D&D 5E What would success look like for Next?

[GMforPowergamers]

I have no clue why else they would have done it.

Well no one can say why for sure (well Hasbro accountants maybe) but it is possible:

1) 4e bombed and no one knew it
2) 4e was a huge success just not a big enough one
3) Some one pitched "Hey what if we could double our income"
4) The idea's started running thin and someone pitched a new direction
5) Something none of us thought of



If I were a betting man it would be that 4e 'only' sold X when they wanted Y where X would be a huge enough number that any other company (Say Onex path, or Piazo, or Goodmen) would call it a major success.

 

[Yora]

That's what I always assume. But I don't think it will work out.

 

[Halivar]

And the only reason I can think of why they would do that is that they thought it better to know when to fold them and stop all work immediately before "more money gets thrown out the window". So they must have been unhappy with the profit margin of 4th Edition.

This is all speculation, but I think this hits closer to the mark than anything else proffered. 4E probably made fantastic gobs and gobs of money.

But how much were they spending?

Failed digital initiatives on top of the ever-changing DDI probably ate an exorbitant chunk out of their revenue. For my part, I think the way forward is a simpler, easier and cheaper to manage digital interface more akin to d20srd.org than DDI, and ditch any other electronic initiatives beyond PDF's for everything.

Let the marketplace come up with solutions to everything else. WotC doesn't need to gamble on that stuff.

 

[Jacob Marley]

I don't think we've seen any indication that Hasbro sets bars for the RPG division directly. For a while, we had a poster here that help Hasbro stock who reported regularly on the quarterly conference calls discussing profits and such - D&D didn't generally merit mention in those calls, being small potatoes compared to the normal levels of business Hasbro does. It is not at all clear that Hasbro cares, except in terms of the general health of WotC, which pulls in a goodly chunk of change for its parent.

WotC may (almost certainly has) set some internal goals for D&D sales, but perhaps they don't have Hasbro breathing down their necks about it.

What is clear is that analysts don't care about D&D. From an analysts' point-of-view D&D is only worth a cursory nod, at best. If D&D were to be wildly successful -- that is, it becomes a $50-100M brand -- in a company that did $4.09B in revenues in 2012, then it would likely have a significant impact on both future earnings estimates and stock valuation.

Edit: Missed a decimal point, changed the analysis.

 

[Wulfgar76]

Others know far more than me about it, but 4e's failure on a business level was due to some highly unrealistic expectations on the part of the 4e Team and Hasbro. Someone thought a Tabletop RPG could carve into the massive money of MMORPGs. Something that is never, ever going to happen.

The problem is that D&D Next could be a smashing success in the TTRPG market, yet barely nudge Hasbro's profit meter needle.

In any case, I expect D&D to once again become the best selling, most popular, and most recognized Table Top RPG – which isn't saying much. The hobby itself is a a fringe one with a small audienc and tons of little third party publishers and kickstarters. It's a small pie with lots of hungry little munchkins lining up to take a bite.

 

[Quickleaf]

Success is going to look like Hasboro regaining the D&D movie rights.
Success is going to look like those Lego things flying off the shelves.
Success is going to look like Baldur's Gate clones for the iPad.
Success is going to look like more Drizzt board games.

IMO there'll be cross-promotions with the TTRPGs, especially the campaign settings which can be used to re-market the same merchandise again and again. And that's not to say that TTRPGs no longer matter at all.

But--Mearls and the rest of the D&D business team has been uncharacteristically clear about the plan going forward. I don't see any reason to doubt them on this.

I would echo this statement.

5e is not the unity edition.

5e is the muliplatform brand name edition.

 

[am181d]

I would echo this statement.

5e is not the unity edition.

5e is the muliplatform brand name edition.

I think the RPG guys are trying to use Hasbro's desire for B to bankroll A.

 

[Shemeska]

and 4e Ebberon campaign setting sold better then the 3.5 one...

This claim I don't think I've seen before. Where was this from?

 

[GMforPowergamers]

This claim I don't think I've seen before. Where was this from?

early last year (Maybe feb or march) people on tweeter where bombarding Mearls with fake data that 4e failed and 3e was the clear victor, I didn't start following tweets until a while after that, but it was at the time listed on Mike Mearls twitter thread on Wiz of the Coast... it came up again right around the new year when one of the many threads on WotC boards fell into the argument.

PHB1 out sold PHB1 every edition wotc has access too (so 3e sold X and 3.5 sold X+Y and 4e sold X+Y+Z) people came back with saying the proof was later in the addition, and mearls said the same thing happened with ebberon campaign setting...

now my guess is that only tracks initial print run, not all other print runs (witch I will leave to our imaginations)

 

[fjw70]

If I like it.

Ditto.