Will sales of Arcane Power prove WotC right?

[Derren]

Considering that according to Amazon Arcane Power is not outselling the easily pirated PHB 2 I say no.

 

[WalterKovacs]

Considering that according to Amazon Arcane Power is not outselling the easily pirated PHB 2 I say no.

Considering that no one expected Arcane Power to outsell PHB 2, I'd say that it isn't a fair comparison.

2 classes from the book are from PHB1, 2 are from PHB2, and 1 is from Forgotten Realms Player's Guide, not to mention the races supported are from all three books. Since, any of the X-Power books contain no information on how to actually play the class (no HP, skills, proficiencies, etc) it should never outsell the player's handbooks. Hypothetically, it's possible there were more people interested in upping the power level of their wizard than there were interested in any class or race from PHBII, but that would be an out there assumption.

Simply 8 new classes and feats for all characters should outsell 5 additions to existing classes and feats for arcane characters only.

 

[Mistwell]

For those quick to answer no - ask yourself if there is any reasonable level of evidence you would accept at this point that would convince you your answer was wrong?

If it sells more than martial powers, will you just offer additional reasons why that would be the case, rather than accepting that as evidence of stronger sales?

If it sells far more than WOTC expected, will you just offer additional reasons why that would be the case (from "WOTC is misrepresenting it by manipulating print runs" to outright "they are lying - I mean, we have no reason to accept their statement at face value")?

Seriously, I think for some folks, the issue has gotten to the point where there is no possible result other than the one you have pre-judged, and if any evidence comes out to the contrary you will view it as your duty to refute it rather than even contemplating accepting it.

 

[Voadam]

For those quick to answer no - ask yourself if there is any reasonable level of evidence you would accept at this point that would convince you your answer was wrong?

If it sells more than martial powers, will you just offer additional reasons why that would be the case, rather than accepting that as evidence of stronger sales?

If it sells far more than WOTC expected, will you just offer additional reasons why that would be the case (from "WOTC is misrepresenting it by manipulating print runs" to outright "they are lying - I mean, we have no reason to accept their statement at face value")?

Seriously, I think for some folks, the issue has gotten to the point where there is no possible result other than the one you have pre-judged, and if any evidence comes out to the contrary you will view it as your duty to refute it rather than even contemplating accepting it.

A more neutral way to phrase it, what proof would show that WotC's decision to pull pdf sales benefited WotC?

I think to show it we'd have to compare how much WotC was making from pdf sales, how much they were making from comparable current release stuff when there was pirating, and compare it to sales for current release stuff when the pdf sales are not there. Martial Power with pdf and Arcane Power without pdf seem the closest we could expect for comparables.

I don't expect to see numbers though so I don't believe there is really a way to be shown, which leaves answering the question to pretty much gut feelings and preconceived notions based on analogies and understanding of the situation (pulling pdfs was a bad move, or WotC knows what it is doing and acted to maximize its own profit).

So I go with my preconceived notion that pdf sales do not detriment an RPG company and that piracy or lack of easy new piracy will have minimal or zero impacts on WotC book sales one way or the other (sorry I don't have the link on hand to the 2004 harvard study on pirated music impacts on CD album sales that concluded a zero/insignificant impact).

 

[Bumbles]

The problem with all those studies though, is that they're based on statistics, which is the third kind of lie.

I think, though, I'd look at the situation this way:

Does Wizards know how much money they made (or even lost!) from PDF sales? Probably, though their internal accounting numbers are not something we're going to see, so we can't see whether or not we should think "all right, I guess I can see why it was worth doing to them" .

Any other benefits? Well, the PDFs will still be out there sooner or later, so if Piracy does indeed serve in some way to increase sales, they get the benefit without having to worry about the infrastructure. Is it truly a loss for them? I don't know. At the least, it is publicity.

Personally though, I think the only real information we're going to get is going to come from the lawsuit, though even then I'm not sure.

 

[Brown Jenkin]

For those quick to answer no - ask yourself if there is any reasonable level of evidence you would accept at this point that would convince you your answer was wrong?

If it sells more than martial powers, will you just offer additional reasons why that would be the case, rather than accepting that as evidence of stronger sales?

If it sells far more than WOTC expected, will you just offer additional reasons why that would be the case (from "WOTC is misrepresenting it by manipulating print runs" to outright "they are lying - I mean, we have no reason to accept their statement at face value")?

Seriously, I think for some folks, the issue has gotten to the point where there is no possible result other than the one you have pre-judged, and if any evidence comes out to the contrary you will view it as your duty to refute it rather than even contemplating accepting it.

That is getting close to saying that if you believe WotC has done anything wrong then you are a 4e hater. If you believe that Arcane Powers sales will benefit because of this that is fine, argue your point. But replies like that one don't help anything but to inflame the edition wars further.

 

[w_earle_wheeler]

FWIW, my questions about the sales of Arcane Power have nothing to do with the "edition of rules" and everything to do with the marketing of the edition.

The game itself is quite solid. The marketing of the game, especially in comparison to the marketing of third edition, has been weak from the beginning.

 

[Mistwell]

That is getting close to saying that if you believe WotC has done anything wrong then you are a 4e hater.

Well, I didn't say that. I said I think for some people they have pre-judged it and feel it is their duty to refute anything that runs contrary to their pre-judgement. That's nothing close to "WOTC has done anything wrong", nor is it an accusation of hate for anything.

Are you saying there are not a number of people here who have prejudged it? Are you saying there are not a number of people here who do not appear likely to be willing to consider evidence to the contrary of the pre-judgement?

If you believe that Arcane Powers sales will benefit because of this that is fine, argue your point. But replies like that one don't help anything but to inflame the edition wars further.

I don't know if it will sell better. I'm not taking sides on that issue...the evidence will either show better sales, not show it, or more likely there will be no evidence.

All I am saying is that I think it's unproductive to prejudge the issue so much that there would be no evidence possible to convince a person otherwise. That attitude I think is what inflames edition wars worse than anything else - telling people you have judged the issue, and nothing can budge your judgment even if the facts turn out to be different than your assumptions.

How can we hope to discuss issues if people go in with a closed mind and are not even willing to consider contrary evidence? And how can we even begin to deal with that problem if, every time someone mentions the problem (like I did) they get chastised for "inflaming the edition wars"? Like pretending it's not an issue will make the edition wars better?

 

[Gilwen]

I don't think any one title will prove it either way. whether they will benefit from pulling pdf's is something they will be determined over the course of time not the success or failure of a single title.

gil

 

[baphomet68]

No amount of discussion can change a persons mind. Its the wrong tool for the job. We participate because articulating our opinion helps bring our beliefs into clearer focus, and to understand better the dissenting view. I dont think anyone participates because they are looking to rewrite their judgements. All we can do is discriminate; If relying on ones own judgement in the face of disagreement is prejudice, than prejudice is human nature. {conclusion = opinion followed by rationalization: I assert therefore I rationalize my assertion} No mans argument can stand in place of anothers experience; sounds like you suggest that if only I understood the problem like you do, I would have to agree.
I see Mistwells' description of prejudgement as applicable to both sides of this debate; those that stridently defend WOTC are in no danger of changing their opinion or withdrawing that support simply because they read something expressing a contrary view.
All that being said: I will point to the lack of a legal PDF, and the availability of the Pirate copy, as evidence that proves WOTC wrong. Their failure to provide an electronic alternative to the pulled PDF shows their actions as knee-jerk emotionalism, not cool, reasoned business strategy. I expect that WOTC will issue some statement declaring unmitigated success for their new AP product. I will be constitutionally unable to beleive them.
That being said, both sides in this debate benefit by the dialog- all are forced to explore and define their stance. But with so few actual facts, we have a topic that gets decided by emotions.