WotC Replies: Statements by WotC employees regarding Dragon/Dungeon going online

[Ourph]

Ive provided quite a few numbers actually.

The 5,000,000 gamers, 50,000 subscribers number was provided by me, from Paizo's website.

As was the number of internet users in the three Asian countries Russia, China and India, 200 million, about the population of the entire USA.

I don't have all the answers and have been pretty clear I think, that I am offering opinions. But I've actually provided more numbers than a lot of posters in these threads to back up WHY I have those opinions.

So what other numbers do you think I should be providing? I've given numbers to back up exactly why I think this move will reach MANY more potential gamers than Dungeon did and thus why I think it's a great idea.

None of those numbers really support the prediction you are making though. You said...

A certain percentage of gamers will be drawn to P&P RPGs. They will like the ultimate customizability, the ability to tell a story, their OWN story, etc.

You are predicting that a certain percentage of MMO gamers will be drawn to P&P RPGs. This is true. 0% is "a certain percentage", so there is literally no way to argue with this statement. However, I'm assuming when you said "a certain percentage" you meant "a certain non-zero percentage" so I'm wondering if you have any information indicating this is true and what that percentage might be. You also seem to be predicting that, of that certain non-zero percentage sub-group that will be drawn to P&P RPGs, some non-zero percentage will be interested in the type of content to be found in Dungeon and Dragon magazines and that some non-zero percentage of that subgroup will enjoy getting that content online. I'm also wondering if you have any information suggesting that will be true or whether it is all personal conjecture.

 

[Vigilance]

NO ! SORRY !
I could have listened to something more detailed. I am an adult.

You are? The guy yelling "dead, dead, dead" wants me know he's an adult? Huh. Thanks for that. Cause I really wouldn't have noticed through all the noise.

Why should it be any less viable ? Because you believe online services are reliable at all ? Can you cite ANY really reliable online service ?

By viable, I was speaking about potential market penetration.

Given the expense of international shipping, I think the web is the best way to reach the international market, which is huge. Much larger (by population), than the US market.

Russia, China and India have an internet user base almost the size of the entire US population.

Over time, internet access is going to grow.

Similarly, reading online will become a more pleasant experience over time, as monitors and PDF software continue to improve.

By contrast, printing and shipping magazines internationally is something unlikely to get substantially cheaper, or faster, than it is today.

Therefor, in my opinion, web delivery of magazine like material will get more viable over time and has a much larger market it can reach.

Even if I bought your service argument, how about EASE OF USE ?

Online reading is pretty easy to use for me. I have a laptop with WiFi and use it when I run my weekly game already.

And of course, web content will be easier to use tomorrow than it is today, and easier to use the day after tomorrow than it will be tomorrow, etc.

Prices come down all the time on laptops, more WiFi hotspots spring up every day in universities, coffee shops and bookstores, improving web access and technology gets more reliable.

This is an ENTERTAINMENT industry

When it's not fun any longer, it's DEAD ! Dead, dead, dead.

And it's been WAY too long since I had fun with new WOTC products.

Well if that's the case, then your problems run way deeper than them putting some magazines online.

Maybe you should go to the park, get some fresh air, or buy a new game or something.

Sounds like it might be time to take a break.

For me, I think the DI has a lot of potential.

 

[Vigilance]

You are predicting that a certain percentage of MMO gamers will be drawn to P&P RPGs. This is true. 0% is "a certain percentage", so there is literally no way to argue with this statement. However, I'm assuming when you said "a certain percentage" you meant "a certain non-zero percentage" so I'm wondering if you have any information indicating this is true and what that percentage might be. You also seem to be predicting that, of that certain non-zero percentage sub-group that will be drawn to P&P RPGs, some non-zero percentage will be interested in the type of content to be found in Dungeon and Dragon magazines and that some non-zero percentage of that subgroup will enjoy getting that content online. I'm also wondering if you have any information suggesting that will be true or whether it is all personal conjecture.

Yes, I am assuming those things, because statistics lead me to believe they're true.

Do you really need a study to believe that?

Let's look at this:

Someone is interested in fantasy RPGs, because he already plays World of Warcraft at an internet cafe in China. We know he has internet access, likes fantasy role-play, likes gaming online, and can purchase things online.

I don't think I need a market research study to label him a potential customer.

And for that matter, if I had one, you'd just discount it and ask for another number.

Since that's what you did with the other statistics I provided.

Im not going to dance for you, just so you can keep coming to the conclusion you've already arrived at.

I am stating opinions. But I think I've shown why those opinions were logically derived.

Feel free to agree or disagree.

 

[Monkey King]

Mistwell! You keep mentioning that since only about 1% of D&D players bought Dungeon & Dragon, these magazines had no real following in the market, and only a small percentage of D&D players get damaged because of their cancelation.

WotC splatbooks and adventures rarely sell better than the magazines in terms of raw numbers per month (core books are the obvious exception).

It's largely a matter of cost; magazines have a pre-sell to the subscribers, plus whatever they pick up from the newstand. However, some WotC books sell better than a single issue of the magazine over time; the magazines get pulled from the newstand in 30 days.

 

[Muad'dib Pendragon]

By viable, I was speaking about potential market penetration.

Given the expense of international shipping, I think the web is the best way to reach the international market, which is huge. Much larger (by population), than the US market.

Russia, China and India have an internet user base almost the size of the entire US population.

Agreed. However, I think the language barrier is another huge hurdle. While English grows and is often a second language, that's not always the case. Could you imagine DI in Mandarin?

For me, I think the DI has a lot of potential.

I'll withhold judgment until WotC actually graces its customers with tangible DI information.

 

[carmachu]

Right, just like people who MMOs here are gamers who MIGHT like P&P RPGs if exposed to them.

People keep saying Dragon introduced them to the hobby.

Putting Dragon online is the best way to reach Asia, a population several times the size of the US.

This is a good idea.

if your intentions is to reach a mainly online Asian market, killing a magazine thats mostly in the states makes SO much sense.

/sarcasm.

 

[Monkey King]

Also, you show a great ignorance of those countries. China has a HUGE population of massively multiplayer online games. So obviously there's a large population of of folks not only with an internet connection, but with high-speed access.

While people don't own as many computers, people oversees have these things called internet cafes. The MMO market is huge in Korea too.

Now let's look at some numbers: China has 123 million internet users, India has 60 million internet users, Russia has 24 million internet users. All those numbers are from the CIA World Factbook btw.

That's 200 million internet users. A lot of them, based on the popularity of online gaming in those countries, are already predisposed to liking wizard's products.

Sorry, this is a great move. And it will be a better move tomorrow, and the day after that.

Well, it's true what you say about online access. However, it's a shame that Wizards doesn't have access to the MMO rights for D&D. Turbine holds those rights right now, and is using them.

So whatever the DI is, it is not an MMO. Comparing the DI to an MMO is a mistake.

 

[Warbringer]

I enjoy Gen Con on the rare occasions I can go, but it wouldn’t personally kill me if the show were cancelled – but I’m aware that others feel very, very different. And I respect that deeply. The attendance of Gen Con Indy is even less than that 1% of 5 million quoted so often, but if the show were cancelled tomorrow (perhaps replaced by an online version to reach more people?) I wouldn’t be at all surprised to read the posts reflecting the anger and sorrow and memories. And I’d respect those feelings, because the show, like the two magazines, is more than a simple product. It too is a gaming icon with a rich tradition founded in the very fabric of the game we profess to love.

Just my two coppers; thanks for reading this long missive.

Shhh... people are listening.

Don't want to let the cat out of the bag on this Second Life project yet

 

[Vocenoctum]

WotC splatbooks and adventures rarely sell better than the magazines in terms of raw numbers per month (core books are the obvious exception).

It's largely a matter of cost; magazines have a pre-sell to the subscribers, plus whatever they pick up from the newstand. However, some WotC books sell better than a single issue of the magazine over time; the magazines get pulled from the newstand in 30 days.

Cost wise, Magazines have the advantage of preselling (but I'm thinking that couples with a higher return rate), but also less per issue, profitwise. (Perhaps not percentage of retail, but in actual dollars. Half of $8 is less than half of $20, so to speak.) It also depends on how WotC's licensing deal went.

WotC has an idea of how many folks visit their website, so they may have figured that X% of those will pay $5 a month, and that will amount to more money for them, but also for more direct control.

 

[delericho]

I doubt that the MMORPG crowd will be any more interested in D&D just because it's now online. I doubt that they're going to introduce some graphic engine to represent the deeds, and if they do, they haven't created online D&D, but merely another D&D computer game, like Neverwinter Nights or Stormreach, since that kind of environment just can't properly support all the possibilities of D&D.

Oh my!

A disturbing thought occurs: although the Stormreach of NWN engines couldn't handle all of D&D, I bet it could handle all of the examples of the Delve format we've seen to date...