D&D 3.x Will 3.5 hurt sales for 4E?

[Drowbane]

...."It looks interesting, but I'm gonna wait until 2011-2012 when they come out with 4.5 before I switch."

Is this a sentiment only amongst the players I know? Anyone else going to put off picking up 4E because of concern that a 4.5 will be along soon?

Such is a mild concern here. My initial thought is also to hold off and just use the 4e PHB (I don't really need a MM while DMing these days... prep is a pain in the rear and its just too easy to "fake it") and perhaps the DMG.

...but if 4e is sufficiently rockin... I'll buy into it anyways.

 

[GVDammerung]

I've been chatting with my regular gaming buddies about 4E coming up, and while most of us are taking the "wait and see" approach, I keep hearing one comment crop up again and again (paraphrased):

"It looks interesting, but I'm gonna wait until 2011-2012 when they come out with 4.5 before I switch."

Is this a sentiment only amongst the players I know? Anyone else going to put off picking up 4E because of concern that a 4.5 will be along soon?

Wotc made a Faustian bargin when they released 3.5E so soon after 3.0 and now 4.0 so soon after 3.5. They got a cash infusion but they demonstrated that there is very little barrier to releasing editions in fairly quick succession. Gamers for the most part went along and Wotc is clearly betting they will go along again when 4.0 is released. Given this success and likely future success (gamers going along), why wouldn't Wotc release 4.5 (or whatever they would choose to call it) in 4 to 6 years after 4.0? What logic would advise against this that didn't apply to 3.5 or 4.0?

Bet. 4.5 (or whatever they choose to call it) is already scheduled (not begun, just scheduled) and that schedule will see it arrive in less time than the move from 3.0 to 4.0. Wotc is a business and it wants maximum cash as regularly as it can get it. Given the 3.0/3.5/4.0 history and this maxum, it doesn't take a great stretch to understand that 4.5 (or whatever they choose to call it) will be along and comparatively shortly.

Wotc will make all the aguments why this is a Good Thing and why you should not wait but rush right out and adopt 4.0. It is the RPG publishing treadmill model turned up all the way. And if 4.0 suits you, you don't mind that all 3x rules material you own is substantially invalidated and your wallet can handle the 4.0 load, Wotc's strategy will be great fot you. If any of the above three factors fails, you may not be quick to adopt 4.0, if at all. Therein, Wotc has gone "all in" with its release of 4.0. Time will tell if they take the pot or bust.

Ironically, if Wotc's bet on 4.0 does bust, it will only mean they will release another new edition that much sooner. So either way, gamers are getting another new edition after 4.0 in pretty quick time.

 

[BryonD]

I don't think 3.5 will hurt 4E all that much.

However, I also don't think the market is in nearly as receptive a position as it was when 3E came out. When 3E came out there were a lot of people hungry for a new game and ready to start or return to D&D. A significant portion of that was former editions players who had come to dislike them (mainly 2e) and were very happy to find new life. Now I think that the people who have drifted out are more people who have simply gotten their gaming fix and aren't eager to get back in at all right now, regardless of system.

I'm sure there are a lot of exceptions. And I'd wager the majority of people bothering to read this post on ENWorld are exceptions. But I think 3E created a kind of buzz that was able to expand the market beyond its normal, sustainable level. I don't see that happening again.

I'm pretty up about it and hope it does awesome. And I bet it does breath a clear new life into gaming for a while. But it won't be a repeat of the 3E boom.

Or else I am wrong.

 

[cthulhu_duck]

WoTC have repeatedly stated that there will not be a 4.5.

No... but they have stated something about a PHB2, DMG2 and MM2 coming out a year after the PHB, DMG and MM.

If we assume an annual cycle of new books (so 2010 would see PHB3, DMG3, and MM3 for 4E), then some may view PHB2/DMG2/MM2 as 4.1, and the year after PHB3/DMG3/MM3 as 4.2 ...

And so on until PHB6/DMG6/MM6 might be considered to be 4.5 in 2013.

(And what current employees state is no guarantee of WOTC's future plans)

 

[BryonD]

I've been chatting with my regular gaming buddies about 4E coming up, and while most of us are taking the "wait and see" approach, I keep hearing one comment crop up again and again (paraphrased):

"It looks interesting, but I'm gonna wait until 2011-2012 when they come out with 4.5 before I switch."

Is this a sentiment only amongst the players I know? Anyone else going to put off picking up 4E because of concern that a 4.5 will be along soon?

As for me, I'll eagerly buy 4E if it continues to create the positive impressions on me that the limited previews so far have. And I'll be happy to lay my cash down for it.

And if come 2011 they have a chance to take 3+ years of experience and even more improve the system, I'll happily pay again.

As long as they can keep making it better, I'll keep paying. Happily.

 

[Gargoyle]

I think 3.5 gives people who don't like the new edition, or who just don't like change, a bit of justification for not buying. So yeah, it has an impact on 4e sales.

Does that make 3.5 a mistake? Maybe. I always felt they should have done more with 3.5 than they did, particularly with the spell system, but there are those with equally valuable opinions who believe they shouldn't have done more than apply errata with that update. I don't think it could have pleased everyone, and neither will 4e.

I do think they learned a lot when doing 3.5, as far as examining what could be improved in the future, and that 4e will be better for that experience. So in the respect 4e will be better because of 3.5, I'd have to guess that 3.5's overall impact on 4e sales may be positive, despite the negative aspect of buyer wariness of a possible 4.5.

 

[DaveMage]

(And what current employees state is no guarantee of WOTC's future plans)

That's the kicker....

Who knows who will be running things in 3-4 years? The lineup could be very different. All the people communicating about 4e today could very well be gone.

In 2000, we had no idea that Sean K Reynolds, Monte Cook, Skip Williams, Ryan Dancey, Peter Adkison, Anthony Valterra, Chris Pramas, Dale Donovan, JD Wiker, Roger Moore, and others would all be gone so soon.

That's why it doesn't really matter what's said about the future.

 

[Dykstrav]

However, I also don't think the market is in nearly as receptive a position as it was when 3E came out. When 3E came out there were a lot of people hungry for a new game and ready to start or return to D&D. A significant portion of that was former editions players who had come to dislike them (mainly 2e) and were very happy to find new life. Now I think that the people who have drifted out are more people who have simply gotten their gaming fix and aren't eager to get back in at all right now, regardless of system.

Another factor that I think had a big impact on 3E's initial release was the biggest fantasy movie series coming out conveniently soon after the new edition. After every Lord of the Rings movie came out, I noticed an infusion of new and returning players. In the back of my mind, I wanna say that this probably had something to do with 3E's early success. There certainly were a glut of elf archer and human ranger builds circa 2002-2003.

 

[Khairn]

I must say I'd trust WotC without the fact they switched to 3.5 after 3 years, and always denied they were working on 4E "for the sake of business".

Lol, that one is wonderful ...

For the sake "of my wallet and my nerves", I'd answer, I won't trust or buy anything from you regardless.

I'm happy my gaming group agrees with me, if not totally upon the trust statements, surely upon the money expenditure statements.

Many of us believe (rightly or wrongly) that the reason behind the release of 3.5 came primarily from the need to sell more books, rather than because the problems with 3E demanded a new set of core rules.

Because of that I believe that there won't be a specific "4.5", because it would be similar to committing marketing suicide. But that doesn't mean that WotC won't be pushing the need for everyone to buy more core books. Just take a look at the new "core" books announced to be published each year. It's not "4.5" per se, but it is a new set of core books each year, which should have a similar impact on WotC's bottom line.

As for the OP, I'm not certain if its specifically the 3.5 system, or the lack of faith in WotC that will have the biggest impact on 4E sales, but I do believe that there won't be as many existing RPG gamers jumping immediately to 4E as there were AD&D players who jumped when 3E came out. I think more players are going to have a "wait and see" attitude.

Which is why I think that WotC's focus on attracting the MMORPG crowd and grab gamers from outside standard RPG circles is a good move for them.

 

[Moggthegob]

Very true. I got a fair number of people wanting to play pippin and Legolas and thats essentially how we got our high school group going aside from me and the others who played already