Ron said:
Although I cannot say for your particular case, many posters tend to view opinion polls in boards such as EN World as representative of the opinion of gamers in general. This is a fallacy.
Trust me, I don't take opinion polls on boards like EN World as representative of anything - even EN World itself.
Ron said:
Wizards' survey, despite being old, is probably their best map of the true preferencies among their customers. I doubt it has changed significantly in the last eight years.
Eight years ago, Harry Potter was a relatively new phenomena. Eight years ago, Final Fantasy 7 had only two years before busted console RPGs out of niche genre status outside Japan and made them a major, if not THE major, determinant of console sales. Eight years ago, the Lord of the Rings movies had not even begun principle production. Eight years ago, Everquest had just come out to rave reviews and World of Warcraft was hardly a glimmer in Blizzard's eye. Eight years ago, the Matrix was brand new, and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon had yet to introduce the wider moviegoing audience to its wuxia roots.
The fantasy genre has changed in the past ten years in a way it hasn't since the initial release and popularity of D&D - if not since Tolkien wrote The Hobbit and The Lord of the Rings.
Whether the spell system issue has changed or not, never in D&D's history has the been a time when the average person's view of fantasy, and the prospective young player's view of fantasy, has changed so much.
Ron said:
If I recall correctly, the survey showed most players are lost after a few years dabbling with D&D and thus you should not expect them to be exposed to a diversity of alternative magic system.
Assuming this is correct (it's been a while since I saw excerps from the survey), then it's even less relevant what the existing playerbase thinks of a system. New players, who would be the most important, will have either nopreconceived notions of a magic system or preconceived notions of a magic system derived primarily from works that didn't even exist when D&D 3e hit the market.
Ron said:
Pseudo-Vancian magic is dead simple and thus help new and occasional players to enjoy D&D. I would say that the great advantage D&D has over most other systems is the easiness of creating a character even without mastering the rules -- an advantage that, in my opinion, was partially lost with the more complicated rules introduced with d20. To add something such as power points, that requires more complex bookkeeping, or effect based magic, as seem in Hero, would likely turn the game less attractive to newbies gamers.
Effects-based magic isn't simple, I agree. Though I love it so, it's totally inappropriate for D&D.
Encounter-based but still slot-based magic systems (ala Book of Nine Swords or, from the looks of it, Star Wars Saga) are about the same level of complexity as Vancian per day casting, simply changing per day for per encounter or giving a simple refresh method.
The warlock fire-and-fire-again system is much, MUCH simpler than Vancian magic. Pick your spells and use them forever.
Spell points are hit points for the mind - simpler, IMO, and at the very least no more complex. In any case, they are much, MUCH more familiar to the vast majority of new players; if new players are indeed the lifeblood of the hobby, then spell points are only logical.