D&D 5E 1 Year later: D&D still strong on amazon

[Queer Venger]

This isn't some kind of national measurement that is recognized as so.

We don't have all the information to tell us these kinds of things nor we will ever so it's a fruitless claim to make that is based purely on opinion.

Its not opinion, but what seems *evident* to us is that you dont want to believe it, which is cool by me 'cuz Im playing, and alot of us are playing 5e

 

[KingsRule77]

This isn't some kind of national measurement that is recognized as so.

We don't have all the information to tell us these kinds of things nor we will ever so it's a fruitless claim to make that is based purely on opinion.

Since we don't have 100% of the requisite information all of the information we do have is tells us nothing.

I feel the same way about 'evolution' and 'climate science'

 

[BryonD]

[emphasis mine]
I am, games at my FLGS, and local stores in my area are reporting a major shortage of DM's due to player demand. Our AL is very well organized and we are hosting seminars to teach new DMs to meet this demand, so based on what I see, (and I live in a major Metropolitan city-Los Angeles, CA) more people are playing. Im DMing more D&D than I ever did when I first played 1e when I was in the USAF.

From what I saw at Gencon, more people are playing. And that is organized play, this does not account for home-games, which is the life-blood of D&D.

Im now teaching my nephew and his classmates, how to play D&D via Skype.
D&D is flourishing, and that is just in my own life.

cool

 

[BryonD]

According to recent comments (cannot recall if it was Mearls or Crawford), their data suggests a lot of new players.

Ok, I remain skeptical. But, that said, it is year one and I'm looking at it from a perspective of "what is typical". 5E is a great game and if they are seeing a big spike in players post-5E release then that is good to hear.

Mearls has said it's outsold 3e to this point of 3e's sales numbers.

Ok, but what does that really mean? As I said, 3E was competing with a vast range of D20 products for player's gaming budgets.

Well, we'd have to assume Mearls/Crawford's data is wrong then. I see no reason to assume that.

Neither do I. I mean, I won't simply presume that people talking in generalities about their own business are not spinning, but I won't dispute them without reason either.

I'll happily back away from my claim. It is still true that *I* don't see it. But that is pretty limited.
Now, that said, I'll still wager that the size of the fanbase ( as a % of overall population) doesn't really move away from long term average 3 years from now.

But, again, here at the one year mark I concede that a nice bump may very well be happening.

And still... The idea that sales are hanging in there at the release levels seems fishy. Keep in mind that we just went through a few years of being told that D&D was booming when it was obvious that it was not. So I'm not eager to switch sides of believing the hype just because I like 5E a lot.

Also, ICv2 is mirroring Mearls/Crawford data in saying Pathfinder sales have not really slowed by WOTC sales are massive. The only way to account for that is new players. Plus Hasbro quarterly report named D&D by name, which means sales had to hit a material revenue number (not a percentage change from prior numbers, but a base number that is a meaningful sum of revenue for Hasbro in general). That has to include a decent number of new buyers - the existing base doesn't do that.

Maybe so. I think you are extrapolating a good bit here. But ok, they are seeing a nice bump 1 year in.

Edit: See posts below. I think the idea that there are a lot of gamers who didn't jump into 5E on Day 1 would explain a lot and I did not consider it. It fits your assessment and corrects mine.

 

[BryonD]

We also have the retail surveys:

http://www.enworld.org/forum/conten...-s-Quarterly-Hobby-Game-Rankings#.VcdOZUKJl0c

An increase from $15 million to $25 million per year over the last 2 years. The market has grown, and a lot of that must now be spent on those 3 books, as they are very much the top seller.s

Going back to Amazon. If amazon sells more then ever, and ranks are higher then ever...again, someone must be buying them. In terms of shifting from B&Ns...thats true for all books, D&D is selling well compared to all books. Selling better compared to all books then 3.5 or 4E. But the thing that stands out is sustainability. Thats whats different. That takes us back a long way for D&D.

Don't worry, I will let you know 6 months from now. We will see if it continues.

I don't think that really speaks to my question.

I have no doubt that they have massively grown over the past two years. And when you talk about sales "over the past year" you are including you and me.
They got a huge bounce at release and a ton of fans bought this great new game. Compared to two years prior the idea that the had a huge bump is a no-brainer.

What I'm saying at Month 1 to Month 6 and then look at Month 7 to Month 12. The lack of fall off is pretty amazing.

As to "if it continues", that isn't really a fair standard for 5E to be held to. I mean, it will likely to be doing pretty comparable to right now 6 months form now. It *IS* a really good game and it isn't going to run into a cliff. But sooner than later it will lag just because.

Again, I'm not challenging the massive success of 5E. My question was quite specifically "who is still buying so many PHBs?" It is pretty amazing.
Mistwell says that there really are THAT MANY people suddenly discovering D&D (my words, not his) and I don't have a better answer.
I'm inclined to accept that and simply retreat to the position that I was forcing "typical" onto a highly untypical point in time.

 

[BryonD]

Check how much the DnD reddit page has grown in all this time.
http://redditmetrics.com/r/DnD

There are alot of posts from new people getting into the hobby

That doesn't show more people getting "into the hobby". It just shows more people on the DnD page. Many of them may or may not have been in the hobby already.

Though, it is insightful because the answer may be that a great number of people turned off by D&D are hearing "its back" and so *those* are the people buying in later months.

Thus, my position that the size of the industry doesn't really change fails to account for D&D market share didn't have to change overnight.

So thanks, good point.

 

[Dimitrios]

When 4e came out, I bought all 3 core books sight unseen within a few weeks of release. I felt sufficiently burned by that decision that, when 5e came out, I waited a while and finally took the plunge about 6 months in. I wonder to what extent the sustained sales are driven by people like me trickling back into the fold.

 

[TerraDave]

I don't think that really speaks to my question.

... My question was quite specifically "who is still buying so many PHBs?" It is pretty amazing.
Mistwell says that there really are THAT MANY people suddenly discovering D&D (my words, not his) and I don't have a better answer.
I'm inclined to accept that and simply retreat to the position that I was forcing "typical" onto a highly untypical point in time.

Over the process, all 3+ years of it, Mearls has always emphasized that there are always new people interested in D&D or trying to get into it. I think part of the goal of all this was to appeal to the existing base of gamers (us) but another was to cater to new players (them) and keep them playing. In the Tomb Show interview, he took as the main sign of success that people seemed to keep using the books and playing after buying.

 

[BryonD]

Over the process, all 3+ years of it, Mearls has always emphasized that there are always new people interested in D&D or trying to get into it. I think part of the goal of all this was to appeal to the existing base of gamers (us) but another was to cater to new players (them) and keep them playing. In the Tomb Show interview, he took as the main sign of success that people seemed to keep using the books and playing after buying.

Agree completely.

That doesn't mean that the % of the population playing D&D (or TTRPGs) grows, just that there are new players every day, just as there are players who move on every day.

Staying on the front end of younger, newer players (aka 'not Bryon') is critical to long term success.

 

[Talmek]

Who do you think is buying all these books?

I love 5E. I'm well into the "its is woefully undersupported" camp, but that doesn't take anything away from the merits of the core 3 books.

I would be careful comparing numbers to the 3E days, however. Yes, Amazon sells a ton more stuff. But a lot of people back then bought their books from Brick and Mortar stores while swearing that they would never abandon those beloved anchors of the hobby. Now those B&Ms are long gone (exceptions noted) and those same people are reading about D&D on their kindle.

Plus 3E was competing for gaming budgets against a swarm of 3PPs from day 1.

Again, I'm not challenging the success of 5E (to date). I love it and I'm glad to see it is off to a solid start. But I don't see evidence that hordes of new players are jumping into the hobby each week. The RPG fanbase pretty much seems to be in the same range. A whole lot of them are playing 5E. But most of them bought the books already. I can see a steady trickle of buys for players in groups plus the perpetual roll of new blood. But that seems pretty small compared to the enduring numbers that are suggested here. Either those people are coming from somewhere, or the data is harder to interpret.
I'm not claiming it is either. I don't know.

I can tell you that in my neck of the woods (southeast Texas - aka the home of "D&D is evil demon-worship" camp) that more people, especially those 18-25, seem to be interested in D&D specifically. I personally have met 20+ folks that were walking into the FLGS (which just had to rent a space double that of it's original location from the growth of the hobby in this area over the last 6 1/2 years) asking about it, browsing books, and looking for games to try it out in. Having spoken with the owners (two brothers that went into a 50/50 joint venture) their revenue recently had started to "even out" between MtG sales and TTRPGs. The store's group bulletin board (literally - it's a corkboard that folks who are looking for local groups use) has never been so full as the last time I visited.

I've been following D&D in all it's iterations specifically in this area since 2006 and I can without a doubt say that it's bigger than it ever has been based on the number of FLGS (+2 total since 2006 and still in business) that have opened and the number of personal contacts I have made from folks that are interested in the game. I'm also doing my part by introducing my kids (5 total) to the hobby, and for the time being they are loving it and following the release schedule almost as fanatically as I am.

Based on what I can see in my area - it's a good time for the game and the TTRPG hobby as a whole.