Even self-proclaimed “Futurists” and science fiction authors have weak track records in forecasting the future, and I’m neither! In this concluding part, I discuss trends in actual play, and in the economics of RPG publishing.
Something I can’t judge is the length of RPG sessions. I’d have said average length was 4-6 hours, but I see so many playing just 2-4 hours that I wonder if the games are affected by a perceived need to do so many other leisure activities, that is, “lack of time”. I also wonder what the proportion of one-session-and-done adventures is, compared to the proportion that continue to the next session. I’d expect more of the former if I didn’t also think the sessions are getting shorter.
Are tabletop games getting shorter? As CRPGs and other media compete for their time, there's less time for everything else. In this hectic world, we could make a case that modern “short-termism” has affected tabletop RPGs; if so, that effect will only become more pronounced. Is there a movement in RPG fandom to make the games simpler and less time-consuming? And how much are CRPGs less time-consuming, in the sense that you can play for 15 minutes, an hour, whatever time you have, then leave it til later to continue? CRPGs are in one sense simpler, too, because you don’t have to keep records, keep track of things.
Between capitalism, crowdsourcing, and saturation of the market, we're not going to see a return to those halcyon days when a typical print supplement by a third party not specializing in RPGs might sell 11,000 copies. The biggest companies can prosper in the current climate but it's extremely hard for little companies to make a living. Yes, a small company can sell 500 or even 1,000 copies of something, but that's not enough to make a living. People can do these kinds of things as a hobby but having to earn a living another way (games just a hobby) takes an enormous amount of time and energy.
The rare full-time RPG professionals have a hard time making ends meet, and that’s surely going to continue. See Owen K. C. Stephens’ tweets as compiled by Morrus. Freelancing by “creatives” in all disciplines has been hard hit in this century, in part because there are so many people willing to produce creative material for free (and post it on the Internet), in part because of competition from PDFs sold directly to gamers.
RPG material has become such a commodity that it is now "work for hire", that is, the freelance author receives a lump sum (rather than royalties) whether the product sells poorly or well. This is anathema to many creative people (including me, it’s why I stopped writing for Dragon and White Dwarf magazines long ago). Nor do full-time employees of a publisher receive royalties.
What will the future hold? We can hope that even as the economics have changed, creatives will find a way through other avenues (Kickstarter, Patreon, DriveThruRPG, etc.) to keep the hobby alive. Certainly, with the pandemic and more people staying at home, RPGs have a golden opportunity. But can they take advantage of it? We'll find out in 2021.
Your Turn: What do you think is going to happen to tabletop RPGs in the future?
Actual Play?
What about trends in actual play? Surely, aspects of computer role-playing games (CRPGs) will continue to influence tabletop play as their popularity and reach are massive. Many of these arise from the zeitgeist, ranging from fast level rise, to ever-present “loot drops.” In my experience of two large university game clubs and the sixth largest community college in the country, those who come to such tabletop game clubs spend more time altogether playing video games than tabletop games. (Yes, I formally polled the university groups.)Something I can’t judge is the length of RPG sessions. I’d have said average length was 4-6 hours, but I see so many playing just 2-4 hours that I wonder if the games are affected by a perceived need to do so many other leisure activities, that is, “lack of time”. I also wonder what the proportion of one-session-and-done adventures is, compared to the proportion that continue to the next session. I’d expect more of the former if I didn’t also think the sessions are getting shorter.
Are tabletop games getting shorter? As CRPGs and other media compete for their time, there's less time for everything else. In this hectic world, we could make a case that modern “short-termism” has affected tabletop RPGs; if so, that effect will only become more pronounced. Is there a movement in RPG fandom to make the games simpler and less time-consuming? And how much are CRPGs less time-consuming, in the sense that you can play for 15 minutes, an hour, whatever time you have, then leave it til later to continue? CRPGs are in one sense simpler, too, because you don’t have to keep records, keep track of things.
The Economics
Unfortunately, RPGs tend to be "prisoners of capitalism,” so we more or less inevitably get more and more rules until a game becomes so complex that it starts to collapse under its own weight, and we move on to a new edition. The publisher of D&D is fighting this trend, but how long will that continue?Between capitalism, crowdsourcing, and saturation of the market, we're not going to see a return to those halcyon days when a typical print supplement by a third party not specializing in RPGs might sell 11,000 copies. The biggest companies can prosper in the current climate but it's extremely hard for little companies to make a living. Yes, a small company can sell 500 or even 1,000 copies of something, but that's not enough to make a living. People can do these kinds of things as a hobby but having to earn a living another way (games just a hobby) takes an enormous amount of time and energy.
The rare full-time RPG professionals have a hard time making ends meet, and that’s surely going to continue. See Owen K. C. Stephens’ tweets as compiled by Morrus. Freelancing by “creatives” in all disciplines has been hard hit in this century, in part because there are so many people willing to produce creative material for free (and post it on the Internet), in part because of competition from PDFs sold directly to gamers.
RPG material has become such a commodity that it is now "work for hire", that is, the freelance author receives a lump sum (rather than royalties) whether the product sells poorly or well. This is anathema to many creative people (including me, it’s why I stopped writing for Dragon and White Dwarf magazines long ago). Nor do full-time employees of a publisher receive royalties.
What will the future hold? We can hope that even as the economics have changed, creatives will find a way through other avenues (Kickstarter, Patreon, DriveThruRPG, etc.) to keep the hobby alive. Certainly, with the pandemic and more people staying at home, RPGs have a golden opportunity. But can they take advantage of it? We'll find out in 2021.
Your Turn: What do you think is going to happen to tabletop RPGs in the future?
