't going to wait for (debatably) perfect when they can have good-enough right now.

If Pathfinder was ready to go NOW, there would be a market for it at least until 4E hits, and it would have a chance of surviving. As is, because of the awful timing, its probably going to sink without a trace. They're going to be asking - with a straight face - for people to pony up money for last year's fashions, and that's never a winning strategy.

You know, even though I have seen this sentiment expressed more than once, I have to say I don't agree with this at all. I really think Paizo is making a smart move in avoiding getting lost in the release of 4e...why try to compete directly and around the same time? Doesn't make sense.

Secondly I think that those who are sticking with 3.x are going to be following the design of Pathfinder already...what waiting till 2009 for the finished product does is open up the possibility that those who, after playing 4e for a longer amount of time, find it not to their liking (you know like the same way it took time and actual play beyond 1st level for 3e's so called "problems" to be brought to light) may be more apt to pick up Pathfinder if 4e has dissapointed them in the long-term.

 

[Rauol_Duke]

As is, because of the awful timing, its probably going to sink without a trace.

Right... with over 5,000 downloads of the Alpha in the first 48 hours after the announcement, it sure seems like it'll be a sinker alright. :\

 

[Brennin Magalus]

I've been saying this all along and totally agree with you. Are we the only two members on this board that have a degree in economics and management that can see this and know the science. We aren't puling this out of where the sun doesn't shine, it is science and it's fact. If I had the numbers, I would crunch it and do the curve. I doubt I will ever see the numbers. I don't need the numbers here, it's slapping me in the face and should do the same to you.

Uh, "economics and management" is not science. Nor is it fact. At the higher end economics can be very quantitative (I have taken two graduate econometrics classes because of their mathematical/statistical content) but that does not make it science or fact.

 

[Jack99]

Right... with over 5,000 downloads of the Alpha in the first 24 hours after the announcement, it sure seems like it'll be a sinker alright. :\

I am fairly confident that a lot of people are like me. I plan on switching to 4e, have no intention of switching to PF 3.75 or whatever the name is, but I still downloaded it immediately, to see what they were cooking up, and maybe steal an idea or two for my remaining 2½ months of playing 3.5.

Doesn't mean I think that PF 3.75 will tank, merely that 5k downloads mean very little.