WOTC, Scott, Where in the World is the GSL

[breschau]

Another view of this that I think a lot of us are missing is the fact that Paizo was just handed mantle of 3.5 in a little box with a bow on top. They didn't have to pay anything for it, they just had to wait for the dust to settle and realize they were standing at the head of the pack.

Sure, they were handed the mantle... and what was the first thing they did? Altered it. Changed it. There are people who are switching to 4E no matter what, those sales are lost to Paizo. There are people who are sticking with 3.x no matter what, those sales are now lost to Paizo. So who exactly is Paizo trying to win over here? The diehard 3.x crowd is the only possible target, but with the changes they've already announced (in the last 24 hours no less) they've made it perfectly clear that they are making changes and that there will be a need to change standard 3.x stuff to fit with Pathfinder.

They have the mantle and are giving it a shiny new paint job. Great. The 3.x crowd doesn't want a new coat of paint, they want the exact same thing they've been playing for years. Paizo is scrambling after the 1% that like 3.5 enough not to switch to 4E, but don't like 3.5 enough to continue playing it as is. That's specializing yourself out of business.

NOTE: I hope I'm wrong. I wish Paizo all the best. I had never heard of them before seeing a link to their site over on the M&M boards. I am in publishing. I know something of that side of the hobby we all love. I see it as a huge risk with very low potential for payoff. If most of Paizo's revenue comes from other things than their Pathfinder adventures, then it's not that much of a risk. But if the subscription adventure sales kept them going, just from this thread alone, we're seeing loyal customers abandon them left and right.

 

[nothing to see here]

[edited] Oops! I goofed sorry. Ignore this post. Nothing to see here.

Why do I have to ignore your post?

 

[Lizard]

They have the mantle and are giving it a shiny new paint job. Great. The 3.x crowd doesn't want a new coat of paint, they want the exact same thing they've been playing for years. Paizo is scrambling after the 1% that like 3.5 enough not to switch to 4E, but don't like 3.5 enough to continue playing it as is. That's specializing yourself out of business.

Or, they're going after those who want something newish, but not so new it completely changes the paradigm, and who would be willing to do *conversion*, but not *recreation*, of their existing campaigns.

Switching to Pathfinder is easier than switching to 4e, and the reward -- continued support of core rules which are mostly compatible -- is worth the effort. 4e appeals mostly to those who have totally given up on 3x, not to those who like it but can see areas for improvement. Given that there's plenty of active 3x campaigns out there, I think the number of people who don't see it as "broken beyond repair" is pretty large.

In other words, many people who will go to Pathfinder DO like 3e enough to keep playing it as it is, but ALSO are willing to change -- to an extent. 3.5 is good, Pathfinder is as good, or better, and the benefits (active core support) outweigh the costs (minor rules changes).

 

[Will]

I suspect suits have been absolutely horrified at 3e's OGL and freely available SRD rules, and are now in a Star Trekkian battle with devs over how much freedom to give 'parasites.'

The suits have already won a few key battles, which really ing sucks (IE: no SRD rules).

 

[xechnao]

I'd lvoe to see that happen, but to me it's looking more and more like the GSL is just an afterthought for WotC; something they're doing to avoid the PR backlash they'd get if they had just killed it.

Hyrum.

Cant claim this hasn't passed from my mind too.

 

[nothing to see here]

I posted this elsewhere - my guess is 10%. 10% of 4E sales of the core books probably means millions of dollars to WoTC. Whoever caused this delay at WoTC should be in danger of losing their job over this.

Where did you get that 10% number? Granted very few of us have up-to-date market research on the table-top RPG business, but every account we have heard from within the industry hammers home the point that there are really two tiers: D&D. And everyone else.

10% of D&D sales is likely massive beyond Paizo's reckoning. D&D is the only table-top-RPG with any barnd-awareness in the non-RPG community. D&D also has massive penetration in mainstream book channels.

Whatever the temperature of the debate on ENWorld it is highly unlikely that there is a legion of silent grognards out there waiting stick it to the man by completely ignoring D&D in favour of a niche competitor.

I have no doubt that Paizo will do very well for itself, given their relatively small complement of employees. To think that they will jeopardize D&D in any meaningful way is a manifestion of the common mistake hyper-engaged people often make when they map their prejudices map on to the general public as a whole. Happens all the time in the politics and entertianment industries.

 

[Henry]

Truth be told, this thread really belongs in the OGF-List folder, so I'm moving it there.

 

[Nytmare]

Draw us a picture!

Then we post it (as an avatar or in a sig or whatever) whenever The Rouse posts.

 

[Dausuul]

I would be interested to see if they pull the $5K buy-in.

AFAIK, the 5K wasn't there to make WotC any money ... it was there specifically to keep small-press publishers from producing lots of product.

I agree. After all, how many third-party publishers could WotC expect to pony up that $5K? Surely no more than ten, probably less. $50K is a lot for you or me, but not so much from WotC's perspective.

 

[Vigilance]

I would be interested to see if they pull the $5K buy-in.

AFAIK, the 5K wasn't there to make WotC any money ... it was there specifically to keep small-press publishers from producing lots of product.

I imagine they'll push the dates out. I've always seen it as a move specifically motivated by a desire to suppress certain elements of the hobby publishing community by requiring a certain level of dedication from larger companies to ensure relatively few, relatively high-quality products in the opening phase of 4E.


--fje

That might have been the idea, but it didn't work out that way.

Now they've guaranteed themselves almost no support for the launch GenCon, and if they push the dates out, almost no support for the launch Christmas either.

If you assume that the "Skaff effect" and all that other stuff Wotc has been talking about is really believed in house, you'd think they WANT 3rd party support.