D&D 5E Why I Think D&DN is In Trouble

[oracular]

 

[Mistwell]

Marketing happens to be a field I do work in. There are many kinds of marketing and in an industry like tabletop gaming... a huge portion of the online marketing is done on forums and blogs. When we're talking niche or local products especially, marketing is done through word of mouth. Don't confuse the term 'marketing' with advertising in particular. Marketing is getting your target market to talk and think about your product or service.

Oracular, nobody is nefariously marketing for D&D 3.5 right now. Or even 4e for that matter. And yet, they shows up just fine in the numbers (about 25% of all discussions).

Pathfinder and D&D Next are what people are talking about these days. That doesn't directly translate into sales, but there is a strong correlation. People might not end up buying what they're talking about, but they tend to not buy the things they don't talk about. People talk about the things they're thinking about buying, and then they talk about the things they did buy.

This idea that the numbers are skewed because the employees of Paizo (a small company) and the D&D division of WOTC (which is also a small company, which is part of a larger company that is part of an even larger company that mostly ignores them) are spending their time going to forums other than the ones they run, to post the majority of comments (many thousands of them) on their games, is frankly ludicrous.

It's yet another extraordinary claim you've made, with no substantiation for it other than your word. And this time, you seem to be basing it on your guess too. I'll ask again, who are you that your guesses would be more credible than an RPG publisher?

I'll say it again...if the OSR is experiencing massive growth, it would be detected in what people are talking about. You've done nothing at all to put any doubt in that basic premise.

I like the OSR. I even bought an OSR magazine recently, and I talk about various OSR games (some of that 3-5% is me talking about it). I'm probably going to buy ACK. But, it's a very very tiny niche of this industry.

 

[Ahnehnois]

given that RPGs are a social activity whose practitioners tend to be technophiles

I am not sure I take that as given. RPGs are a social activity, but my observation has been that the hobby attracts a lot of relatively tech-naive people (including myself, typing from a desktop computer next to my just-acquired first smartphone). Of all the players and DMs I've known, very few of them participated in these kinds of online discussion about the hobby.

 

[heptat]

Haha yeah I wish the D&D stuff was real LEGO but unfortunately, that would never happen. So we keep painting LEGO figures to match

Nice

But am not a dude last I checked.

Apologies! (Yes, definitely a masculine term, but anyone can be a dude where I'm from. )

 

[Desdichado]

It's yet another extraordinary claim you've made, with no substantiation for it other than your word. And this time, you seem to be basing it on your guess too. I'll ask again, who are you that your guesses would be more credible than an RPG publisher?

Don't forget: nebulous credentialism. He works in marketing, duh! He doesn't need data!

 

[Mistwell]

Don't forget: nebulous credentialism. He works in marketing, duh! He doesn't need data!

CircvsMaximvs.com misses you.

 

[Dausuul]

I am not sure I take that as given. RPGs are a social activity, but my observation has been that the hobby attracts a lot of relatively tech-naive people (including myself, typing from a desktop computer next to my just-acquired first smartphone). Of all the players and DMs I've known, very few of them participated in these kinds of online discussion about the hobby.

Okay, fair point. I do think the hobby overall is significantly more tech-friendly than the general population, just because of the large overlap between gamers and computer geeks. But that doesn't necessarily mean there is a majority or even a substantial minority of technophiles, just a larger percentage than average. (And since we're on the subject of evidence, no, I don't have any hard data to back this up.)

 

[Ahnehnois]

Okay, fair point. I do think the hobby overall is significantly more tech-friendly than the general population, just because of the large overlap between gamers and computer geeks. But that doesn't necessarily mean there is a majority or even a substantial minority of technophiles, just a larger percentage than average. (And since we're on the subject of evidence, no, I don't have any hard data to back this up.)

To me, the computer geeks are the ones who play games on their computer, not in person. I guess we all fall under the general category of "geek", and it wouldn't surprise me if the level of tech literacy was incrementally higher in the D&D player base than in the general population simply for that reason.

However, I think it's important that while other people are playing everything from facebook games to MMOs, we are playing a game in person with pens and paper and physical dice. That's old school. Downright Luddite compared to some people.

 

[Neonchameleon]

Yay! Good data.

Out of curiosity, the lists look like they are exclusive but there are a number of exceptions:
* 13th Age tracks in both Hot Games (#3/127.3) and D&D Editions, Variations, and OSR Games (#6/127.3)
* M&M tracks in both Hot Roleplaying Games (#16) and Spotlight List: Superhero RPGs (#1)
* Marvel Heroic tracks in Hot Roleplaying Games (#34) and Spotlight List: Superhero RPGs (#4)
* Rotted Capes tracks in Hot Roleplaying Games (#40) and Spotlight List: Superhero RPGs (#5)
* Hero tracks in Hot Roleplaying Games (#41) and Spotlight List: Superhero RPGs (#6)

If the double ups were removed from the Hot Games list, it would change the percentages of those remaining somewhat, but not the ranking. If all (rather than some) of the D&D and Superhero games were incorporated into the Hot Games list, it would significantly change the rankings as well as the percentages.

I think.

thotd

The lists aren't exclusive. Almost all the games in the superhero category track on the main RPG (Icons might be folded into Fate) - but the main list doesn't include the big D&Ds because they would swamp it.

 

[oracular]