Should the Greatsword be d12?

[deleteme123456]

Maul gets a bit more interesting with hammer rhythm, but sounds right. Maul > Greataxe at heroic for many characters, Greataxe > Maul at epic. In paragon it depends.

Not really. GA > Maul at Heroic. If 20 swings gets 10 hits and 1 of these is a crit (9 normal), then the GA does 9*6.5 + 1*(12+6.5) = 77 and the Maul does 9*7 + 1*12 = 75.

Now if you assume a higher chance to hit, and 20 swings gets 15 hits, we add 5*6.5 for the extra GA hits and 5*7 for the extra Maul hits, and get 109.5 GA and 110 Maul. But do you really have a 75% chance to hit at Heroic?

The average starting player has a +4 stat and these are both +2 weapons. If we spot you a +1 magic item at level 1 and call you a two-handed fighter, that's a total of +8. Average monster AC is level + 14, or 15 at Level 1. That means you need a 7, which is a 70% chance to hit, which makes them dead even. If you don't have that +1 magic or aren't a fighter, that's 60%.

So they're very close at Heroic then but the GA is still probably better. I'll refactor it later with Hammer Rhythm and +6 magic weapons for the epic comparison.

I'm staying far far away from vorpals, though, since I don't want to start another holy war.

 

[eloquentaction]

Then the average damage per swing is:
Level 1 test, 1[W]+ability (at +4):
(21-number needed to roll)/20*(avg weapon dmg + ability) + 0.05*(
(max weapon dmg - avg weapon dmg) + avg high crit dmg per [W])

Note that at the end for the Critical hit which happens with p = 0.05 or 1/20 times, we calculate damage by subtracting the average weapon damage from the max damage because we already counted the weapon average damage once on this hit in the previous part. We then add the weapon's high crit damage, if any. This effectively gives you the extra damage on a crit. For example, a longsword has average damage 4.5 and max damage 8 and no high crit. So if you need to roll an 11 to hit, then (21-11) = 10, divided by 20 = 0.5, which is the chance to hit. So we multiply that by the average damage and get 0.5*4.5. Now 1/20 of these rolls are crits, so we need to add not 8, because we already counted 4.5, but (8-4.5).

I re-ran your numbers and even put them into an Excel sheet (see attached).

I factored my damage numbers based on a 50% hit rate and then increased damage based on the Prof bonus in 0.05 increments.

I also factored in some numbers for 'Utility factor' such as 'off hand', 'Load free' vs 'Load minor', 'Reach' and so forth.

When I did all this, the numbers started 'flattening out'. You can tell the designers did a lot of the same kind of math when they were designing things.

Anyway, the numbers speak for themselves. Take a look at my spreadsheet and see if I made any obvious mistakes. For those of you without Excel, I listed the weapons and their 'magic numbers' below.

Weapon Name Magic #
Club 2.1
Dagger 2.625
Javelin 2.6
Mace (1H) 2.7
Mace (2H) 2.9
Sickle 2.6
Spear (1H) 2.7
Spear (2H) 2.9
Greatclub 2.6
Morningstar 2.9
Quarterstaff 2.3
Scythe 2.6
Hand crossbow 2.6
Sling 2.6
Crossbow 2.6

Battleaxe (1H) 3.2
Battleaxe (2H) 3.4
Flail (1H) 3.2
Flail (2H) 3.4
Handaxe 3
Longsword (1H) 2.825
Longsword (2H) 3.075
Scimitar 3
Short sword 2.675
Throwing hammer 3
Warhammer (1H) 3.2
Warhammer (2H) 3.4
War pick (1H) 3
War Pick (2H) 3.25
Falchion 3.15
Glaive 3.5
Greataxe 4
Greatsword 3.075
Halberd 3.8
Heavy Flail 3.7
Longspear 3.8
Maul 3.7
Longbow 3.3
Shortbow 2.7

Bastard Sword (1H) 3.375
Bastard Sword (2H) 3.625
Katar 2.875
Rapier 2.725
Shuriken 1.925

-- Hirahito

 

[Kzach]

I re-ran your numbers and even put them into an Excel sheet (see attached).

Cool, but, umm... for the math retarded, what conclusions does this lead one to make?

 

[Mercutio01]

Based on that analysis, then the Great Sword really is underpowered. But I'm not a mathematician so I have no idea how accurate that stuff is. High Crit, according to that chart, brings the GS up to about where I think it should be. More powerful than a bastard sword one-handed, but less powerful than a bastard sword two-handed.

I know enough about magic numbers to say that it's a way of comparing things that seem incomparable. The GS has a low magic number for what it does. Almost a full point lower than a great axe. It really looks like adding High Crit to it brings it in line numerically. It's the low number in the 2 handers.

 

[eloquentaction]

Based on that analysis, then the Great Sword really is underpowered. But I'm not a mathematician so I have no idea how accurate that stuff is. High Crit, according to that chart, brings the GS up to about where I think it should be. More powerful than a bastard sword one-handed, but less powerful than a bastard sword two-handed.

I know enough about magic numbers to say that it's a way of comparing things that seem incomparable. The GS has a low magic number for what it does. Almost a full point lower than a great axe. It really looks like adding High Crit to it brings it in line numerically. It's the low number in the 2 handers.

Mercutio's correct. A magic number is a reference number that allows you to see how one item is rated compared to another. On this scale, the lowest weapon is the Shuriken, the highest is the Greataxe.

I noticed a couple of things. One - All of the Superior weapons really aren't; especially not for spending a feat. Two - the designers did a pretty good job, with a few exceptions. Three - all 'common' weapons like longsword, etc are ALL less powerful than a more exotic counterpart. I think the Greatsword fell into this niche. I think the designers were basically trying to push people into using a weapon a bit out of the ordinary.

And Mercutio. Right now the Greatsword is a right around a 3. Giving it a d12 of damage bumps this number to 3.73. Giving it a High Crit bumps the number to 3.53.

Remember though; the designers seem to be penalizing common weapons, especially swords. There's probably a reason why they're doing that.

-- Hirahito

 

[Mercutio01]

Yeah, but the problem based on your magic number is that the Greatsword is no better than using the longsword two-handed. That doesn't make sense from a mechanical standpoint. Giving it a d12 is too much because then it outshines the bastard sword and approaches the damage level of heftier weapons like the greataxe.

Right now, the falchion is a better choice than the great sword, which doesn't make a whole lot of sense either. I think adding high crit to the great sword and bumping it's number to between the 1h and 2h numbers for the bastard sword makes the most sense.

 

[eloquentaction]

I... did... but it's a little too simplistic. For example, high crit is not worth more than +1 to hit, and versatile is not worth +1 damage die size. Far from it, even (crits and xW weapons where x > 1 see to that).

That is to say, a +2 hit 1d10 weapon beats the pants off a +2 hit 1d4 high crit versatile weapon.

Keterys -

You're correct. The magic number for a hypothetical +2 / 1d10 weapon is 3.3. The magic number for a hypothetical +2 / 1d4 high crit, versatile weapon being used 2 handed is 2.35.

Obviously a huge difference.

-- Hirahito

 

[keterys]

Not really. GA > Maul at Heroic. If 20 swings gets 10 hits and 1 of these is a crit (9 normal), then the GA does 9*6.5 + 1*(12+6.5) = 77 and the Maul does 9*7 + 1*12 = 75.

You're not factoring for encounter or daily powers at all.

If those 20 attacks are 2 reliable 3W dailies, 4 2W encounters, and the rest 1Ws then you end up with 2 x 3W hits, 2 2W hits, 6 1W hits. The 6.5 damage from greataxe crit is comparing to .5 * (2 * 3 + 2 * 2 + 6) = 8, but the maul loses a little if the crit lands on a 2W or 3W (20% chance it loses 1.5, 20% 1, 60% chance .5) which still leaves the maul ahead by ~.7 (off top of head, can't access excel at moment). Further, in my experience consistent damage ever so slightly favors players (especially with no DR to worry about in 4e) so if the average damage is equal I'd favor the maul.

Now if you assume a higher chance to hit, and 20 swings gets 15 hits, we add 5*6.5 for the extra GA hits and 5*7 for the extra Maul hits, and get 109.5 GA and 110 Maul. But do you really have a 75% chance to hit at Heroic?

Depends on how many brutes you fight, most likely - varies from campaign to campaign I'd imagine, but I'd tend to _assume_ lower.

So they're very close at Heroic then but the GA is still probably better. I'll refactor it later with Hammer Rhythm and +6 magic weapons for the epic comparison.

Just remember that basic attacks alone do not a good test make

 

[deleteme123456]

Worth spelling out your assumptions, eloquentaction
Magic numbers are average damage with these penalities...
-0.1: Military
-0.2: Superior
-0.2: Load minor
-0.4: Two handed

...and these bonuses...
+0.5: Off-hand
+0.5: Ranged (any non-zero)
+1.0: Reach

High crit is factored in a bonus 5% of of the maximum damage, which is incorrect. That would imply that when you crit with a high crit, you maximize that high crit die/dice, which of course is not true.

Since I also disagree that military melee should be penalized because ANY class that wants to use a melee weapon is going to at least have military melee (OK, so Clerics don't, but then you might as well just get the bastard sword).

After adjustment, the Halberd and Longspear come out on top, which shows that unless you REALLY think reach is the bomb, the formula is flawed.

 

[eloquentaction]

Yeah, but the problem based on your magic number is that the Greatsword is no better than using the longsword two-handed. That doesn't make sense from a mechanical standpoint. Giving it a d12 is too much because then it outshines the bastard sword and approaches the damage level of heftier weapons like the greataxe.

Right now, the falchion is a better choice than the great sword, which doesn't make a whole lot of sense either. I think adding high crit to the great sword and bumping it's number to between the 1h and 2h numbers for the bastard sword makes the most sense.

Long sword (2H) Damage: 2-9 (avg. 5.5). Magic Number: 3.25
Greatsword Damage: 1-10 (avg. 5.5). Magic Number: 3.3

Both are +3 weapons. The .05 difference is because the greatsword does slightly more damage on a critical.

So I think my magic number calcs are spot on.

And yeah, I think adding High Crit is probably the best solution.

I also think the Specialized weapons need to be looked at. They seem like they are underpowered. After doing the math, I'd feel ripped off for spending a feat on anything but a Bastard Sword and even then I would be dubious.

-- Hirahito