I suspect years, at least 5-6 before they would even consider giving up on the license... And if we'll ever see another book for FFG SW, I doubt it at this point. Maybe a second edition IF Asmodee ever gets in a better financial situation and I suspect that's also going to take years.
Now, look at the history of the SW RPG: WEG went bankrupt, WotC choose to not continue the license in 2010, apparently the sales of the RPG and the prepainted miniatures line were not good enough for WotC to extend the license.
WEG went bankrupt due to other licenses: Indiana Jones, Tank Girl, Ghostbusters, MIB, Hercules & Xena, Batman d6, Necroscope... Star Wars was paying the bills nicely until they got too many licenses with limited appeal (TG, MIB, H&X, Necroscope) and the consulted with Asimov on Shatterzone.
TORG also ran out of steam about the same time...
And the GB license sunsetted. Also around then. WEG SW died because of everytghing else besides SW...
FFG got the license to SW about a year after it expired with WotC. WotC had already announced in January 2010 that they wouldn't extend the license, I suspect that there weren't many parties that could realistically do anything practical with it, otherwise it would have been picked up far sooner.
There were several bidders for it. Mongoose was interested, even pitched it. Got told, "no thanks." Matt's comments upthread downplay his interest in it.
I think a Traveller version could be good... but I don't know if Mongoose should
Before the Asmodee merger they release SW X-wing (miniatures), the SW Living Card Game, the SW RPG, not much after (or even during) they released Imperial Assault (board game), and SW Armada (miniatures).
I would also like to add that FFG has historically not been afraid to drop IPs they have milked dry, examples are the whole Games Workshop license, DUST, DOOM, StarCraft, WarCraft, Battlestar Galactica, and quite a few others. Even in their own IPs, they'll drop them hard when there's no more money in them. As Edge is still reprinting SW books, there's still money in that, and looking at the miniatures/cards side, there's money there as well. Just currently not in making more new books...
Edge isn't FFG, and does business differently. FFG only has the boardgames now; Asmodee ripped the SW, Genesys, and L5R properties away to Edge, to "Reduce business overlap"... and in the process fired everyone who had worked on either system.
Why would Disney pull the license when they get paid the licensing fee?
Because they think they can get a better ROI by licensing someone else. At the next renewal window, I'd be shocked if Asmodee came out of it with a renewal. Why? Because it's not selling enough.
I suspect that the RPG license is contractually tied to the other fields of cards, miniatures and boardgames. So splitting that up would be a headache for Disney.
They split the licenses before. They're likely to again. They already have a split of licenses for computer games.
Not to mention re-licnesing a property is going to cost quite a bit in lawyer fees.
Not so much to the licensor; the licensee's up front fees cover that.
Currently, as long as Asmodee keeps extending the license and paying on time, for Disney there is no upside.
Wrong. Disney knows that things not getting new material don't generate them as much in royalties.
While we don't know the exact terms, we do know it's a flat up front fee, and then a per unit sales rate; I don't know if it's a percentage or a per copy or a per page. If they can end the deal with Asmodee, then they can find someone else who will produce more unit sales.
More wildly, they could easily go to the d6 copyright/trademark holders, and say, "Hey, we'll let you do the entire WEG back catalogue provided you update it to conform to current understandings of the setting."
Especially if there's a risk that a new (smaller) licensor might go broke and even more costs for a new licensor deal need to be made. Not to mention the damage to the IP, because a couple of books and then another licensor that again reinvents the wheel is going to damage the IP.
Technically, LFL owns all of the WEG and D20 versions' texts. There's a proof that there is a reprint right, too, in that WEG d6 1e was reprinted (near verbatim) for core and sourcebook. And it sold. Not as well as many hoped for, but it's a great reprint.
All Disney needs to ensure are (1) the company will be getting more sales than current FFG sales at renewal time, (2) the company is big enough to put out multiple books, and (3) the company has a sales channel sufficient to achieve #1.
Given the lack of new material, even tho' there are 3 finished series not covered at all, and sales are slow on the reprints...
Now, a single unified license, like FFG had? It's burned FFG and Disney with the rather abrupt end of a number of SW lines... not just FFG SW. Disney could make a whole lot more with fresh blood on the job... or a small bit less... but a new licensee means up front and new products.
