What do you think? Is crunch coming back? And is that desirable, in your opinion?
It think you seem to be defining "the industry" as everything other than D&D, which is still actually most of the market, and is/has been what most would call a "medium" crunch game for a decade and more.
In addition to what Morrus points out, I think tabletop RPGs don't go so much for heavy crunch any more for some good reasons:
For one thing, other forms of game do heavy-crunch better than ttrpgs have ever done it.
In addition, really solid engagement with heavy-crunch rules tends to take up brainspace, to the point of pushing out the other things that ttrpgs are better at. If we are spending 20 minutes working out the crunch of a round of action declaration, the other elements of role-playing have been set aside for long enough that we lose context and attention for them. Heavy-crunch RPGs, then, become an exercise at context-switching, which humans are much, much less good at than we often claim to be.
These combined leads to the question - why, exactly, are we using an ttrpg for our heavy-crunch goodness? Maybe we should go to other types of games for that joy.
There are many very complex boardgames, for example, that still manage to contain their rules in dozens rather than hundreds of pages. Of course TTRPGs aren't board games
Specifically, board games have vastly smaller decisions spaces for their players. Yes, the rules for Monopoly will fit inside the box top, but the number of things the player can choose to do is small.