I've never tried to tell a particular story in a game, and when I've tried to do so with AP style stuff it always chafes me. I figure I'll set the stage and some kind of story may develop from the mayhem that results due to game play. I'm a game trumps DM's story type, even when I'm the DM.
I sort of do this, but I also throw in a bunch of stuff that's going to happen in the background unless the PCs do something about it (i.e. I have a few current campaign exceptions to what you posted here). If the PCs want to ignore the Cult of the Dragon, ok. That doesn't mean that the Cult of the Dragon then fails to raise Tiamat, it just means that the PCs have to face the consequences of Tiamat entering the prime material plane at some point in the future. Typically, I have about 5 or so major things going on in the background, some from the campaign, some introduced from the PC backgrounds. So the game tends to lean in the direction of my storylines, but easily veers off into other directions quite a bit.