Changeover poll

[Edena_of_Neith]

So, people are risking Banning on ENWorld, so they can skew the results of a poll?

Look, you know the drill: Break the rules on ENWorld, they will eventually find out. Somehow, someway, maybe it will take awhile, but they will find out.
You know those road signs saying 'This short term pain means long term relief?' Well, it's the other way around here.
Your average over the counter painkillers might stop the headache from a traffic jam, but will do nothing for that nice red-lettered message from the Admins to you.

Anyways, I will put up a +/- 10% to represent this kind of vote rigging.

Changeover: 37% +/- 10%
Partial Changover: 13% +/- 10%
No Changeover: 50% +/- 10%

 

[sword3274]

It should at this time be noted that the old trick of deleting the cookies on your computer allowing you to vote again still works.

This might be one explanation of the surges of voting that occurs on both ends of the spectrum.

/M

Polls are just what they are - samplings of a whole. People who say, "You can't get a fair poll on these/those boards. Don't take too much stock in them." Whatever.

I think that's a pretty piss-poor excuse. I think that if people were sitting around, clearing cookies and revoting, the numbers would be huge - not to mention that they'd be a whole lot more votes for 4e, IMHO. And if that was being done, on both sides, they would cancel out and the percentages would be the same. Based in these votes and things like the ratings at Amazon, really tell the feedback of 4e. This edition is shaping up to be a "love it or hate it" edition.

What's funny is that if the vote was vastly in favor of 4e, I doubt anyone would be arguing its validity.

 

[Delta]

Anyways, I will put up a +/- 10% to represent this kind of vote rigging.

Changeover: 37% +/- 10%
Partial Changover: 13% +/- 10%
No Changeover: 50% +/- 10%

This post makes no sense whatsoever. Indicating "+/-10" in a statistical discussion means something very specific and calculable (see my prior post), and you've just made this up as an entire fiction.

Is this supposed to be a joke?

 

[National Acrobat]

Had played 3.5, tried 4E and now we are going to start a new 1E campaign this weekend, so I guess we went way back.

 

[Dragon Snack]

The operative word being "before". I was asked to provide a link to back up my claim of seeing third parties saying d20 was not doing well before the announcement of 4th. I did.

And I accept it. Thanks, I hadn't seen either before. Clark's post is very prescient in light of events, but it's funny that NOBODY commented on it at the time.

I still don't read this poll as 51% switching, by my estimation it's still at 42% (I'm sure some partials are people testing the waters). Eventually that number will rise, but I don't see the current numbers as anything good for WotC.

I won't argue semantics over the core books or their shelf life, we all know they sold well. Now, once Martial Powers and the FRCS are out...

 

[Edena_of_Neith]

This post makes no sense whatsoever. Indicating "+/-10" in a statistical discussion means something very specific and calculable (see my prior post), and you've just made this up as an entire fiction.

Is this supposed to be a joke?

Sort of, yes. Just count the actual figures. We'll compare it with the poll a year from now.

 

[Hussar]

Dragonsnack - they've already announced that H1 has gone to second printing. When's the last time a module went to second printing?

 

[Delta]

Sort of, yes. Just count the actual figures. We'll compare it with the poll a year from now.

That doesn't make any sense at all. Are you planning on making up margins of error in the future as well?

 

[Dragon Snack]

Dragonsnack - they've already announced that H1 has gone to second printing. When's the last time a module went to second printing?

I'm pretty sure Keep On The Borderlands was, since I've seen it with at least 3 different covers. But what's the point? This whole "second printing" is kind of rediculous without numbers...

Irreguardless, I'm waiting to see how much 4.0s numbers will increase when the new books come out. Make no mistake, I fully expect the numbers to take a nice jump in 4.0s favor. Between the Swordmage and Living FR, the FRCS should be a huge catalyst for people changing.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

The whole quote is:
"With the market for third party d20 material continuing its death spiral, there is no longer a quick and easy way for new companies to establish themselves."

Using the words "death spiral" isn't a ringing endorsement of the health of the d20 market at the time. It was also about then that Green Ronin, one of the biggest d20 producers, announced going systemless with Freeport.

Regardless of the words "death spiral," the salient modifier is "third party." The person who wrote that was explicitly limiting his comment here to 3PPs- the phrase does not apply to WotC's sales at all. The market may have been bad for 3PPs, but we have no idea from his commentary as to the health of WotC's D20 sales.

As to the other link- so WotC flooded the market. So what? Its a standard tactic of industry leaders. For decades, smaller comic book companies tried to break the stranglehold Marvel and DC had on the market. Every year, Marvel and DC would flood the market with 4, 6, or 12 issue miniseries that made it unlikely that a startup would gain a foothold in the market, or even shelf space in a typical store.

However, eventually a certain few companies overcame this barrier to entry and carved out a niche for themselves, like Image, Dark Horse, Valiant, and a few others.

In the RPG market, serious gamers are going to figure out which company is putting out the best supp on Giantkin, Fey, Steampunk, Seafaring or whatever, even if WotC has supps on those topics. Some may even outsell the WotC products.