I imagine that if Collins, Heisoo, and co formed a 3PP and used the OGL to make 4e as a new game, devoid of all the baggage D&D as a brand brings, it would had succeeded far better than it did carrying the D&D logo. There were too many expectations that 4e broke, too many cannon changes, too many new assumptions, that the game got lost to its own 30 year history. Additionally, I'd suspect that "4dventure" or whatever hypothetical 4e game came out would not have died at Essentials, but gotten a second printing (2e) that fixed, clarified, and cleaned up the pile of errata and math problems. I'd be going strong (though not widely as played due to smaller audience size).
Now, if Essentials had been released first, I think the reception would have gone better, but that's a different story.