D&D 5E What would success look like for Next?

[tuxgeo]

D&D 5E will be a success if WotC produces and markets an easy "on-ramp" product that sells well to people who are new to the game (or to tabletop RPGs in general), and that thereby expands the hobby.

(I think I recall Mearls' having said something similar to that within the past few months: they aren't really worried about surpassing Paizo in sales, but are instead trying to grow the hobby overall.)

Now, their intro product might be a bare-bones "Basic" set with limited selection of races and classes; or it might be a Player's Handbook that is easy to read and get into;* but if WotC can have one constant product that they can keep producing year after year, and that the distributors and retail establishments (and remaining FLGS) can keep re-ordering and selling, and that the public buys in continuing streams of sufficient size, then that will constitute success of the edition/iteration, IMHO.

* - or it might be any of several other configurations.

 

[Jester David]

The bolded portion isn't necessarily true. It appears that the costs associated with producing D&D Next appear to be significantly lower than the costs associated with producing 4th Edition (i.e. smaller staff, no DDi development, etc.). This should translate into stronger ratios and a better profit margin for Hasbro. I'd say if D&D Next's initial sales are similar to 4th Edition's, then Hasbro would be quite happy. The bigger question is what sort of staying power will D&D Next have? Will it continue to generate a strong revenue stream 3-5 years down the line? That is a much tougher question to answer. I think that there is a model that works and I think they are taking steps in the right direction.

Except that 5e has spent the last three years generating no profit and racking up debt. That's a steep cost to pay opposed to just cutting staff and maintaining the edition.
We also don't know that they're not going to make digital tools.

 

[GX.Sigma]

Are people assuming 4e wasn't a success? If so, what metric are they using?

 

[n00bdragon]

Except that 5e has spent the last three years generating no profit and racking up debt. That's a steep cost to pay opposed to just cutting staff and maintaining the edition.
We also don't know that they're not going to make digital tools.

Actually it even now retains a surprisingly large number of paid for DDI accounts (you can easily look up the number of people on the forums with the DDI upgrade which indirectly tells you a bare minimum of the number of active subscribers). If those people are paying the cheapest available rate DDI has easily generated more raw dollars in the last six years than all the editions of D&D combined have ever sold in hardback form. Not even close. Now consider that DDI accounts are not a product like a book, they're a service and as such have zero production costs. It's all 100% profit except what it costs to have some community members write up some stuff every week and Mike Mearls to post a blog.

 

[Incenjucar]

Are people assuming 4e wasn't a success? If so, what metric are they using?

4E was a successful product in the sense of making money, but it wasn't the money-printing machine they desired, or else they wouldn't have ended it before fulfilling all the ideas they put forth when it was launched.

 

[Jester David]

Actually it even now retains a surprisingly large number of paid for DDI accounts (you can easily look up the number of people on the forums with the DDI upgrade which indirectly tells you a bare minimum of the number of active subscribers). If those people are paying the cheapest available rate DDI has easily generated more raw dollars in the last six years than all the editions of D&D combined have ever sold in hardback form. Not even close. Now consider that DDI accounts are not a product like a book, they're a service and as such have zero production costs. It's all 100% profit except what it costs to have some community members write up some stuff every week and Mike Mearls to post a blog.

1) The numbers in the DDI group are not reliable.
2) Much of DDI is independant of edition, being the magazines. There has been 5e adventures for sone time.
3) The costs of DDI are required to pay the production costs of the magazine AND maintain the servers of the tools & magazines AND pay for the development and maintinence of the tools.

After the money sunk making the digitsl tools, it probably took a couple years to turn a profit.

 

[GMforPowergamers]

1) The numbers in the DDI group are not reliable.
2) Much of DDI is independant of edition, being the magazines. There has been 5e adventures for sone time.
3) The costs of DDI are required to pay the production costs of the magazine AND maintain the servers of the tools & magazines AND pay for the development and maintinence of the tools.

After the money sunk making the digitsl tools, it probably took a couple years to turn a profit.

DDI is atleast a money maker today... I mean it still has subscribers and no new content and very little upkeep. I thought Mike Mearls just at the 1st L&L of the year talked about what a success the brand is this year even with little to no RPG books on the market. So if D&D can make money without even publishing money it is pretty easy to imagine that when they put out a new edition on the 40th anniversary they will do OK...

 

[Jester David]

Are people assuming 4e wasn't a success? If so, what metric are they using?

The fact they ended the edition to spend three years not producing any books.

I don't see why people are so hung up on this. It's permissible to like an edition that didn't succeed, that were good but didn't capture a large enough audience. And there are plenty of reasons 4e didn't succeed independent from the quality of the edition.

Success is not equated with quality, and quality is not equated with success.

 

[Jester David]

DDI is atleast a money maker today... I mean it still has subscribers and no new content and very little upkeep. I thought Mike Mearls just at the 1st L&L of the year talked about what a success the brand is this year even with little to no RPG books on the market. So if D&D can make money without even publishing money it is pretty easy to imagine that when they put out a new edition on the 40th anniversary they will do OK...

DDI is probably the reason they can get away with the two year playtest. But the revenue won't last forever.

 

[Ichneumon]

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Aside from sales figures and the like, D&D Next will have truly succeeded when you can say how your sharp new suit gives you Advantage in dealing with the boss, and have non-gamers get the reference.