The theory that I was responding to was that 20 year lapsed players are going to coming back to 4e. I don't see it happening. I think there may be a handful that pick up 4e, but the vast, vast majority of 20 year lapsed players are gone for good.
The problem is that your opinion here is just that. Just because it's not your preference, and not what you think D&D is like, doesn't mean that it's a universal truth.
Not a matter a preference. Not trying to start an edition war. I actually think 4e is a pretty good game. However, it's quite different from 1e/2e. I think that 3e forms a bit of a "bridge". 3e has a lot of similarities to 1e/2e. 4e has a lot of similarities to 3e. If you remove 3e from the equation, however, it's a very big jump from 1e/2e to 4e. To a 20 year lapsed player, 4e won't have a lot in common with the D&D he remembers.
Anyway, I have severe doubts about the success of bringing out a D&D game that resembled old school D&D. I think it would appeal to a niche market, and turn off far more.
I think an inexpensive, Walmart-available boxed set similar to the old B/X edition, with a few minor tweaks, like ascending AC, has the potential to bring in a whole new generation of young players. It might turn off the hardcore crowd, but WotC already has 4e to cater to the hardcore crowd.
In fact, I think stagnation (or regression) is the best way to kill off the franchise. Gaming ideas, designs, and tastes have changed a lot in the last 20 years.
I'm not here to start an edition war. 4e is a good game. I think, though, that WotC has taken D&D down a path were it now caters to a niche crowd. Over the last 10 years, the WotC business plan seems to have been to focus on the hardcore D&D players that will buy lots of rulebooks and minis and steer the design of the game towards them.
There's a reason WotC is desperate to go after lapsed players. Their player base is the smallest it's ever been and it's probably still shrinking.
The old B/X and BECMI editions brought a large number of new players into the hobby. I know WotC is trying to do the same thing with Essentials, but I think in that case, they're trying to have their cake and eat it too. They want to release a simple version of the game that still contains all the complexity of 4e. That's a tall order and I'm interested to see what they come up with.