delericho said:
The only problem I have with that theory is this: if there isn't enough money for Hasbro to be interested in the line, why spend two years (and goodness knows how much money) on developing a whole new edition?
I think the RPG industry does have whales.
I just think those whales are the people who buy three core books and maybe an adventure or two...and then maybe play some video games or something. The dolphins are the people who read novels or play games, but who don't buy or play the RPG.
Plus, there's a hard limit on what RPG stuff you can
actually use. If I have a group of 6 people, even if we play on a weekly basis, with the DMG, the MM, and the PHB, I have more material than I will need in
years of D&D gameplay. I'm only going to use 5 races and 5 classes until I reboot the campaign in 9 months to a year, so why sell me more races and more classes? I've got more than 1,000 monsters of which maybe half will see the light of day in my campaign, so those extra monsters aren't really going to get used, either. I've got all the magic items I need right there in front of me, and plenty of advice on how to make more. Selling more RPG stuff isn't going to benefit the hardcore RPG player, and it might actually damage the RPG as a whole with bloat and complexity that create a barrier for newbies to enter.
So RPG books aren't what you sell to the RPG whales.
Maybe you sell them video games, or board games, or card games, or novels, or comic books, or whatever, but that's dolphin territory...
IMO, the thing holding back D&D there is generally that, aside from games, their stuff has a reputation for not being very high quality. Muddy, lethargic video games, pulpy novels re-hashing the same ancient, tired characters...there's exceptions, absolutely, but not enough to change that perception. They need
good branded product if they want the demanding whales to be appeased. They seem to be doing OK with board games, and there's possible change on the horizon for the other stuff.
Unless WotC can figure out how to sell me more hours in a week to play D&D at a table with friends (which is THE BEST D&D), it's hard to figure out what would sell to a whale like me.