Why 5E may be the last edition of D&D

[Mercule]

I think the weakest part of 5e is its dependence on the Forgotten Realms. if there’s something that players will tire of it’s playing in that Disneyworld-esque mess of poor world building.

I've said it enough times even I'm getting tired of it, but I think the 5E "brand management" has sucked in the sense of merging the game system and the setting. If I got three wishes, somewhere after having a couple billion dollars and before world peace comes "erase the Forgotten Realms from existence" (or, at least, force WotC to sell off the IP rights to the Realms in a way that prevented further comingling). Petty, yes, but such is life.

 

[Zardnaar]

The studios are looking for big budget franchises: if you want an indication of what level of budget D&D will get, look at the release date they have set for it.

Release date doesn't matter. Are they dropping $200 million+ into it. If they're not its not big budget.

 

[Hussar]

Heh. People keep talking about how 5e isn't doing well. Good grief. When the market of RPG's has seen double digit growth, year on year, for the past four years, who do you think is driving that growth? Where do they think that money is going? What RPG company is out there that's making all these sales, that isn't WotC, and driving massive growth?

Since the tail end of 4e, the RPG market size has TRIPLED. In, what, five, six years, we've seen a 300% increase in the size of the market. Just who do you think is driving that growth?

 

[generic]

Heh. People keep talking about how 5e isn't doing well. Good grief. When the market of RPG's has seen double digit growth, year on year, for the past four years, who do you think is driving that growth? Where do they think that money is going? What RPG company is out there that's making all these sales, that isn't WotC, and driving massive growth?

Since the tail end of 4e, the RPG market size has TRIPLED. In, what, five, six years, we've seen a 300% increase in the size of the market. Just who do you think is driving that growth?

I mean, obviously, it's the small, strange, games that most haven't heard of, FATAL in particular.

 

[Parmandur]

Release date doesn't matter. Are they dropping $200 million+ into it. If they're not its not big budget.

Probably in the $150-200 million range, though obviously it is early days since the release is 2.5 years away. Comparable projects from Paramount in the ~$150 million range ($200 isn't big budget, that's Star Wars budget) include Iron Man, Captain America, Transformers and G.I. Joe all risky ventures Paramount doesn't in the IP for at all.

Time will tell on whether it makes money or is good, but certainly it is a serious project unlike what came before.

 

[Oofta]

Heh. People keep talking about how 5e isn't doing well. Good grief. When the market of RPG's has seen double digit growth, year on year, for the past four years, who do you think is driving that growth? Where do they think that money is going? What RPG company is out there that's making all these sales, that isn't WotC, and driving massive growth?

Since the tail end of 4e, the RPG market size has TRIPLED. In, what, five, six years, we've seen a 300% increase in the size of the market. Just who do you think is driving that growth?

Well we have it on good authority that D&D is on the verge of failure, a complete flop of a movie is being planned and there will never ever be another D&D game. Z has spoken.

Previous movies have nothing to do with the next one any more. While the game will ultimately plateau and decrease nobody knows when that will be. In the meantime, let the good times roll!

 

[FrogReaver]

There's been a lot of D&D books. Would any book be worth making a movie out of?

 

[Zardnaar]

Well we have it on good authority that D&D is on the verge of failure, a complete flop of a movie is being planned and there will never ever be another D&D game. Z has spoken.

Previous movies have nothing to do with the next one any more. While the game will ultimately plateau and decrease nobody knows when that will be. In the meantime, let the good times roll!

Did you miss the part I think 5E will be a 10 year edition give or take a year (9-11). And I could be completely wrong on that number but yeah its gonna be a long edition relative to the other WoTC editions, miht even go 11 or 12 years. I would almost bet 6E will arrive eventually and would bet money on that being 2024 +/- 1 year.

That is not a flop, I just don't put much stock in claims about a D&D movie or game being a smash hit just because it has the name D&D on it. The franchise just isn't that big.

Can it happen sure, but you will need a kick ass story that can cross over into the mainstream. If every active D&D player rushes out and buys a ticket that what $100 million, $150 million. Nice number but not exactly a smash hit as far as movies go (unless the film was an indie one with a shoe string budget). Movies are also creeping up past the $300 million dollar mark to make/market etc.

Same thing with a D&D game, most of the new ones seem to suck. And the ones that exist have next to sod all to do with the 5E mechanics.

5E did triple the size of the market but to put it in perspective it was the low point of the RPG market, there had been no D&D in print for 2 years and D&D has more or less always made up a huge % of the market. So yeah context matters.

 

[Mercurius]

5E did triple the size of the market but to put it in perspective it was the low point of the RPG market, there had been no D&D in print for 2 years and D&D has more or less always made up a huge % of the market. So yeah context matters.

You are really understating just how wildly successful 5E has been - and yes, taking context into account. I believe Mearls when he says that it exceeded his wildest expectations. And yes, I do think it has a lot to do with the game itself - the simplicity of the rules, the oldish school feeling, the presentation. Social media and celebrity gamers have helped, possibly enormously so. There is just a cultural zeitgeist.

I wonder if there's some degree of video game fatigue that is occuring - Millenials and "Gen Zers" wanting something more organic, more imaginative - and more social. I'd love to see whatever market research WotC has done to explain the success story.

Anyhow, at some point the growth will slow and then stop, and then sales will drop. It is inevitable. As I said, the question is whether they plummet or find a still-high plateau. The latter would imply a sustainable, evergreen model that could continue indefinitely, with only minor tweaks and re-skinning. The former would probably lead to a new edition.

But for now we can enjoy this new golden era...

 

[FrogReaver]

Did you miss the part I think 5E will be a 10 year edition give or take a year (9-11).

That is not a flop, I just don't put much stock in claims about a D&D movie or game being a smash hit just because it has the name D&D on it. The franchise just isn't that big.

Can it happen sure, but you will need a kick ass story that can cross over into the mainstream. If every active D&D player rushes out and buys a ticket that what $100 million, $150 million. Nice number but not exactly a smash hit as far as movies go (unless the film was an indie one with a shoe string budget).

Same thing with a D&D game, most of the new ones seem to suck. And the ones that exist have next to sod all to do with the 5E mechanics.

5E did triple the size of the market but to put it in perspective it was the low point of the RPG market, there had been no D&D in print for 2 years and D&D has more or less always made up a huge % of the market. So yeah context matters.

The nice thing is that D&D can tell almost any story. That makes it relatively easy to make a movie about. The only issue is that there's really not a unique and iconic d&d story to draw inspiration on.

The problem with D&D movies in the past has been budget, backdrops and special effects, and story. Personally I think a D&D tv series on Netflix would be a better place to start probing that kind of market. I think there is enough magical and medieval settings in tv and movies now that even lower budget productions can get plenty of ideas on how to make medieval backdrops and magical special effects work. Story is really the big question.

Personally I would rather see something like a Netflix series than a major motion picture. Movies just don't get the opportunity to have all the twists and turns in it that a tv series can have. They also don't get the opportunity to develop unfamiliar settings and characters as well as fantasy tv series can.

Also , I think a D&D cartoon could work out really well too.