TheCosmicKid
Hero
If you're looking to simulate a 4d6 roll, you want a higher chance of seeing an 18 (and other high rolls). A deck with three 6s has a 1/136 (0.7%) chance of seeing an 18. If you roll 3d6 six times, you have a 2.7% chance of seeing at least one 18. If you're using 4d6k3, it's 9.3%. So you should build the deck weighted more towards the high values. This makes sense if you think about it, because the deck is really representing not eighteen rolls, but the best eighteen rolls out of twenty-four -- and a roll of 6 is always going to be the best, so there should be more of them. Messing with the numbers a bit, it looks like a deck that drops off like:Now, 4d6 drop the lowest has an average value of about 12.24. Multiply by 6 stats and you get about 73.44 points....so if we can squeeze out around ten more points, we should get the same kind of results. So, take that set of cards and replace the 1's with the 3, 4, and 5* of the remaining suit and that gets you pretty close. Again, shuffle and deal them out in groups of three. If you want to be generous, let the player swap one pair of cards after dealing. I've tried it a bunch of times, and with the swap you can almost always get at least one really good score.
* 3, 4, 5 gives you 9 additional points
4, 5, 6 gives you 12
3, 4, 6 gives you 10 spot on, but a higher chance of seeing a "rolled" 18
If you have more than one deck of cards, you can replace them with all 4's or 5's, but you can lose some variety in the scores that way.
6, 6, 6, 6, 5, 5, 5, 5, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1
produces a curve closer to the 4d6k3 curve. (But actually, the odds of an 18 are still too low.)
Last edited: