Will this Lead to a TPK? [updated 3/16]

[bento]

I decided to kick off my second series of adventures with an exciting challenge for my players: a fight with a dragon!

My players characters are mostly 7th level:
Human Rgr 5/ Master of many shapes 2 (using UA Ranger Variant)
Human Fighter 7
Half-Ogre Rgr 2 / Fighter 2
Human Sorcerer 6
Elf Rogue 2 / Cleric 4

The dragon in question is an adult blue (CR 14). To even the odds, I'm introducing this plot through a sand giant (CR 10) and armand (CR 3) who have vowed revenge on the dragon for destroying the caravan they were protecting. The sand giant and armand are asking the heroes to help lay a trap by playing "bait" and assisting with the fighting. The players will also be running the sand giant and armand.

At the end of the last session the players had just met the sand giant and the armand, who have told them just a little about the dragon, but no details on size. As it stands my players are busy strategizing on which spells and tactics to use against the dragon.

They are really good with battle tactics, only once getting close to a TPK when they met up with a mummy (they lack power against comparable undead).

In your estimation and experience, do they have good odds of succeeding? Have I given them enough fire power to take this challenge on, or will the dragon stomp them into the dust? I'm also thinking about the giant providing them with some scrolls and "gently used" magical devices for the battle.

Am I expecting too much from my players?

UPDATED - SEE POST #54

 

[Doug McCrae]

Sounds tough. Is it outdoors or indoors? Dragons are murderous outdoors. The other key factor will be the amount of protection from energy the PCs have.

EDIT: I had a look at an adult blue's stats. Definite TPK. 241hp, AC 28 (the party will be hitting about 25% of the time?), +27 to hit, 12d8 breath weapon, SR 21 (the casters also have about a 25% chance of getting through). Most amusingly of all, the half-ogre with only 4 HD can be panicked by the frightful presence. The rest of the party will probably have another -2 to hit from being shaken.

 

[BlueBlackRed]

From just the information you've given, it's going to be a tough fight no matter what.

The group's EL with the help of the giant will be 12, vs. a CR14 it's going to be a nasty fight, even if you help out the party with favorable conditions (indoors, poor spell choices for the dragon, no minions, etc.).

 

[bento]

Its going to be outdoors - they are in the middle of the desert.

One of my players has the DDM Desert of Desolation promotion map, which, while outdoors, has all sorts of stone ruins strewn about. Of course the dragon could easily leap over the stones and get to them, but it would make it harder to get a clear shot in.

They have a couple "Resist Energy" scrolls. In the magic haul the sand giant owns I'm thinking about putting a few scrolls of "Owl's Wisdom" to boost their Will save against the dragon's fear affects.

 

[Wandering Star]

I think dragons seem to be designed to be slightly more powerful then their challenge ratings would suggest. I cant back that up, but as far as I've seen, dragons, even at even challenge ratings to PCs often present a very difficult challenge. This would make sense, as dragons are iconic, and often the highlight and awe inspiring climax of any game.

I seriously think that you should expect to run a high risk of losing at least a couple of the PCs, and there is likely also a substantial risk of a TPK. Of course, this depends largely on your style of play. Ive been in situations before where I have been over enthusiastic with a creature I really wanted to be impressive, and therefore made it several CR ranks too high... and have had to discreetly fudge out of guilt as the characters stare a TPK in the eye. I personally hate doing this, and it leaves a bad taste in my mouth. If you are comfortable with fudging things to keep the story running, it may be a totally different story.

I've found that since I started 'assessing' battles with a critical eye, I make far less mistakes on picking creatures too hard for PCs. I would certainly recommend it. Simply have a look at the attack bonuses of the characters, and compare it with the Dragon's AC, and see how likely they are to hit. Do the same with saves, and then look at it from the other side, see how likely the dragon is to hit, and how much damage the dragon will do, MAX and AVERAGE. Keep in mind that this will only give you a rough idea, as you know, the dice will do anything but what you hoped on the night.

I would also suggest maybe running an optional side quest for the characters, they learn how hard the dragon is going to be, and find that there are certain vulnerabilities this dragon has, and then the PCs can set off on a sub quest to discover items that will help them greatly.

Considering that you were hoping to use this battle as an opener for your second run, however, it might also be a good idea to have the characters become involved with a fly-by or skirmish with the dragon for some reason or another, where the dragon sprays them with his/her breath, attacks for a few rounds out of sheer mockery, and the characters need to escape - still an exciting battle, and I can assure you in a strictly rules - oriented match, a very deadly challenge still. They should then quickly learn for themselves how necessary it will be to stock up on anti - blue supplies.

 

[Greylock]

Extra magic is going to be essential. There's not much spell slinging power in the party to be taking on an Adult Blue.

 

[bento]

I'm really envisioning this dragon to be like a train robber. He shows up - tells everyone to put their hands up, give him no trouble, then he takes what he wants (camels & some treasure) and then he goes on his merry way. It's when a passenger tries to go for their gun that he resorts to violence.

He understands that killing everyone that comes in his territory is bad for business. He's just collecting his cut.

 

[frankthedm]

Am I expecting too much from my players?

i kinda think so. More that any victory they have, will be more due to the giant than their own efforts. Thankfully they are running the giant so it won't have the full DM-PC feel to it, but when it comes down to it, the PCs will be followers / fodder.

if the dragon has the Snatch feat, the medium PCs will die one by one, picked off, then carried off by Blue Boy.

 

[AnonymousOne]

I'm seeing TPK plastered all over this one...

 

[Derro]

Statistically the odds are actually in the party's favor with the inclusion of the sand giant. But statistics don't mean squat when a huge, flying lizard is strafing your party with lightning every 6 to 24 seconds. Your party is severely lacking in both arcane blasting power and healing on any meaningful scale. That would be less of a problem if the battle were indoors and they could keep the big bugger grounded. At least then the melee might of the sand giant, fighter, and half-ogre would get some play.

No reasonable amount of free spell power will even these odds. Owl's wisdom provides a scant +2 Will save bonus. With a frightful presence DC of 23 even your high will savers (Sorcerer and Cleric) fail over half the time.

Without unbelievable luck and tactics to rival Sun-Tzu I'd say it's probably all ash and ozone for this lot. That being said don't be afraid to run the encounter. Have the dragon destroy the NPCs, severely wound one or two PCs and then make the rest his indentured servants. Well, that's what I would do.

If it's just a fight you are looking for I'd take Big Blue out of the picture. Perhaps the party could make their way into his territory and battle it out with some spawn. Blues are very crafty and would not have an easily accessible or even findable lair. The party could wander around forever in the desert trying to figure out where he is.

It was stated above and I agree 100%. Dragons are tougher than their CR would lead you to believe. The gestalt of their abilities and just the simple potency of the dragon type (HD, BAB, and Saves all at maximum) means they are, in my experience, about 20% more potent than CR indicates.

Do your peeps a favor. Half dragon up a half dozen gynosphinxes (or whatever, it's the only CR 8 in a desert that isn't undead or already a dragon). Good fight, less PC death. More smiling, less crying.