D&D 5E Speculating about the future of the D&D industry/community in a post-5E world

Gundark

Explorer
In the mid term, Paizo will do well, regardless of what happens with 5E. Their bread and butter is subscriptions, and people who are committed enough to subscribe to a product line aren't very quick to jump ship. Paizo has earned a lot of loyalty.

If D&D 5E can provide modules that satisfy those who want a more complex game with more character options, then the Pathfinder rules system is probably in trouble, long-term. But, assuming the 3.5 to 5E conversion documents work well for Pathfinder as well, I suspect that the Pathfinder Adventure Paths and Campaign Setting will be rather popular across both games. Regardless of what happens, that's a valuable IP.

Yeah in some ways Paizo's APs are kind of "system neutral"
 

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Jake Johnson

First Post
I won't bother to speculate on how 5E affects the business end, since I would be guessing without a whole lot of information or expertise. As to the community, though, I will speculate that 5E may very well reinvigorate not just the gaming community, but the D&D community.

A lot of us that "abandoned" D&D during 4E did really want to like and play the current edition of Dungeons and Dragons. Because our personal tastes or other preferences did not match up with 4E, though, we either went to pathfinder, joined the ranks of the OSR, found a variant, moved on to non-D&D related system, or quit gaming altogether. (I was one of the ones who preferred to go Old School but ended up sticking with Pathfinder due to the relative ease of finding players.) Some few of us even hung in there with 4E, even if we did not really like it -- I did so for about a year before finally throwing in the towel. But we wanted to like D&D -- not just the concept or the feel or even an old version of it, but the D&D that was on the shelves.

I think a lot of us -- lapsed D&D players for whom that game is their primary preference -- have been waiting for a new version of D&D and will come back in droves. Now, whether "we" will stay is a different issue. 5E may not be the game that *is* D&D to those lapsed players. But our reinvestment in the game, even if only initially, will reinvigorate the D&D community, I think.

Your post captures my sentiment well. I don't want to play something else (Pathfinder, etc.). I want D&D. As long as WotC has learned its lessons, and will continue to support the franchise as they appear to be doing now, listening to feedback, focusing on quality over quantity, I'm in. I must say that as a returning player, it is interesting to note the dynamic between D&D and Pathfinder. From an outsider's view, it definitely looks like Pathfinder has succeeded largely because D&D failed. As I mentioned in a previous post, it will be interesting to see what the landscape looks like when the 5E core rule books have been out for a year.
 

Starfox

Hero
Yeah in some ways Paizo's APs are kind of "system neutral"

Isn't this always the case with good adventures? I do a lot of conversion of adventures to my homebrew, so I regard adventures without looking very hard at what system they're in. I guess this is because I am a storyteller first; what I care about in an adventure is the plot/story, tactical elements can always be rewritten.
 

variant

Adventurer
What D&D games are you referring to?

As to your other point, are we still reflecting on D&D's popularity vs. Pathfinder in the 5E era or are we comparing Pathfinder to every RPG ever?

Paizo must be doing something right or Pathfinder would not have been the #1 game for the last year. It's popularity is just fine.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Dungeons_&_Dragons_video_games

We are talking about brand strength, not just popularity of an RPG based on a flawed ICv2 report. Brand strength determines how easily Pathfinder can adapt in a 5e era. Pathfinder just doesn't have the brand strength of even some less popular RPGs like Shadowrun and World of Darkness. I would more regard it as something like HackMaster. Its popularity is based on its relationship to D&D as opposed to on its own merits.
 

Bluenose

Adventurer
Isn't this always the case with good adventures? I do a lot of conversion of adventures to my homebrew, so I regard adventures without looking very hard at what system they're in. I guess this is because I am a storyteller first; what I care about in an adventure is the plot/story, tactical elements can always be rewritten.

That probably depends on how much of the plot is based on the particular rules set in question. If it's written on the basis that a party will have access to certain resources and their enemy will have other resources to counter that, then it can be very hard to convert to another system that doesn't assume such things are easily obtained. Even specific versions of D&D show that, let alone other systems.


And to address the thread topic, D&D is going to be top of the IcV2 poll for a while and will probably sell well through Amazon and elsewhere too. And if WotC churn our more material (adventures, supplements, FR sourcebooks et al) at the rate Paizo do, then their sales volume will certainly be bigger. IcV2 will show D&D at the top of the pole, everyone will say this proves 5e is a great success, regardless of whether it meets it's internal sales targets. If they don't "support" the game with as much product as Paizo, then it might be a different story on IcV2 and no doubt 5e will be regarded as a failure if it doesn't stay at the top of that chart/poll, again regardless of whether it meets unknown and internal sales targets.
 

The new edition of D&D will always bring complications for it’s competitors, and Pathfinder et al are just that, ultimately. Their fans have been well catered for, but whatever weakness these games have in comparison to the ’new shiny’ will be highlighted now - not least when they are up against the major brand of the hobby.

For me, Pathfinder is just a complicated version of D&D now, and I’ve never liked the cartoon artwork. The design of the massive 500+ page core rules book may also come into question, while their starter set is more expensive than that provided by D&D too. There were marketing reasons for all that when they were originally produced, but that will be the cursory inspection of many wavering or casual fans.

To me, the major reason for supporting Pathfinder was because of the regularity of finding gaming groups - a significant inhibitor in many other rpgs. I was also a fan of how they generally listened to their fan base and basically gave them what they wanted, but if D&D comes back in force then these advantages go too.

The question as to Pathfinder’s future IS a speculation, of course, but I do feel that most games operate in cycles of popularity. Many choose to recycle themselves with new editions or highly anticipated supplements to keep current fans interested. If Pathfinder is heading for a typical ’tail end’ of their current cycle and decide they need to reboot, then Paizo will have to think carefully. As it stands, it is there and still selling as far as I know, but I’m not really sure what the selling point over D&D is now, beyond simple brand loyalty.
 
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Tuft

First Post
Isn't this always the case with good adventures? I do a lot of conversion of adventures to my homebrew, so I regard adventures without looking very hard at what system they're in. I guess this is because I am a storyteller first; what I care about in an adventure is the plot/story, tactical elements can always be rewritten.

That probably depends on how much of the plot is based on the particular rules set in question. If it's written on the basis that a party will have access to certain resources and their enemy will have other resources to counter that, then it can be very hard to convert to another system that doesn't assume such things are easily obtained. Even specific versions of D&D show that, let alone other systems.

I've played a lot of [MENTION=2303]Starfox[/MENTION] homebrew (and love it to bits!) - it has been used in our main 8h/week campaign for the past three-four years. We've played Pathfinder AP adventures, Pathfinder Society adventures, lots of old D&D adventures from [MENTION=2303]Starfox[/MENTION] extensive archive of Dungeon Magazine, from the first issue to the last days of 3.5E - everything we've played have been conversions. [MENTION=2303]Starfox[/MENTION] homebrew, http://hastur.net/wiki/Action, is very different from d20 mechanically, but can be very similar in flavour, which is what matters.
 

Starfox

Hero
That probably depends on how much of the plot is based on the particular rules set in question. If it's written on the basis that a party will have access to certain resources and their enemy will have other resources to counter that, then it can be very hard to convert to another system that doesn't assume such things are easily obtained. Even specific versions of D&D show that, let alone other systems.

This is what I mean by tactics. And to be honest, an adventure to which this was a central element is not a good adventure IMO. Your mileage may vary.
 

Paizo is undoubtedly going to take a hit.

How much of a hit remains to be seen. The audiences are a little different and Pathfinder can build on it's reputation as a more mature system with non-standard releases and greater customization due to the wealth or crunch. And Pathfinder can continue to attract the players who really want a crunchy, rules heavy experience rather than an OSR 5e.
It will be a long while before WotC can do something like Wrath or the Righteous, let alone Iron Gods or Reign of Winter.

Still, Paizo is putting out a LOT of books and has been hiring new staff at a pretty heavy rate. This might hurt them when it comes time to tighten the belt and reduce the number of books.
Paizo also hasn't done themselves any favours by doubling down on the Pathfinder brand rather than diversifying and building a stable of other products. Even their generic RPG products have switched from "Game Mastery" to "Pathfinder".

Two advantages Paizo have are it's focus on adventures and organized play program. Even if 5e kicks PF's ass, the Adventure Paths might continue to sell well. It will take a while for WotC to build up a stable of good adventures and provide people with a choice of campaign theme.
Pathfinder Society is also going strong, with a really healthy fanbase, lots of established volunteers, and wealth of adventures. They campaign is well established and a lot of the rough bits of managing a huge OP program have been smoothed over six years. It will take Expeditions some time to compete, and the early few months will be rough.

Paizo also has fanboys. People love D&D but few people love WotC. They're pretty faceless as a company, the upper management is pretty divorced from the fans, and the CEO isn't remotely a gamer of any stripe. I quite like the D&D team, but they're a small cog at the mercy of the big company.
In contrast, people love Paizo. They're no longer small, but still come off as a small company and interact pretty closely with the fans. And Pathfinder is a huge part of the company. There's a lot more brand loyalty. I can see a lot of people continuing to buy Pathfinder releases to support Paizo.
 


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