Why I think D&D is losing market share...

[HeavenShallBurn]

So, basically WoW is an anti-roleplaying game.

In my experience MMORPGs have plenty of MMO and no actual RP in the G.

With the exception of some rare Ultima Online servers and NWN persistent worlds that end up being a lot like a tabletop session via GM oversight.

 

[Treebore]

Ok, colour me intrigued!

1) D&D's market share of what? RPGs? Entertainment products? Everything? Really need this in context!

2) Is it shrinking? I'd be interested to see the source of that premise. Over how long?

I don't know, how long have 3E publishers been talking about shrinking sales? 3 years? 4 years? How often have they said this was "industry wide"? I don't know, but it sure seemed like a lot of times.

Plus in many of the articles WOTC has published about 4E they talk about "re-energizing" the game's popularity and to draw in new players and such. Why would D&D need to be re-energized, etc... unless it was losing something?

As to context, I am talking about increasing its sales, period. What does D&D compete against? I believe the popular perception is it competes against video games and computer games. Probably board games too. Is that factual? I don't know.

 

[DragonLancer]

I voted maybe.

I think you are right about CRPG's and other computer/console games drawing prospective new players away from hobby gaming and RPG's. However, I'm not so sure about the "limited leisure time." If someone wants to play they will, whether that means making sure they get that one night a week/fortnight to do so.
In my gaming group I have players who are married and/or have kids and work hard, but they still make sure that they are available each week for our sunday night game sessions. If someone wants to play they will find the time.

WotC and other games companies need to be dragging these potential players away from their computers to the games table. 4E being geared towards the likes of WoW players is a start (even if some of us dislike the changes made to the system).

 

[Simon Atavax]

Sorta kinda not really.

You allude to what the real problem is (electronic games) but it's only half the story. Sure, ease of use is a factor, but as kids, we drank the 1e rules and read them cover to cover. But I do think that the visual media and ease of use are more appealing to young would-be gamers.

I'm not convinced that kids *today* would/do read 300-page rulebooks cover-to-cover, though. Times have changed. Kids are less literate than when we were youngsters (I was 10 years old in 1980 and read AD&D DMG and PHB cover-to-cover, as you say). Sad but true, I think.

 

[Morrus]

I don't know, how long have 3E publishers been talking about shrinking sales? 3 years? 4 years? How often have they said this was "industry wide"? I don't know, but it sure seemed like a lot of times.

Certainly many third part publishers, sure. And WotC will always see decreasing returns on more and more specialised books (one of the driving forces behind new editions).

Plus in many of the articles WOTC has published about 4E they talk about "re-energizing" the game's popularity and to draw in new players and such. Why would D&D need to be re-energized, etc... unless it was losing something?

Because:

1) It's marketing speak to make 4E sound good.

2) They can always make more money; they'd be running a poor business if they were satisfied with the status quo.

As to context, I am talking about increasing its sales, period. What does D&D compete against? I believe the popular perception is it competes against video games and computer games. Probably board games too. Is that factual? I don't know.

Sure. It competes against anything that uses your "entertainment dollars". That definitely includes video games, as well as things like books, movies, music, nights at the pub, or what-have-you. Then again, if you believe the companies involved, movies and music are in dire straits!

 

[SiderisAnon]

While I recognize the enjoyable intellectual exercise of trying to package D&D into a two-page, ten minute to learn, simple language pamphlet, I personally believe it's mostly a waste of time.

In my mind, the kind of people who are going to be lifetime gamers and who are going to regularly buy the new books and the new miniatures and the new dice -- which is exactly the kind of player you need to keep a market share going -- these are the kind of players who are not going to be drawn in by a ten minute game. There are already plenty of "gateway" games that you can learn quickly to turn you onto the concepts of D&D. Runebound is one. Talisman is probably another. Certainly a number of computer games are.

The kind of people that are lifelong players want the book full of possibilities. They won't want to be limited by the tiny bit you can put into the ten-minute version. (And will probably resent having to go out and spend more money to play the "real" game.)

Now, I'm not opposed to things designed to allow existing players and DM's to easily bring in new players to their group. Maybe a small packet with a sample character, explanation of only those rules you need to run that fighter or whatever, and a few notes on playing. These things should be free downloads. Because other posters are right, most people get into the game because of other people who play.


Now, all that being said, I'm no market analyst and I may be completely wrong. This is just my opinion based on my experience with the kind of people who keep on gaming.



There is one product I would love to see, though I don't know if it's possible. I would love to see really good modules that could be picked up and run with almost no prep time. I have some really great modules from Goodman Games and Monkey God Presents, but I don't always have time to prep them. Heck, I was recently running a Goodman Games one where I was really hoping the party wouldn't get past point X because I hadn't had time to READ past point X yet. *blush* These are rich and detailed modules, but too many important bits are buried in the text and the statistics and abilities of the monsters are too hard to just glance through right before playing them. (However, this is not a failing of either company. I despise the monster block format and have a really, really hard time using it. Something like "Monster Cards" is much easier for me to read, but I certainly don't have time to convert all the non-standard monsters in a module to cards, especially when I don't always have time to read the whole thing.)

Maybe something similar to the "delve format" concepts that WoTC was playing with for a while. (If I'm remembering correctly. Those have a picture of a room, the breif details you need, monster stats, and that's it. It's quick and easy.)

 

[Steel_Wind]

You need to state what D&D is losing market share to.

It's not losing it to another RPG. It's losing it to CRPGs in general - and WoW in particular.

No shame in that. WoW is stealing market share from television, movies, and all other electronic media. Star Wars and Star Trek have trouble competing with WoW - its no shame to say that D&D can't.

It's a structural problem. WoW is 30 seconds away. You do not need to coordinate who goes to who's house, etc. It's there - it's a click and a password away. You do not have to find others to play with in order to try it. Insert disc - click yes. Enter credit card or game card code. Off you go.

WoW is a brilliantly designed game. It really is. Blizzard is the only Quadruple A developer and they didn't just hit WoW out of the park - they put it into orbit. It is the pinnacle of success in modern entertainment across all media.

In terms of gaming, when you get into it actually playing it - WoW has a very heavy social element via Ventrillo. It may not be D&D - but to quote Ryan Dancey - it's "good enough".

Ryan is right. Spot on correct.

The only way that "D&D" competes with that setup is to have a MMO of its own - far better funded and far better designed than Stormreach. Stormreach was self-funded on far too little money. D&D needs a dev budget of 45 -75 million dollars and 4-5 years of patience - and it needs to be developed internally with a PnP product crafted to suit it - not the other way around. I know this is heresy here - but I'm not talking about decisions which are going to make EN worlders happy - I'm talking about a business decision that makes sense and is in the shareholders' best interest.

Which is pretty much besides the point to your post, hence "You're wrong".

PnP cannot ever compete in this environment, unless perhaps the game is dropped off to gamers doors by Eliot Spitzer's preferred casual companions, who will stay an hour or two to close the deal. (Not even WoW can compete with that - in the short term, that is )

D&D is a niche game that will remain a niche game. That does not make it bad; that does not make it defective and it does not make it broken. It makes it what it always was: a geeky fantasy game that over-achieved and deeply affected the mainstream culture around us in many ways - without ever becoming mainstream itself.

Compare PnP D&D to WoW. D&D is at best a complicated sandbox of tools you need to heavily invest in - and which requires others - in order to make that investment.

WoW is, in contrast, a ready made themepark. It has tons of rides to travel to a mouse click away. The qualitative experience of D&D is greatly different for us who have been playing for 30 years. But for noobs?

WoW is close enough. And there isn't anything you can do to change that. At best, you live with it and do what you can - which is what WotC is, in part, now trying to do.

My only complaint with WotC's handling of things is that they have vastly more than enough seed capital within Hasbro to have founded their own electronic game studio by now. There should be 350 computer developers at WotC working on D&D titles for the PC, Consoles and handhelds. WoW is the essence of the genesis behind D&D and its customers are a D&D FRPG MMO's natural fanbase. That's D&D's grass that Activision is cutting to the tune of a billion a year.

The reason those customers are playing WoW and not a MMO developed and created by WotC's own internal developers is, plan and simple, utter, complete and sheer incompetence at the highest levels of management within Hasbro. Full stop.

That incompetence has its genesis in the dot.com boom and bust at Hasbro and the horror that was Hasbro Interactive. Hasbro Interactive didn't just have WotC and Hasbro's own IP. THEY BOUGHT OUT MICROPROSE's IP. Hasbro Interactive was a developer/publisher which had some of the best IP in all of gaming.

And they screwed it up. Not a proud moment in company history - but at least it was an understandable one. Shameful perhaps - but not an inexplicable crime. If it was easy - everybody would do it. So for that - they deserve forgiveness.

Then they did something far worse than screw up as new players on a stage they did not fully understand: they panicked and sold the farm for a song.

The licensing trouble they placed themselves in by selling off Hasbro Interactive to Infogrames continues to echo to this day. They only now appear to be on a plan to get that train back on the tracks. Time will tell if they manage to do so.

 

[ssampier]

I'm not convinced that kids *today* would/do read 300-page rulebooks cover-to-cover, though. Times have changed. Kids are less literate than when we were youngsters (I was 10 years old in 1980 and read AD&D DMG and PHB cover-to-cover, as you say). Sad but true, I think.

I think so too, but I would add everyone is less literate than they used to be (hence the high rates of functional illiteracy). Second, I remember reading an industry insider quote that was all many group activities from tennis to poker were down. People just don't join regular group activities much anymore; too much hassle in scheduling, I guess.

Is D&D doomed? I don't think so, but no doubt it'll change with the times, somehow change to less reliant on a large-ish group and dedicated DM. It won't be the D&D I know and love. I can only hope these trends are ebb-and-flow, rather than permanent.

Myself, I am on sabbatical for D&D. My group was getting too power and rules-heavy for me. They can play anyway they want; I don't have the patience to explain why such-and-such would not work.

 

[Ranger REG]

I don't know, how long have 3E publishers been talking about shrinking sales? 3 years? 4 years? How often have they said this was "industry wide"? I don't know, but it sure seemed like a lot of times.

Because people ask.

If you're to ask the produce industry, they'll say the same with regards to the current economy, which is pretty much repeated in the news.

Plus in many of the articles WOTC has published about 4E they talk about "re-energizing" the game's popularity and to draw in new players and such. Why would D&D need to be re-energized, etc... unless it was losing something?

Basically it is trying to draw attention to them, especially when you're more concerned about spending on neccessities (like gas and food) than on leisure.

As to context, I am talking about increasing its sales, period. What does D&D compete against? I believe the popular perception is it competes against video games and computer games. Probably board games too. Is that factual? I don't know.

Yeah, in addition to the RPG market, they also have to compete in the hobby market and the much bigger leisure items market.

 

[Steel_Wind]

Basically it is trying to draw attention to them, especially when you're more concerned about spending on neccessities (like gas and food) than on leisure.

Reg, the market data does not bear this out. I'm sorry - but you got it wrong here. The NPD sales data for February was released last week.

February's software game sales were 40% ahead of last years, and higher than any other November/December month in history. It is an unprecedented level of success - and takes place at a time of shortages of hardware for both the Wii and the 360 - and without any major game release to drive them, either.

April and GTA IV? It will be even higher.

Same thing with hardware - excepting last years September uptick due to Halo3 purchases of the 360, Hardware sales for all console platforms are higher this Feb than any other non-November/December month EVER.

If computer and video game leisure spending is demonstrably recession proof - then so is gaming. It has no measurable market effect. And by no - I mean "zero."

I'm not suggesting there may not be some individuals who are taking a beating, but the leisure market as a whole is as sound as it has ever been. By any measure, it is recession proof.