Hussar said:I take a different point of view. When 3e first hit, the field was open enough that it could support (at least for a while) lots and lots of publishers. Looking back to a year ago, we're down to about five. If 4e wasn't happening, and we were just continuing from 3.5, do you think the number of 3PP's would increase or decrease or stay the same?
If 4e wasn't coming, my prediction would have been that we'd be down to Paizo and Goodman games. Green Ronin was only producing a small handful of modules in their Bleeding Edge line. You had the Dragonlance bunch doing some very good quality, but terribly niche material. Who else?
If 3.5 had gone on for two more years, you wouldn't see any 3PP's doing D&D stuff at all.
To answer this.. in 2 years, you would of been looking at a haunted field where we all were waiting for 4th edition to come along, as 3.5 really is part of the 3rd edition cycle, and was nearing the end of it's dominance, as more and more folks were just starting to really get tired of the glut of "New Stuff", but that only recycled the system a little bit or took a mildly different approach.
Ultimately, I was thinking D&D 4E was 2 years too soon. But that's because I kept having more and more fundamental issues with the logic behind 3E/3.5 with no real fundamental unifying math behind it all. Too many things were done that were built upon other predications but each piece added started to fray the weave of suspension of disbelief.
And as you got to the upper level ranges of 12+ you started really having to come up with some significant work as a DM when you crafted your adventures. Each piece taking longer and longer, and requiring significantly more work. And oh my the save or die issues build into that system. So not cool..
They've rebuilt this game literally from the ground up now with 4E. Solid mathematics, magic items that aren't built upon a complete predication of stat enhancements where EVERY single player has to be kitted out relatively similar to each other version. Every single class is built with a purpose and my personal absolute favorite. Two parts, Social Encounters codified and functionally giving the players a hand in adjusting the narrative, and have it fit in with those other fun parts known as encounters that don't take 4 hours to make a handful of bad guys. Now you can go in and pick and choose, fill up the xp quota of the "Area/Encounter(s)" And then easily modify what you need with a lot less hassle. This right here, has so reinvigorated my interest in D&D that it's fully rejuvinated my 25 years of D&D play again.
(We all experience a level of burn out over time, this just came at exactly the right time. And they can for all intents and purposes as I can see, focused on fun, solid math behind things, and ease of play)
As it relates to 3rd party publishers.
I hope they'll get access to a functional GSL. I hope so, because everything I've gathered about 4E will make their jobs considerably easier, and they can focus on the good stuff, knowing once they get a handle on the fundamentals, they can then see the depth and option and provide us with a great suite of complimentary materals, that suits whatever niche they are trying to fill, from adventures to campaign worlds and their support materials. Et. al.