Why can't WotC break the mass market barrier?

[CharlesRyan]

I don't want to be argumentative here, but I think there may be a little rose-tinted hindsight on this thread.

Yes, in the 1980s, D&D received a lot of public attention, as a fad in certain demographics and as an infamously demonized phenomenon in others. Both of these drove media attention and eventually a spate of licensing (though, at best, it just touched the edges of mainstream). And yes, a lot of people purchased and played the game.

But a lot of people purchase and play the game today. They do it with a lot less media fanfare (though the amount of media coverage in 2004, the 30th anniversary year, was incredible), but they do it in huge numbers.

As I write this, there are 1719 users online on ENworld--1719 people engaged (in a rather hard-core manner) in D&D on a Wednesday morning! More people attend Gen Con every year. RPGA membership continues to rise. Even more importantly, the number of reported RPGA events continues to rise. If I was still at WotC, I'm sure I could cite a dozen other data points. And where they have any comparison to data from the 80s, this data generally shows more D&D going on today than back then.

Is it counter-intuitive, given the fadlike status of D&D back in 1982? Sure. But counter-intuitive doesn't make it false.

 

[T. Foster]

I think the anomaly of lower public visibility combined with still-healthy sales can mostly be attributed to a larger core of hardcore fans (buying a product a month, or even a product a week) vs. a smaller periphery of casual fans (buying one or two products a year, if that). Total book sales might be the same, or even higher, despite the size of the audience being smaller. The same applies to GenCon attendance and ENWorld traffic -- these remain stable, or even go up, because they're drawing the hardcore fans. What's missing are the people who never were going to GenCon or gaming websites but were nonetheless playing the game and raising its cultural profile.

 

[kenobi65]

I think the anomaly of lower public visibility combined with still-healthy sales can mostly be attributed to a larger core of hardcore fans (buying a product a month, or even a product a week) vs. a smaller periphery of casual fans (buying one or two products a year, if that).

Related to that might also be the nature of what the D&D line was like in, say, 1983, versus now. Back then, TSR might release one new hardcover book a year; in the 3.5 era, it seems like there's a new hardcover every month or so.

 

[Gentlegamer]

Related to that might also be the nature of what the D&D line was like in, say, 1983, versus now. Back then, TSR might release one new hardcover book a year; in the 3.5 era, it seems like there's a new hardcover every month or so.

Adventure modules were released more regularly and sold 500K. Also, D&D (basic) boxed sets.

 

[SiderisAnon]

You Can't Have Mass Market Without Mass Sales

There is something else you have to consider about the mass market outlets like Wal-Mart and Target: Simply put, they're never going to sell the kind of niche market products that D&D represent.

Have you actually shopped at one of these stores recently? Take a look at the shelves for most products and then count the number of brands available. In most things, they've got only a few brands, usually a name brand and a cheap knock-off. In some products, they don't even have that. (For instance, in buying trash bags at my local Target, I can buy the kind they stock or I can shop somewhere else. When I bought ice cube trays, they had two kinds available. In canned pet food, they carry two brands only.)

There are a few exceptions. You look at the area around the pharmacy, and it's huge. That's because people are really picky about things like cough syrup, soap, shampoo, aspirin, and other personal care and health products. Wal-Mart or Target can't just stock two things and call it good.

Toys are another exception. This is because there is a plethora of types of toys out there and every kid wants their favorite. Of course, once something isn't either the hot new seller or the long-running seller, it disappears from the shelves.

Take a moment to look at the games they have there. Most of them are the ones that are old favorites and will keep selling multiple copies every week. Monopoly, for instance. There are a few that are the next big thing. What you don't see is games with a small niche market. You see "family game night" sort of games, or games kids can play on their own.

It's not a statement against D&D or Axis and Allies, it is a statement about what sells well. It simply is not worth the shelf space to these stores to stock a game they're only going to sell one of every month or so. They want things that they can sell constantly. If the product isn't cycling, it's wasting money because it's wasting shelf space that could be dedicated to something that is cycling.

I used to work part time in the toy department at Wal-Mart for extra money. If a product wasn't selling, if we weren't having to restock it, it would hit the bargain bin and be gone from the store forever more.

Now, I'm not saying that it's right or wrong. I am saying that this makes perfect business sense with the model that they are using. Wal-Mart and Target are NOT about selection, despite what they may claim in their ads. These stores and the other big discounters are all about selling lots of cheap stuff over and over. If you want selection, you go to a specialty store. If you want cheap, you buy whatever Wal-Mart and Target chooses to put on the shelves.


This is not intended to be a rant against these stores. In fact, I fully support these stores because I like being able to buy a number of things cheap. However, I'm realistic enough to understand HOW they are getting those cheap prices and realize that I have to choose between price and selection.


So, it boils down to they might stock a basic boxed set or some miniatures if they think it's going to sell, but they're not going to waste shelf space on something they can keep turning over. D&D is just not that kind of product.

Anyway, just my 2 cents.

 

[Thornir Alekeg]

I don't want to be argumentative here, but I think there may be a little rose-tinted hindsight on this thread.

Yes, in the 1980s, D&D received a lot of public attention, as a fad in certain demographics and as an infamously demonized phenomenon in others. Both of these drove media attention and eventually a spate of licensing (though, at best, it just touched the edges of mainstream). And yes, a lot of people purchased and played the game.

But a lot of people purchase and play the game today. They do it with a lot less media fanfare (though the amount of media coverage in 2004, the 30th anniversary year, was incredible), but they do it in huge numbers.

As I write this, there are 1719 users online on ENworld--1719 people engaged (in a rather hard-core manner) in D&D on a Wednesday morning! More people attend Gen Con every year. RPGA membership continues to rise. Even more importantly, the number of reported RPGA events continues to rise. If I was still at WotC, I'm sure I could cite a dozen other data points. And where they have any comparison to data from the 80s, this data generally shows more D&D going on today than back then.

Is it counter-intuitive, given the fadlike status of D&D back in 1982? Sure. But counter-intuitive doesn't make it false.

This sounds like good data to me. To me what would be interesting information would be the question that gets asked often around here, "What is the demographic of these players?" I wonder if the increase in GenCon and RPGA is the result of an aging demographic that is having more trouble getting together with a regular group of friends at someones home, or a finding a local hobby store for a game. Seeking an outlet for their hobby, they join the RPGA and attend conventions. This could also explain a lack of tie-in products, as older gamers are probably less likely to spend money on these items.

Regardless, the data you have seen seems to indicate the industry is at least alive, if not growing significantly

 

[smerwin29]

I wonder if the increase in GenCon and RPGA is the result of an aging demographic that is having more trouble getting together with a regular group of friends at someones home, or a finding a local hobby store for a game. Seeking an outlet for their hobby, they join the RPGA and attend conventions. This could also explain a lack of tie-in products, as older gamers are probably less likely to spend money on these items.

This would be a common assumption. However, all the reports I have heard say that not just a majority, but a vast majority, of RPGA play is home play.

 

[Doug McCrae]

D&D broke into the mass market a long time ago in the form of crpgs. When I played World of Warcraft for the first time I thought - this is like D&D, but more so. They refined the super-addictive formula of monster bashing, random loot and level upping at the heart of Gygax and Arneson's game while adding beautiful graphics, reducing the prep time to zero and hiding much of the rules complexity.

Those changes are what was required to make the game popular. Predictably some traditional rpgers regard the mass market version as 'not roleplaying', much like music fans who disdain anything that's 'too mainstream' or 'too commercial'.

 

[WhatGravitas]

D&D broke into the mass market a long time ago in the form of crpgs. When I played World of Warcraft for the first time I thought - this is like D&D, but more so. They refined the super-addictive formula of monster bashing, random loot and level upping at the heart of Gygax and Arneson's game while adding beautiful graphics, reducing the prep time to zero and hiding much of the rules complexity.

But then, I ask, why hasn't this helped D&D? During older days? Lack of experience. Lack of knowledge.

But Neverwinter Nights was a huge fumble. See, NWN was what brought me into D&D. And NWN had presence, and was relatively well-known by computer gamers... I think that was a missed opportunity. Some D&D quickstart rules as extra in the box, some D&D ads... and some tie-ins for NWN, that would have helped.

When the next D&D based game comes, WotC shouldn't miss that opportunity - and such a channel is a better way to relate to the computer gamer-crowd, than simply putting out a DI.

Add Adult Swim ads, ads in PC gaming magazines... and D&D would probably fare a bit better.

Cheers, LT.

 

[RFisher]

While I don't ever expect to see D&D for sale at Michaels again, I don't think it is significantly harder to find than in the 1980s. The hardbacks are on the shelves of the mainstream bookstores around here. (Although, I have had trouble finding where the RPG shelf is sometimes.) I've seen a fair number of the Basic Sets. (Though, admittedly, I don't think I've ever seen it at Target.)

I don't buy the reputation arguments. I've not experienced D&D or RPGs or players thereof having any sort of bad rep. (The whole "evil" thing was short-lived & transparently rediculous to the vast majority. If anything, that merely helped increase the game's/hobby's notariety.) And while the "geek is chic" thing may (thankfully) be over, it's aftermath seems to be that the once small "geek is geek" attitude is now only vestigial.

I do buy that advertising could make a difference.

I also suspect that some of the differences between today's Basic Set & the classic Basic Sets--as well as the lack of an Expert Set--makes a difference.